Article 71AEY Everything to know for betting NFL Week 10: Sharp action, public betting splits and big bets

Everything to know for betting NFL Week 10: Sharp action, public betting splits and big bets

by
Ben Fawkes
from on (#71AEY)

Week 10 of the NFL season has arrived, and it's time to get those bets in.

We've compiled where the public is betting at BetMGM sportsbooks, along with some notable wagers, and asked around at several other books to find out where the sharp action has come in for this weekend's games.

[For all of our NFL betting content, be sure to check out our betting hub right here.]

Week 10 NFL best bets| Betting trends | Survivor picksPublic betting splits

Here is where the betting public has landed on Week 10 games at BetMGM sportsbooks.

Five most-bet games (by total number of wagers)

  1. Detroit Lions -8

  2. Philadelphia Eagles +2.5

  3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5

  4. Baltimore Ravens -4

  5. Buffalo Bills -9.5

Five most-bet games (by total dollars wagered)

  1. Detroit Lions -8

  2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5

  3. Philadelphia Eagles +2.5

  4. Baltimore Ravens -4

  5. Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5

Most-bet totals (by total number of wagers)

  1. New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 48

  2. Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans Under 38.5

  3. New York Giants at Chicago Bears Under 46.5

  4. Cleveland Browns at New York Jets Under 38

  5. Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts Under 48.5

Most-bet underdogs to win (by total number of wagers)

  1. Philadelphia Eagles +110

  2. Pittsburgh Steelers +125

  3. Minnesota Vikings +170

  4. New England Patriots +120

  5. Atlanta Falcons +235

From the bookmakers

"Bettors are looking for the Lions to bounce back after a surprising upset in Week 9. The Commanders keeping it close would be ideal for the sportsbook. Favorites usually attract the most action but as underdogs the Eagles and Steelers are popular this week. " - Christian Cipollini, BetMGM trading manager

Falcons-Colts

Thomas Gable, Borgata sportsbook director: "After the game last week when they turned the ball over six times, I did downgrade the Colts half a point. With the moves that they made, they're in a win-now mode. Somewhat questionable giving up two firsts for Sauce Gardner, but certainly upgrading the D was a priority.

We opened Indy laying -6.5, down to 6 right now. I think most bettors will be counting on a bounce back spot for Indy. No movement in total. Falcons, I'm still not really sure what to make of them overall. Seem to have a lot of great pieces and find ways to lose games."

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Joey Feazel, head NFL oddsmaker at Caesars: "Seeing two-way action here, a little more towards the over. Week in and week out people are betting on the Colts because of their offense and their the ability to cover the spread. Resonates with customers as we get closer to game day. Expect to see more Colts and over money as we approach kickoff."

Lions-Commanders

Gable: "We're at 8 now. When we opened this last week, it was Lions -3, went up to -7.5 after the Jayden Daniels injury. Got up to -9.5 and now back down to 8. We had more Lions action early on, but now closer to 50-50."

Browns-Jets

Cipollini: "Jets opened 1.5-point favorites, now 2.5-point dogs. That's what happens when you give up your two best defensive players. It is a rarity to have Browns as a favorite, especially a road favorite. Very low total. Action has been relatively light on this game overall, little more money on the Jets currently. It's one of the least-bet games on the board."

Ravens-Vikings

Gable: "The Vikings surprised a lot of bettors winning that game outright on Sunday at the Lions. That was a very nice victory financially for us. It's been early Ravens money here. We opened Baltimore -3.5, now up to 4. Total ticked up from 47.5 to 48. Nice rest advantage for Ravens, having played last Thursday."

Feazel: "Another one where we're seeing some action on the over. Ravens D not being as good, and Vikings giving up some points (7-1 to the over). More over money than a certain side. We need Ravens to win, but not cover."

Patriots-Bucs

Gable: "No line movement whatsoever from opening numbers of Bucs -2.5, total of 48.5. Tampa Bay off a much-needed bye week, dealing with so many injuries."

Cardinals-Seahawks

Cipollini: We opened at Seahawks -6, went to -7 after Seahawks looking good - not a huge difference between Kyler Murray and Jacoby Brissett [in terms of the spread]. Taking about 5x as many ML bets on Seahawks and double the action on Seattle to cover. Sharps took Seahawks at -6.5."

Rams-49ers

Feazel: "One-way action on the Rams. Rams look rock-solid, especially on defense. Concerns about Matthew Stafford's back going into the season, but he's playing very well. That's been attractive in the bettors' eyes, despite the 49ers having the Rams' number recently. San Francisco dealing with a lot of injuries, but still battling week in and week out. One of the higher-bet late games."

Cipollini: "Opened at -3, up to -4.5. Combo of injuries and looking more and more like Mac Jones is starting again. Taking about 2.5x as much action on Rams ML and about 50-50 on the spread at -4.5, more Rams money at earlier numbers."

Steelers-LA Chargers

Feazel: "So far pretty light action, a little more on the under in this one but leaning towards the Chargers. Steelers did have a big win last week. Pretty decent sharp money on game day last week against Colts, which got there. Two teams where you don't know what you're to get, so public is staying away. Likely will need the under in this one come game time."

Eagles-Packers

Gable: "It's weird that we're here in the middle of the week and the Monday Night Football game has the most handle written on it. Probably helped that Eagles are playing in it. We opened Packers -2.5, which is where it still sits. Early action very balanced. Eagles off the bye, Howie Roseman very busy off the trade deadline. Helped to shore up the secondary, which has been the weak link of the Philly defense this season. Packers off a head-scratching loss to Panthers. I think we'll see Eagles money. I don't think we'll go to Green Bay - 3, but could go to -2 or -1.5 on Monday depending on Philadelphia money that comes in."

Feazel: "So far, seeing one-way action on the Eagles in this one following Green Bay's loss. Eagles making moves to improve defense. Packers are a good team but play to their competition. We'll see some Green Bay money, we always do, but this will be one of the bigger bet games of the year. Will be interesting to see where the total ends up. Likely going to need the under. I think it probably goes down to -1.5, -2 rather than up to -3."

Cipollini: We are taking a lot more Eagles bets, about 3-1 or 4-1 on ticket count. Line has stayed at -2.5, money line about 5x as many Eagles bets to Packers bets. Usually what we'll end up seeing on Sunday if line is 2.5, get Eagles bets on ML and Packers bets at 2.5. I don't think it will go to 3."

Sharp action

It's always notable where respected bettors have landed on this week's games. While these prices may not currently be available at all sportsbooks, knowing where sharps have wagered can also be instructive for in-game wagering.

Yahoo Sports conversed with several bookmakers over the course of the week, and here is where some sharp action has been (and the numbers it came in at):

  • Bills -8.5

  • Seahawks -6

  • Panthers -4.5, -5

  • Lions -7.5, -8, -8.5

  • Colts -6

  • Texans-Jags under 39, 38.5

  • Bucs -2.5, Bucs-Pats under 48.5

  • Giants-Bears under 47.5

  • Ravens-Vikings over 47, 47.5

  • Browns -1.5, -2, Browns-Jets over 37.5

Big bets

We'll be keeping track of six-figure (and larger) Week 10 NFL bets from sportsbooks, as well as if they end up cashing.

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