Fantasy Football Stats to Know: What are air yards, and which receivers could feast (or famine) based on that data?
If you are new to the Church of Air Yards, let me be the first to welcome you. If you are a grizzled veteran of this fake game, then you certainly have heard of this stat, and most likely have used this stat, even if it is kind of a pain to find. The Church of Air Yards welcomes you back. Y'all can skip this brief tutorial and jump to the buy/sell guys below.
For my newbies, air yards measure how far downfield the ball travels. If the ball is spotted on the 50-yard line and the quarterback throws it to a receiver at the 35-yard line, that's 15 air yards.
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Why is this important, you ask? Think of it this way: You want your receiver getting deep downfield shots, right?
Let's keep the ball at the midline. Now imagine Ja'Marr Chase getting three targets of 50 air yards downfield, meaning he'll get three opportunities to score a 50-yard touchdown. Let's say he converts on just one of those passes - that's 12 points in PPR formats.
Conversely, let's say Chase gets a bunch of screen passes at the line of scrimmage, so zero air yards but because he's Chase, he's able to grind out five yards for every one of these screens.
He'd have to catch EIGHT of those lame screens to piece together 12 PPR points (eight for the receptions, four for the yardage). That's a TON of screens and that's also assuming he'd average five yards per screen, tough to do because I promise you he's getting cut down at the line of scrimmage at least a couple of times.
For real-life and fantasy purposes, we obviously want a mix of deep shots and layups but all things considered, you can't talk about receiver volume without talking about air yards ... I mean, you can, but just know it's an incomplete look.
This next bit is actually quite important but one stat that needs a little clearing up is what I call air yard conversion rate. Essentially, how many air yards are being converted into actual receiving yards.
League average conversion rate is 71.0%, meaning, for every 100 air yards, a league-average receiver will convert that into 71 receiving yards.
This number can be above 100% as well! Puka Nacua, for example, is posting a 103% air yard conversion rate because of his after-the-catch ability. Let's say he catches a pass that traveled 10 air yards but he does what he does and runs after the catch and picks up 20 more yards. His air yard conversion rate would be 300% (30 rec yards from 10 air yards).
OK, with that, let's talk about which wideouts could bloom and which could bust over the next few weeks, based on air yard data.
All numbers via Sports Info Solutions, minimum 100 routes run unless otherwise specified.
DAVANTE ADAMS: 113.9 air yards/game (3rd-most)With Puka sidelined, Adams is an obvious choice to potentially explode statistically over the next few weeks.
Only Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jordan Addison (yes, for real) are seeing more air yards per game but while the touchdowns have been flowing, the yardage has been underwhelming. Adams has had fewer than 60 yards in five of seven games thus far.
Plus, his 49% catch rate (which obviously directly impacts air yard conversion rate) is the lowest of his career. As his chemistry with Stafford grows, I'm anticipating that catch rate to improve, meaning he'll start to add yardage to all the touchdowns he currently catching.
Fantasy advice: It won't be cheap but see what it takes to pry Adams off his current team. If you have him, continue to fire him up for the foreseeable future.
George Pickens (another outside X) is averaging 108.9 air yards/game, meaning at least in this particular volume metric, Pierce is right there with the top X's in the game right now.
Some of Pierce's numbers are inflated after Josh Downs missed the Colts' Week 7 game but still, it can't be understated how well Pierce has been playing when given opportunities.
He's cracked double-digit PPR points in three of five games played this season. More impressive is that he's done that without scoring a single touchdown all season. I think that changes soon, potentially this week against a Titans team that has struggled to contain outside receivers (watch for Pierce in my matchup column this Friday!).
Fantasy advice: He's only 20% rostered, so if he's available, go and pick him up.
Olave FINALLY broke through in the stat sheet last week after catching two touchdowns, this after the volume cultists have been watching Olave average an absurd 10.14 targets per game (fourth-most).
This is what's nuts: Olave can go even higher. His 58.6% air yard conversion rate ranks 66th out of a possible 93 qualified receivers. (See above if you're looking for what air yard conversion percentage means.)
He trails players like Keon Coleman and Romeo Doubs in terms of air yard conversion rates. Nothing against those two players but Olave is a full tier ahead of those guys in terms of talent. If his conversion rates approach league average, we're talking a player averaging 75+ yards per game, or a 1,300-yard pace.
Fantasy advice: It's hard to say he's a buy -ow coming off a two-TD performance but Olave managers could worry that it was a flukey game. Make the call, find out what the price tag is. I wouldn't aggressively pursue but Olave could surprise in the second half of the season.
Mooney is an incredibly intriguing buy-low candidate. In his three healthy games, Mooney averaged 6.7 targets per game. When you combine this with his air yards volume, Mooney is very much a player who could provide top 25-ish returns to close out the season.
Fantasy advice: If he's hanging around the waiver wire, stash and see. If you need receiver help, he's a perfect low-cost trade candidate because, let's be real, he hasn't done ANYTHING in the box score yet.
He's seen 410 air yards but has 423 actual receiving yards. His 103.2% air yard conversion rate doesn't seem even remotely sustainable. As a reminder, a league-average receiver will convert about 71% of his air yards into actual receiving yards.
Last year, Flowers posted a more reasonable 84.7% air yard conversion rate.
If he regresses closer to his air yard conversion average from last year, the volume metrics overall look shakyyyyyyy. His 7.7 targets per game are strong but still rank as tied for 18th and as listed above, he's currently 40th in air yards per game.
He's currently the WR24 in PPR in terms of per-game scoring but his volume metrics would indicate he's closer to the WR35.
Fantasy advice: Flowers has name value. See if you can move him for a solid RB2 to give you better positional flexibility, especially with all the byes coming up.
Metcalf is an ideal sell-high candidate as he's put up solid stats while also possessing solid name value.
The Steelers' No. 1 is currently a top-24 fantasy receiver, but that being said, you could make the argument that he's significantly outperformed his volume metrics. He's 37th among WRs in targets and 30th in air yards per game.
His 241 yards after catch is the second most in the NFL and as a result, he's posting an unsustainable 87.9% air yard conversion rate.
For comparison, when looking at other predominantly outside X's we find that George Pickens has a 79.7% air yard conversion rate and he's been playing out of his mind! Nico Collins was in the same ballpark at 80.8%. But players like Marvin Harrison Jr. and A.J. Brown have posted 62.3% and 64.7% conversion rates, respectively.
YAC yardage is fickle and incredibly difficult to sustain. If that dries up and Metcalf comes back much closer to league average in terms of YAC and air yard conversion rates, his fantasy production could shrink considerably.
Fantasy advice: Try to swap DK for a more reliable WR2. I'd much rather have Tetairoa McMillan, Michael Pittman Jr., Rome Odunze or Ladd McConkey, all players who are currently averaging similar PPR points per game to Metcalf. And, if you're in a strong position, see if the Nico Collins manager has any interest in a potential swap.