Jets vs. Dolphins Monday Night Football odds, predictions: Best bets, player prop wagers

We might need to start with a disclaimer: It won't likely be as good as it was last week.

Lions-Ravens produced a win on the side, a sweep on three player props, and two of three anytime touchdown bets for a total of 6.4 units to the good.

It's not just that it's hard to have the script," but it's easier to hit bets on things to happen, when it's a game that is expected to be high-event and high-scoring - something that we might not have in the first of two games on this edition of Monday Night Football.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 44.5)

Mike McDaniel isn't interested in moral victories, but it's a bad sign that the Dolphins - a team that has had its effort level questioned to start the season - played as hard as they could in Buffalo and still lost by 10.

The Jets aren't the same challenge as the Bills, but even under the assumption the Fins are fired up to be there, they may not have the firepower that many expect.

New York's quarterback situation might be uncertain, but the betting market doesn't seem to care whether it's Justin Fields or Tyrod Taylor, and through the small sample of each playing around a game and a half, they have an identical -0.096 EPA/play per dropback. Those subpar stats are to be expected from a team that is going with something of a fill-in strategy at QB this season.

It is problematic for the Dolphins, that Tua Tagovailoa - who they've invested in long-term - has a similar number at -0.078, and been given the fourth-worst passing grade by PFF this season.

Defensively, the Dolphins have been below average against the run, and way below average against the pass, while the Jets have at least shown they can stop the run. Miami stayed in last week's game with Buffalo as long as it did because the Dolphins could run on the Bills (0.3 EPA allowed per rushing play). The Jets have allowed -0.2 EPA/play on opponent running plays.

Miami's home-field advantage is usually predicated on early-season matchups where the heat is affecting the opponent, but at night that can be minimized, especially with the Jets having just played an afternoon game in Tampa Bay last week.

Betting on New York comes with trepidation about the offense's capacity, but with Miami's quarterback playing on a similar level to Taylor and Fields so far, and the existing holes on the Dolphins' roster (offensive line, secondary), the Jets' offense has an easier task.

Pick: Jets +2.5

Player propsTua Tagovailoa: Under 240.5 passing yards (-115)

In keeping with Tagovailoa's poor passing grade, the murmurs persist around NFL circles that the Dolphins' quarterback is one of the easiest to prepare for, as teams know that after the first read, McDaniel's offense asks for a quick check-down swing pass.

The Jets' defense hasn't been particularly good this season, but they saw Aaron Rodgers in his first game with a new offense, followed by Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield. Tagovailoa was able to muster only 146 passing yards in Buffalo despite needing to keep up with the Bills. Plus, Miami is actually favored here, meaning the game should be played at a more conservative pace.

Braelon Allen: Over 16.5 rushing yards (-118)

After murmurs that Breece Hall's role as the No. 1 running back for the Jets might be in jeopardy, the incumbent made headlines in Week 1 with a massive statistical game.

It's been grim ever since.

Hall had just 50 yards on 19 carries the last two weeks, and the carry split between him and Braelon Allen was 9-6, with Allen out-gaining his teammate with 30 yards against the Bucs.

Given the lack of production from Hall, why couldn't the carry split be more even, and ample, in a tightly-lined game expected to be closer than the last two the Jets have played?

Even if Allen gets only five totes, running for 17+ yards shouldn't be a problem.

Josh Reynolds: Over 21.5 receiving yards (-118)

When hired as the new Jets head coach, Aaron Glenn brought with him Tanner Engstand - the Lions passing game coordinator since 2020 - to be his offensive coordinator. One of their early moves was to add former Lions receiver Josh Reynolds. In Week 1, despite catching only two passes, Reynolds played 97% of the snaps, only to miss the last two games with an injury.

With a clean bill of health for Monday night, Reynolds- who caught 40 balls two seasons ago in Detroit - should get a few looks in an effort to take advantage of a thin Dolphins secondary, and as a big-bodied target down the field, one or two receptions should clear this yardage total.

Anytime touchdownsJustin Fields +240

Fields scored two rushing touchdowns in Week 1 against the Steelers, and we're supposed to believe he's not just as likely to score as anyone else on the field?

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Since his rookie season, when the Bears' offensive coaching staff hadn't figured out how to use his legs yet, Fields has run for a touchdown in 15 of 35 full games played. That's a rate of 42.8%, which carries implied odds of +134. At +240, Fields to score on Monday night is a bet worth making.

Ollie Gordon +310

Sometimes it's not how many," but how."

Gordon was on the field for just 15 snaps last week, but he was given nine carries, with three in the red zone, converting one for his first career touchdown.

The rookie from Oklahoma State has emerged as the short-yardage, power" running back for an offense that's not known for being able to push tacklers around.

In a rare position as the favorite, the Dolphins should find themselves near the goal line once or twice, and Gordon did well enough as the alternative to the slight-but-speedy De'Von Achane, that he should at least get a chance to get back in the end zone.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.