NFL coaches appear to be evenly split on kicking or receiving to start overtime

Under the NFL's old overtime rules, it was almost automatic that if you won the coin toss, you chose to receive the overtime kickoff: In sudden death overtime, getting the ball first was a huge advantage.

But now that the NFL has changed its regular-season overtime rules to guarantee both teams a possession, coaches appear to be evenly split on whether it's better to kick or to receive.

There have been five overtime games in the NFL so far this season, the first year that regular-season overtime has guaranteed both teams a possession. Three times, the winner of the coin toss has chosen to kick. Twice, the winner of the toss has chosen to receive. Thanks to the referee botching the coin toss at the start of the Falcons-Colts overtime, we also know that the Colts would have chosen to receive if they had won the toss.

So of six coaches who have made a coin toss decision at the start of overtime this season, three have chosen to kick and three have chosen to receive.

The only other time the NFL had an overtime in which both teams were guaranteed a possession was in Super Bowl LVIII, after the NFL changed the postseason overtime rules. In that game, the coaches were also split: 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan won the toss and chose to receive, but Chiefs coach Andy Reid said after the game that if his team had won the toss, he would have chosen to kick.

After choosing to receive prior to his team's overtime win last week, Jaguars coach Liam Coen said he thinks it's better to get the ball first to run time off the clock. Regular-season overtime is limited to 10 minutes, and a team that gets the ball first and scores at the end of a long possession can force its opponent to go into hurry-up mode on the subsequent possession. It's even possible for the team that receives the overtime kickoff to run the full 10 minutes off the clock and deprive the other team of an overtime possession altogether.

The major advantage to kicking off at the start of overtime is that the team with the second possession knows what it has to do: If your defense forces a stop, you know you only need to settle for a field goal on offense to win the game. If your defense gives up a field goal, you know you need a touchdown to win or a field goal of your own to extend overtime. If your defense gives up a touchdown and extra point, you know you can win the game with a touchdown and two-point conversion. Knowing exactly what you need helps in your play-calling and fourth down decision-making.

The overtime rules are new, and five overtime games isn't a large enough sample to draw any definitive conclusions about which strategy is superior. NFL coaches certainly haven't drawn any definitive conclusions. They're split 50-50.