Week 7 Fantasy Football: 6 player projections that don't make sense

Hello Yahoo! I'm Derek Carty of EV Analytics and the creator of THE BLITZ projection system, which if you have Yahoo+, you'll notice is available this year to help you manage your teams. Each Friday morning, I'll be digging into three players projected to play above their usual level, and three players projected to play below their usual level. (I'll also be doing an AMA in the Yahoo Fantasy Discord every Thursday at 3 PM ET, so be sure to stop by, say hi, and get your questions answered.)

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Hopefully, you listened last week and grabbed Michael Mayer, who posted the fourth-highest score among tight ends. Luther Burden III also flashed his potential, and could be even more intriguing this week if DJ Moore were to miss the Bears' game with his injury. On to Week 7 ...

Deebo Samuel Sr., Commanders

THE BLITZ Week 7 Projection: 6.9 receptions, 91 yards, 0.62 TD

Week 7 vs. ROS: WR3 vs. WR12

Matchups don't get a lot better than this. Deebo squares off against what may be a league-worst Dallas defense that happens to also run the league's highest rate of zone coverage by a substantial margin. That should mean plenty of opportunities for catches for one of the league's premier YAC men. Plus, the game is indoors, the fourth-fastest paced of the week and Washington has the third-highest implied total of the week. Even if Terry McLaurin returns and Samuel loses some volume, this is still a smash spot.

Caleb Williams, Bears

THE BLITZ Week 7 Projection: 228 passing yards, 1.76 passing TD, 33 rushing yards, 0.27 rushing TD

Week 7 vs. ROS: QB7 vs. QB15

While the matchup against Dallas is one of the league's best for defensive reasons, the one against the Saints is one of the league's best for pace reasons. The Saints run their offense at a faster pace than any other team by a huge amount, and because they are bad on both sides of the ball, this leads to a lot of drives and plays.

The volume spike for the Bears here pushes Williams up into very firm QB1 territory for this week. Plus, he's starting to look more comfortable in Ben Johnson's offense, and has plenty of weapons to throw to. He also sneakily has the highest designed run rate inside the red zone of any quarterback not named Jalen Hurts this season, creating some very real rushing TD upside.

Jordan Whittington, Rams

THE BLITZ Week 7 Projection: 5.8 targets, 3.9 receptions, 53 yards, 0.30 TD

Week 7 vs. ROS: 11.1 PPR points vs. 3.6 PPR points per game

The Whittington play is more about ceiling than mean, but oh man, is the ceiling high. Puka Nacua's role may be the most valuable in all of fantasy, and while Whittington isn't the raw talent Puka is, there is still massive upside with Nacua likely to miss this game and Whittington likely to step into his spot. Whittington is far from a household name, being buried below some of the league's top receivers in his two years in the league, but if you've paid close attention to what the Rams have said about him, this is a guy with big-time talent.

They've talked about how much they love him since the day he was drafted, often sounding eerily similar to how they've talked about Nacua. While we can't give Whittington anywhere near Puka's volume as a mean projection, that level of usage is very much within the range of outcomes. Especially if you find yourself an underdog this week (maybe even after the 1 p.m. games finish), taking a shot on this upside could be a path to victory.

Ashton Jeanty, Raiders

THE BLITZ Week 7 Projection: 16.3 rush attempts, 3.4 receptions, 93 yards, 0.52 TD

Week 7 vs. ROS: RB14 vs. RB5

The Raiders came out this week and said they'd like to get Jeanty 20 carries per game, but that seems almost impossible in this game against the Chiefs. Las Vegas is a 12-point underdog on the road in Arrowhead, and they have the lowest implied team total on the board at 16.75. That means heavily reduced TD chances and a game script that simply will not allow the Raiders to run the ball much once they fall behind.

Jeanty is definitely a buy-low right now with plenty of volume sure to come over the rest of the season, but you may want to wait one more week until his value hits the floor.

Rico Dowdle, Panthers

THE BLITZ Week 7 Projection: 12.6 rush attempts, 1.6 receptions, 66 yards, 0.48 TD

Week 7 vs. Weeks 5 and 6: RB27 vs. RB1

Dowdle is coming off two monster games with Chuba Hubbard on the shelf: 219 yards followed by 239 yards. With as good as he's been, there are many who assume he'll be the clear lead back with Hubbard returning this week - the you can't put the toothpaste back in the tube" logic. The problem here is that the Panthers and Dave Canales absolutely love Hubbard.

They've raved for the last year and a half how tough he is, how he embodies what it means to be a Panther, how he's a big part of their future. They gave him a contract extension less than a year ago. What Dowdle did can't be ignored, but this looks like, at best, Dowdle running 1A to Hubbard's 1B, and at worst, Hubbard being the clear lead back and Dowdle just getting more work as the backup than he had been previously. Anyone assuming Dowdle is simply just the man now in Carolina hasn't been paying attention to Carolina outside the past two games.

CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys*

THE BLITZ Week 7 Projection: 7.4 targets, 5.2 receptions, 67 yards, 0.40 TD

Week 7 vs. ROS: WR16 vs. WR7

Lamb seems likely to return on Sunday after missing Weeks 4, 5 and 6 due to a high ankle sprain, and while you certainly need to get him into your lineups, he may not produce to quite the degree you're hoping right off the bat. Data-driven injury analyst Deepak Chona says that players returning from this type of injury typically see a ~20% dip" in production, plus some re-injury risk in their first 2-4 weeks back. This meshes with how head coach Brian Schottenheimer has talked about Lamb's (as well as two other players') return (H/T Coachspeak Index Discord):

We're excited that they're trending to play. There's a ramp-up. CeeDee would probably want to play 85 plays. We'll be smart about what we do with them."

This doesn't sound like he'll be severely limited, but enough to take him from the truly elite" tier down to the merely great" tier.