Fantasy Football: George Kittle ready to celebrate National TE day, plus 9 more storylines that will define Week 8

Each week, fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth goes through 10 storylines that will define the week. After seven weeks of chaos, how will the trends of fantasy football define Week 8?

National TE Day

Happy National George Kittle Day!

Ever since National TE Day became official in 2019, Kittle's self-created holiday has been a day of reckoning against opposing defenses. In his 108 career games not on National TE Day, Kittle has put up great numbers, averaging 64 receiving yards per game and 11.1 half-PPR fantasy points. But on that one special day of the year, Kittle has averaged 89 receiving yards per game and over 14 fantasy points.

I believe in Shanahan

Full article: https://t.co/vSRNfemmCshttps://t.co/wUKNTJALtepic.twitter.com/Z4mREVJ3Ne

- Joel Smyth (@fantasysmyth) October 20, 2025

Considering he had his first zero catch day of his career last week, there's a double narrative here. He knows it, Kyle Shanahan knows it and his quarterback, whoever it may be, knows it. The signs point to a bounce-back performance, even against a tough matchup with the Texans. Kittle doesn't often struggle multiple games in a row, and although the Texans are better than average versus TEs, they are very good against WRs, potentially making Kittle more of a focus. So far, the Texans defense has played Mark Andrews without Lamar Jackson, and not much else at the position.

Derrick Henry gets the return of Lamar Jackson

If you held onto Derrick Henry, this is the week you've been waiting for. Off the bye, Lamar Jackson is back, bringing with him the No. 1 yards before contact advantage on the week. Chicago is overall a good matchup, but they have improved since returning from their own bye in Week 6. In terms of rushing fantasy production allowed, which is basically all that matters for Henry, they have fought their way back to being middle of the pack.

Given Henry's fantasy start, you wouldn't expect him to be averaging five yards per carry with solid efficiency numbers. The issue has been the volume and scoring opportunities, in addition to his own fumbling issues. Surprisingly, Baltimore finds itself as touchdown favorites versus Chicago, setting him up for another 20+ carry game if Baltimore doesn't revert to a pass-heavy plan with Jackson. The goal-line attempts have been there in terms of volume, just without the production. A Jackson-led offense gives me hope that his positive TD regression hits, the offense goes run-heavy and the concerns dwindle as Henry's hardest fantasy RB schedule to begin 2025 is officially behind him.

Rome Odunze: Bounce back or panic?

After starting off as the fantasy WR3 through Month 1, Odunze has produced back-to-back floor games after his early bye week. There's been some panic on his first-read utilization and dramatic drop off in receptions, which is understandable. Overall, my initial thought is to relax given the lack of passing success for Chicago as a whole, rather than just Odunze.

If it's the same story versus Baltimore, however, then real panic may start to set in.

Rome Odunze first-read target rates:

Four games before the bye week
28%
38%
29%
32%

Two games following the bye
17%
19%

(Source: @FantasyPtsData)

- Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 20, 2025

The Baltimore secondary is an amazing matchup for Odunze, specifically. Compared to the average NFL team, the Ravens secondary runs a high amount of one-high safety looks and man coverage. It matches up favorably for the Chicago WR, whose yards per route doubles against man coverage compared to zone, and sees a 60% increase versus one-high safety defenses on top of it. There's a high chance Odunze finds himself back in the end zone as he's set up for a huge day in Baltimore.

No Jayden Daniels

Jayden Daniels is once again missing time, thrusting Marcus Mariota back into the starting lineup. With both Washington WRs potentially returning, Mariota will be relied on plenty against Kansas City. The Chiefs' rushing defense falling off has been balanced by a dominant passing defense, specifically against fantasy WRs.

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Deebo Samuel Sr. had a great game with Mariota in Week 4, but with the pass play rate being tied for the lowest in the NFL with Mariota, the volume doesn't make me confident. Samuel had nine targets over Mariota's two starts combined, without Terry McLaurin playing. When it comes to Bill Croskey-Merritt, he has been wildly inconsistent, but at least he was efficient with Mariota. His volume was still low at that point, but with Mariota's designed rush rate being even higher than Jayden Daniels', the rushing offense and Croskey-Merritt's efficiency didn't change dramatically. His main issue comes more from the potential of the Chiefs pulling away than it does from their ability to stop the run.

There could be hope for Alvin Kamara

Last season, Alvin Kamara led all running backs in expected fantasy PPG, leading him to his RB5 finish in PPG. Two major changes have dropped him down to the 19th-ranked volume in terms of expected PPG this season: 1) A decrease in receiving due to QB and playcalling changes and 2) The increase in Kendre Miller's workload.

The receiving has slightly improved, but not by much, with still only one designed target on the season. However, with no Kendre Miller for the rest of the season, Kamara's overall volume should bounce back. Add in Miller's volume to Kamara's, and the combination would be nearly identical to Kamara's No. 1 volume of 2024.

The question is, how much of Miller's volume shifts to Kamara, and how much sticks with a new RB2 of Devin Neal. Watch to see the Week 8 usage; if Kamara can dominate the RB side, he can find himself as a more reliable fantasy flex going forward.

Bo Nix back?

After 27 quarters had passed, Bo Nix was the QB15 in fantasy football. Then the fourth quarter hit versus New York. He is now the QB6. Scoring 35.6 fantasy points in a single quarter will do that for you. It hasn't been pretty, but the sophomore slump can start to be saved going forward.

In Week 8, Nix vaults back to a near must-start as a fantasy quarterback as he faces off against the Dallas defense, which is allowing the most fantasy points to QBs on the season. Compared to the average, the Cowboys defense is 7.8 PPG worse vs. fantasy QBs. So, even if we removed the Week 7 boom game, Nix's expected points versus Dallas based on his first six weeks would be north of 24. Nix needs to stack good days while he has the easy matchups in order to be trusted and steer away from a Year 2 slide.

Breece Hall trade is nigh?

The theory of a team feeding a player on their way to a huge day, followed by trading them away once hot, can be put to the test here. Breece Hall has failed to hit seven fantasy points in each of his last two games, but he has the potential to go for much more than seven in Week 8. Cincinnati has been 32nd against fantasy running backs this season with a banged-up defensive line. On top of that, it is 31st against receiving backs, which may play a key role if Tyrod Taylor is indeed the starter.

Hall has not found himself in many positive game scripts this year, but he has a better shot than usual versus the Bengals, although New York is still a touchdown underdog. Even with a disappointing start in fantasy, Hall is No. 1 in the league in explosive carries. If he can break one that finally lands in the end zone, or converts on his first goal-line TD of the year, the Jets' star can pay the patience off with a ceiling game in Week 8.

If he is to land with another team soon, there is a high chance of it being a massive improvement for the top-10 RB talent.

Quinshon Judkins could be in for a rough one

Talent, however, can only take a player so far. In games where the Browns have won this season, Judkins has had 16 and 26 fantasy points, respectively. In their four losses with Judkins, he's only averaged 12.3 fantasy PPG. The Patriots are currently projected to win by a touchdown at home.

New England is currently sixth-best against fantasy running backs, but are actually No. 1 versus fantasy rushing production when adjusting to schedules. Six out of seven teams' RBs have failed to hit 65 yards on the ground versus the Patriots, with zero rushing touchdowns over the last four games.

That said, over the next month, Cleveland has a beautiful RB schedule once they get past the Patriots' defense.

Jaylen Waddle shadow week

When any QB has under 200 passing yards in over half their games, it makes it difficult to trust their fantasy weapons. Waddle was incredible in his first two games without Tyreek Hill, but now finds himself in a prove-it spot. The Falcons matchup gives him the opportunity to show he's more than just a matchup-dependent ceiling play; rather, a weekly start the rest of the way.

Quarterbacks vs man and zone coverage pic.twitter.com/V9Hcc4hbXS

- Football Insights (@fball_insights) October 23, 2025

Atlanta's star CB A.J. Terrell is likely to shadow Waddle, making a difficult matchup even worse. Waddle was held to one reception versus Cleveland last week, which ranks third-best in passing YPG allowed on the season. Atlanta is over 30 YPG better than Cleveland. The Falcons' combination of high pressure and zone coverage schemes makes for a recipe for failure when looking at the tendencies of Tua Tagovailoa in 2025. Tagovailoa has been great against man coverage this season, but he's not going to see much of it on Sunday.

If Waddle can overcome the odds, then I won't doubt him going forward (until Tua's in the snow).

Tet and Andy

Since the beginning of the 2024 season, Andy Dalton has provided 3% more fantasy points per start for his receivers than Bryce Young. Not only has he not been a downgrade, but, technically, an upgrade. Last season with Dalton at the helm, Diontae Johnson had a 30% target share and above two yards per route. I'd say it's safe to say that Tetairoa McMillan is the better talent at this point, in comparison.

Buffalo's weakness in the secondary has been on the outside, where McMillan lines up 85% of the time. As touchdown underdogs at home, I'd be comfortable going back to McMillan in Week 8 after a poor matchup last Sunday, even without Young.