Early Week 9 NFL bets to make right now: Are you ready to fade the Chiefs?

We are heading into NFL Week 9, meaning we are one week away from the exact midpoint of the regular season. This is generally a good time to start checking back in with the futures market. How are your preseason win totals doing? Is it time to reposition in any of those bets with a playback and hedge, double down or simply let it ride? We have enough information to project strength of schedule remaining. Does that bode well for your bets or perhaps raise some concerns?

One example within my personal pending bets is "San Francisco 49ers to Make The Playoffs" at -185. They have a solid record at 5-3, but sit third in a strong division and have suffered so many injuries. I can bet "49ers to Miss The Playoffs" at +245 and guarantee myself a 6.5% ROI.

Before getting into best bets, I always like to give a tip of betting strategy, and this week it would be to check in with your season-long bets. Remember: Even bets clicked in the preseason are not set-and-forget as the season goes on.

Last week was 2-1 week, putting us at five straight winning weeks and 11-2 in that span. My internal pressure is on to deliver, but the concept of getting ahead of the market early in the week is cemented by the results. Here are two bets worth placing now.

Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5, 52.5) at Buffalo Bills

The Kansas City Chiefs are riding a hot streak right now. They have won three straight and five of their last six. Patrick Mahomes has found a bevy of reliable weapons, and the defense remains stout. This team is poised for another playoff run.

Despite the recent results, pricing them as 1.5-point favorites in Buffalo is a number I cannot get to. Right now this line has asymmetric movement risks on each side. This cannot move much further toward the Chiefs and is way more likely to get some Bills sentiment as we move through the week. Based on market-based power rankings right now, the Bills are 2.2 points worse than the Kansas City Chiefs on a neutral field. Factor in the standard 1.5 points for home-field advantage, and this line should be Chiefs -0.7. Obviously the line cannot be -0.7, but it could be Chiefs -0.5 (-115) to better reflect that. I also believe both teams' home-field advantage to be among the strongest in the NFL. It is worth noting the Chiefs' three-game winning streak was all at home and their most recent loss to Jacksonville was a road game. If we raise the Bills' home field from neutral to 2 points, this line becomes even closer to a pick 'em.

The Bills did lose defensive tackle Ed Oliver, a key part of their defensive line, to a torn biceps in Week 8. However, the Chiefs do not have a strong running game. The Chiefs rank first in pass rate over expectation (showing they don't trust the run), and Isiah Pacheco just recently passed Mahomes as the leading rusher on the team, but the RB is now considered week-to-week with a knee injury. The loss of Oliver stings, but less so against the Chiefs than other teams.

Bet: Buffalo Bills +1.5

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 45.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

In NFL betting, sometimes it is important to weed out some statistics that are less sticky" and might just be random. We have to remember we are betting on an oblong-shaped ball that can take some very random bounces and deflections, and some of those arbitrary moments can have large impacts on games and outcomes.

One stat to focus on year over year that's not likely to remain the same is turnovers. Turnovers are considered one of the least sticky stats in the NFL, and often a point where teams are due for positive or negative regression. This season, the Raiders are one of the teams turning the ball over the most, and the Jaguars are forcing turnovers at an incredibly high rate. To me that is more random and happenstance than something predictable, and it is best to pivot and bet the other way.

If we look at the plus-minus of each teams net turnovers, meaning how many the offenses have committed against the number the defense has forced, the Raiders rank 26th with a minus-5 turnover differential. Raiders coach Pete Carroll always puts an emphasis on not turning the ball over, and yet his team is doing the opposite of that. On the other end, the Jaguars rank third with a plus-8 turnover differential.

The Raiders are likely to get Maxx Crosby back, while the Jaguars might be without struggling WR1 Brian Thomas Jr. and TE Brenton Strange remains on IR.

This is a bet on turnovers being a noisy stat that cannot be relied upon, and the injury report swinging this week in favor of Las Vegas.

Bet: Raiders +3 (-105); Raiders ML +145