Revisiting 7 fantasy football truths we wish we knew back in the heart of draft season

Seven weeks are in the books for the new NFL season. Trends are emerging, stars are doing star things. And we start looking back at what we got right and what we got wrong from our summer fantasy prep.

It's been a good fantasy year for me (not that any outsider should care; focus on your own teams, I'm fine with that). Most of my teams are contending. A few are very good, a couple not so good. I'm engaged in the present, and excited in the future.

But for today's assignment, let's focus on the past. Let's list some fantasy truths and emerging stories that I wish someone from the future had told me about in August.

Javonte Williams will be healthy and productive again

Last year I had an open mind to Williams, given that he was two years removed from major knee injuries. But he failed to launch in Denver, and I had low expectations when the Cowboys signed him for 2025. Maybe he'd scoop up some boring volume, but surely there was little upside here. I did see Dallas as a potential carnival, but I wasn't expecting Williams to be a ticket-holder.

Thankfully, almost by accident, I did wind up with one Williams share. So at least I'm not totally locked out of his wonderful comeback session - he's sitting RB7 in half-point PPR scoring per game and playing in all packages. Dallas has become a fantasy destination this year - loaded but concentrated offense, leaky defense. Fantasy football as it oughta be.

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Puka Nacua will still be light on touchdown catches - but it won't matter

Nacua was on my fade list and it's definitely my biggest regret of the year. QB Matthew Stafford was just fine despite a summer of limited work, and Sean McVay continues to run an offense with an especially narrow concentration. Sure, new WR Davante Adams has been the red-zone monster, as he always is. And Nacua is now hurt, dealing with an ankle injury. But I should have focused on Nacua's ability to dominate between the 20s and not sweated the fact that he's still a mild disappointment in the red area.

Rico Dowdle will prove better than Chuba Hubbard

This is still a developing story, because Hubbard returned in Week 7 and had a similar market share to Dowdle. But it was Dowdle who had the majority of second-half work in a competitive game, and Dowdle was far more effective with his opportunities (5.3 per touch against 3.4 per touch). Carolina is a winning team this year and although Hubbard received a juicy extension before the season, Dave Canales has to do what's best for his team. I could see Dowdle - who I didn't draft anywhere - taking control of this backfield, even with Hubbard fully available.

Tyler Warren will be this year's precocious tight end

If you wanted some proof of concept for Warren's possible production, we saw it during his final year at Penn State. The stats leap off the page: 104 catches, 1,233 yards, eight touchdown catches and another four touchdown runs. The Indianapolis pass-catching group looked a little crowded and we weren't sure what to expect from Daniel Jones, though it was reasonable to presume he'd be an upgrade over raw Anthony Richardson. It turns out the Jones appointment lifted all boats, and while some upgrades were easier to connect on (Jonathan Taylor was a second-round steal), Warren might have been a harder pick to make, given his lack of experience.

Proactive scrambling will reinvigorate Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes certainly doesn't have to apologize for his production the last two years, but it's been a drop from previous norms. He was merely QB12 and QB8 the last two fantasy seasons, and nowhere near the top of the MVP balloting. This year he was facing the Rashee Rice suspension and cluster injuries with his remaining receivers to start the season, but a renewed interest in scrambling (35.7 yards per game, easily a career best, and four touchdowns) have helped to fill in the gaps. And now the Chiefs have Rice back and a healing receiver room. That's why Mahomes is back as the MVP favorite, and the Chiefs are Super Bowl favorites again.

Sam Darnold's crash landing last year was noise, not signal

Darnold was a smash story for about three months in his lone Minnesota starting campaign, but it was hard to unsee how poorly he played in season-ending losses to the Lions and Rams. With that, Minnesota played the card it felt it needed to - it let Darnold walk and turned things over to second-year QB J.J. McCarthy.

Minnesota can't say it in public, but it would love this decision back. McCarthy has played well for just one quarter in 2025 - and perhaps his current ankle injury is being soft-pedaled simply because McCarthy doesn't look NFL-ready - while Darnold is smashing with his new team, Seattle. Darnold leads the NFL in yards per attempt and he's also carrying a juicy 109.2 rating. And his locked-in relationship with alpha WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba has pushed JSN into the elite level of receivers. With the NFC wide open in 2025, Darnold & Company could be a Super Bowl sleeper.

The Konami Code QB to get in New York is Jaxson Dart, not Justin Fields

I was willing to overlook some of Fields' shortcomings because I figured he'd run proactively and he had very little risk of being benched in New York. It turns out Fields could play poorly enough to lose his job, he's on the precipice of doing just that.

Meanwhile, in the same stadium, Dart has been a revelation. What's especially impressive about Dart is how he keeps producing despite the absence of top receiver Malik Nabers. I do think Dart needs to be a little bit more judicious at times with his running - he seems to take on contact a little bit too aggressively - but he's a fun watch every week and the fantasy scores don't lie. Even despite a soul-crushing loss at Denver last Sunday, the arrow is pointing up with the Giants.