Fantasy Football Redraft: Who's in, who's out of 1st round in a 12-team league after Week 3?

We're three weeks into the NFL season. It's right about that time when your prior convictions from a months-long offseason become completely useless and the data we get in the first month of the season takes much more priority. Now, that's not to say players you believe in who haven't gotten it done can't turn it around. As my friend Sigmund Bloom from FootballGuys likes to say, You can be right and wrong about a player in one season."

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There is still hope but we're at the point where we need to adjust. The best players in the game, or those we expected to be at the top, are no exceptions. With three weeks of data in the bank, let's re-rack the first round to see who would be in and who would be out if drafted today.

Just as a reminder, here were the top-12 picks in Yahoo ADP over the summer:

• 1.1 Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Bengals

• 1.2 Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons

• 1.3 Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles

• 1.4 Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions

• 1.5 Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings

• 1.6 CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys

• 1.7 Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers

• 1.8 Derrick Henry, RB, Ravens

• 1.9 Nico Collins, WR, Texans

• 1.10 Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions

• 1.11 Malik Nabers, WR, Giants

• 1.12 Ashton Jeanty, RB, Raiders

Who's inLocks

Rams WR Puka Nacua leads all flex-eligible players in fantasy points (59) despite not scoring a receiving touchdown yet. He did take a long run into the end zone in Week 2. The efficiency and usage for Nacua has been outrageous through three games. He's been targeted on 43.2% of his routes and averages 4.11 yards per route run. In defense of the summer ADP (16th overall), he only fell to the second round of drafts over concerns about Matthew Stafford's back amid constant negative reports. As long as Stafford is out there, Nacua will just print production in the Rams offense. That's still an if scenario over the course of the season, but for right now, I can make a strong case that Nacua should be ranked as the WR1 rest of season.

Colts RB Jonathan Taylor has been the biggest beneficiary of the Colts transforming into not just a functional but a dangerous offense with Daniel Jones under center. I'm raising my hand; I just don't think we talked enough about Taylor this offseason. I know I certainly fixated on which, if any, receiver would get a boost with Jones in the mix, but didn't put enough emphasis on the fact that Taylor would see an increase in receiving production and goal-line chances if Anthony Richardson Sr. was removed. Taylor ranks fifth among running backs with an 81% share of his team's touches and is one of three running backs with three-plus carries at the goal-line. If we were to redraft today, I would strongly consider Taylor as the first overall selection.

We should talk about it

Bills RB James Cook is the other running back we just did not talk about enough this summer. I know on the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast that we weren't negative on Cook, but he was just kind of there in the discussion; never a priority highlight player. That seems a little insane for a good, productive player in an elite offense paired with Josh Allen. He's a workhorse back who trails only Taylor in fantasy production at the running back position. Cook leads all running backs with four carries on the goal line this season.

Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba is right alongside Nacua this season from an efficiency standpoint. Among wide receivers to run 60-plus routes this season, he's the only other player to be targeted on 40% of his routes and clear 20% first downs per route run. The third-year receiver took a major step last season and has only continued to get better. I don't see anything fluky about his production. He has earned every bit of this and has excellent chemistry with Sam Darnold.

Who's outLocks

Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb is unfortunately facing a potential stint on IR with a high-ankle sprain. If he were healthy, he would have been in the conversation with some other guys as my No. 1 overall pick. I had him ranked as the clear WR2 going into the season, and he was delivering on that promise in the first two weeks for an offense that will have to take to the air to cover for a poor defense. If he only misses 2-3 weeks, that's no big deal, but he wouldn't be a first-round pick right this second based on the injury.

Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty is the one first-rounder who has no place among the top-12 selections right now. I know people love to dunk on rookies who go too high and ultimately fall short, but very little of this has to do with Jeanty's play through three weeks. He's gained 101% of his rushing yards after contact this season. No, that's not a typo. The Raiders have allowed the fewest average yards before contact per carry this season, as the run-blocking and overall design of the offense have been a mess. The fact that the Raiders look like a team that won't score many points, has a bad defense and also appears intent on working Dylan Laube and Zamir White in on passing downs just makes this a total nightmare for fantasy. I didn't have Jeanty as a top-12 pick heading into the season and I definitely wouldn't now.

We should talk about it

Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase being capable of surviving the Jake Browning era was a much more enjoyable theory before we watched what happened in Week 3. Still, I'm willing to hang onto how we saw Browning pepper Chase with layup targets when he got in the game in Week 2 over what Brian Flores did to the backup quarterback last week. Still, I wouldn't argue with someone who wants to elevate a different wideout who actually has his starting quarterback over Chase as a top-12 receiver. I'm just not quite sure who that person would be outside of Nacua.

Texans WR Nico Collins definitely got off to a poor start in Week 1 but has amassed 11 catches for 156 yards and two touchdowns since then. Yes, the Texans are a mess and the pass protection is a big issue. But that was all true in 2024 when Collins was one of the best wide receivers in fantasy. He's been targeted on 29% of his routes run this year and is still performing like an alpha. I'd probably still consider him a first rounder but I'd be willing to hear the argument of those wanting to jump ship.

My Round 1 picks if we redrafted today

• 1.1 Jonathan Taylor

• 1.2 Puka Nacua

• 1.3 Bijan Robinson

• 1.4 Christian McCaffrey

• 1.5 Jahmyr Gibbs

• 1.6 Saquon Barkley

• 1.7 Amon-Ra St. Brown

• 1.8 Justin Jefferson

• 1.9 Malik Nabers

• 1.10 Ja'Marr Chase

• 1.11 Derrick Henry

• 1.12 Nico Collins