Fantasy Football: 6 RBs you should look to acquire based on their skill in outside run plays
My army of loyalists who use outside run rates as a predictor of running back success is still small ... but we're growing. If you missed it about six weeks ago, I began stumping for the importance of outside run rates and how fantasy managers could get ahead of the curve if they continued to lean on this stat as a compass for finding future success.
[Upgrade to Fantasy Plus and gain your edge in player projections and much more]
With the trade deadline barreling down on us, I wanted to offer some advice on the most difficult position to trade, that being running backs. And I wanted to attack this by pushing you towards those backs who can run to the outside at a higher clip.
As with all stats, it's not perfect, but choosing running backs who are able to run to the outside continuously will take you in the right direction more often than not.
According to Next Gen Stats, running back carries that go between the tackles have posted a 7.9% explosive run rate this year, whereas outside runs boast a 12.7% explosive run rate.
Any time you have a higher percentage chance of getting big chunk runs, you want to lean into that.
From a matchup standpoint, you also want to pick on teams that struggle to contain outside runs, the thought process behind that being pretty simple: Since outside runs are more likely to yield big-time explosive runs, pick the running backs who can get outside going up against teams that can't stop outside runs.
As the trade deadline looms, let's talk about some backs I believe are good trade/add candidates.
RJ Harvey, BroncosIt has been quite the rocky ride for the rookie in the Rockies. And while his three-touchdown performance on eight touches last week was certainly fluky, his 59.1% outside run rate has my attention.
When I charted him this offseason, I called him an Adam Dunn-type runner; his homers look incredibly impressive but he also strikes out a lot and that's very much the player we've seen in Denver thus far.
That being said, his numbers rushing to the outside are like NSYNC to me: A screaming BUY, BUY, BUY. Per Next Gen Stats he's averaging just 3.73 ypc on outside carries but an explosive 5.72 ypc on inside runs. I alluded to his strikeouts; he's been struck down behind the line of scrimmage a ton, sporting an ugly 34.6% run stuff rate.
But given his charting profile, I am very much of the mind that these things tend to even out. Harvey is too good of a runner, specifically too good on outside runs, for this split to continue much longer.
Also keep in mind who he's playing behind. J.K. Dobbins has been incredibly reliable this year but he's never finished an entire season healthy in his previous five years of service. It's extremely likely Dobbins will miss time at some point and Harvey, if given the chance, could explode.
Zig when they zag. It feels like the ENTIRE fantasy community is telling you to sell Swift as Kyle Monangai is slowly eating into Swift's snap share. That being said, if someone is trying to unload Swift, why not be the guy to try to snag him on the cheap?
Swift is rushing to the outside at an extremely high rate. His 68% outside rush rate is fourth-highest among RBs with 50+ carries.
While Swift is averaging a poor 2.59 ypc on inside carries, his 5.6 ypc average when bouncing to the outside is impressive, outpacing the likes of Bijan Robinson (5.36) and De'Von Achane (5.41).
His schedule over the next few weeks is enticing as he takes on CIN, NYG and MIN in back-to-back-to-back weeks. The Bengals have given up the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, the Giants are dead last in yards per carry allowed (6.12) and the Vikings are bottom-10 in rush yards allowed to running backs.
For the next month, Swift is a rock-solid RB2 with RB1 upside given his schedule.
If the explosive Smith is hanging around on your waiver wire, feel free to add him. Isiah Pacheco is dealing with a knee/ankle issue and remember, two weeks ago Kareem Hunt got hurt after he was rolled up from behind. Hunt obviously responded well, scoring two touchdowns versus Washington last week, but the point being, there's potentially a lot of runway available to Smith.
Smith ran an impressive 4.39 40 and he's got serious pass-catching chops, but what also has me intrigued is that he's run to the outside on a whopping 72% of his carries thus far.
Smith's outside run rates could fit in better with how KC would like to deploy their running backs, considering Pacheco owns a 57.7% outside run rate. Kareem Hunt, with his depreciated speed, is running outside on just 33.9% of his carries.
Obviously, Smith only holds value if either Pacheco or Hunt miss time, but both are gutting out injuries right now. Considering age and injury history, it's not hard to imagine Smith having a role in the coming weeks.
Don't go crazy trying to get Brashard if you have to trade for him, but swapping end-of-roster backs like Bhayshul Tuten or Jaydon Blue are buzzy names that could get a deal done. I see a clearer line to playing time for Smith than I do for Tuten or Blue.
This is a risky move for sure, but no risk it, no biscuit.
Carson Wentz is out for the season which could result in more crowded boxes but I still think with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison posing the most dangerous threats, do defensive coordinators really want to let either guy go one one-on-one with corners on the outside?
I also think Kevin O'Connell will attempt to lean heavily on the run to protect whoever is back there attempting to play quarterback for the Purple.
MIN has generally been an outside run team in years past and Jones is averaging a sturdy 61.1% outside run rate this year.
It was ugly in the first game back for Jones last week (5 carries, 15 yards) but as he gets healthier, let's see if Jones gets his legs back.
Despite coming back from an injured reserve stint, Jones was re-inserted as the dominant starter playing 53% of the snaps versus Jordan Mason's 34%.
After last week's disaster outing, Jones' trade value couldn't be lower. All things considered, I'd rather have Jones ahead of guys like Kyle Monangai or Chuba Hubbard.
He's running to the outside at a 64% clip and despite his massive frame, he's the poster child for why outside run rates matter. He's always been a much better, much more explosive player when running to the outside and this year is no different.
He's averaging 4.89 ypc while running to the outside and 4.31 ypc between the tackles. Four of his six rushing touchdowns have come while running outside.
When I start looking at Kenneth Walker's schedule and realize I'm going to push him as a buy-low candidate... again. pic.twitter.com/Vthz2u2J7b
- James D Koh (@JamesDKoh) October 29, 2025
Look, I get it. I really do. I've been pushing this guy harder than Homelander pushing his son. But there is hope that he could turn around this cold stretch over the next month!
Walker (61.1% outside rush rate) is a terrific bouncer to the outside, averaging a strong 4.8 ypc.
He'll see Washington, Arizona, Tennessee and Minnesota in four of his next five games. The Commanders rank dead last in yards per carry allowed to running backs rushing to the outside (5.5 ypc). The 10 touchdowns they've allowed on outside runs rank as dead last as well.
The Cardinals have allowed the third most rush yards on outside runs while the Titans have been routinely gashed by running backs all year long. Six straight running backs have scored 16+ PPR points against Tennessee. The Vikings have given up the ninth-most rush yards to running backs this year.
At some point, the coaching staff has to realize that Walker is the vastly superior back to Zach Charbonnet, right? ... RIGHT???