Early Week 11 NFL bets to make right now: Back the Bears against the Vikings
We now head into Week 11 of the NFL season. The trade deadline has passed, multiple coaches have been fired and a lot of quantitative information is known and well priced across the league and in the betting markets.
When applicable, I try to give actionable tips that might be seen this week in the NFL. This week, the takeaway is that a lot of divisional repeat matchups will start occurring. We have already seen six instances of divisional repeat matchups this season.
Here they are in a list with the subsequent results:
1. Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins: 1-1 split
2. Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 1-1 split
3. Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans: Colts won both
4. New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles: 1-1 split
5. Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks: Seahawks won both
6. Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers: 1-1 split
It's very hard to win divisional games, let alone win both against the same team in a given season. The only two teams to do it are the Colts and Seahawks - two teams that have emerged as surprising Super Bowl contenders - and they did it by beating the worst teams in their respective divisions, the Titans and Cardinals.
This week, the two matchups I zeroed in on feature repeat divisional matchups in which the losing team in the first game is the buy spot this week. This method is not forced upon the slate, but rather an added boost to what I feel is already a good number.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 42.5)Both of these teams feature run-heavy offenses and defenses that get beat by the run.
It's no surprise that the look-ahead total dropped from 44.5 to a re-open price at 42.5. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier are likely to have very big games on the fast Atlanta turf against a Carolina run defense that has allowed 157 rushing yards per game 4.9 yards per carry over their last three games.
Atlanta is also getting healthier in the passing game. Darnell Mooney, Drake London and Michael Penix Jr. all missed time earlier this season and finally are all back on the field and starting to jell.
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The Falcons pass defense has been quite impressive this season. Atlanta should be able to stack the box defensively to stop RBs Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard, while still maintaining a strong secondary against Bryce Young. NFL market ratings have this game at Falcons -3.8, so the price is fair but also we are not going to see a 3 here, so the closing line value feels one directional.
Atlanta just happened to lose 30-0 in the previous matchup, one of the biggest surprise results this season. Look for the Falcons to take the Panthers very seriously, and try and beat them handily on their home field. If you are still alive in a survivor pool, I also think this is a decent spot to play the Falcons.
Bet: Falcons -3.5
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 48.5)Two of my personal bets placed for this week already are on this game and it is where I have my highest exposure thus far - one bet on the over and another (still actionable) bet on the side.
The Vikings lost Jonathan Greenard against the Ravens in Week 10 and it created a notable impact on that game - Baltimore's offense started to go on cruise control and take a commanding lead after previously being stalled regularly and forced to kick field goals. If Greenard is forced to miss time, the pressure on Caleb Williams will decrease and Williams has shown with time he can both be a threat to run and deliver big plays in the pass game.
On the other end, Bears defensive back CJ Gardner-Johnson got hurt as well, but the Vikings' passing game has been rather ineffective. I think the opportunity to take advantage of that injury is less of a threat. The injury risk between both teams that has not been fully priced in feels asymmetric and favors the Bears.
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Early-week betting money is already hitting Chicago and on the key number of +3. The three in NFL betting represents the most important number to get in front of because roughly 10% of NFL games land with the favorite winning by 3. Over a large sample, those edges are critical to have on your side. Moving on, or off of, the 3 is worth 22 cents in the betting market. I want to get in on the Bears early in the week with the +3 available because I think once injury reports are finalized, we might see Bears +2.5, which would indicate one of the biggest moves of the week in value.
Chicago had a sizable lead entering the fourth quarter in Week 1 on Monday Night Football. JJ McCarthy then led three straight touchdown drives, which fueled a massive wave of support for McCarthy that has waned in the coming weeks. Look for Williams to deliver that borderline superstar performance in this game on the road, and a get-back spot for the 6-3 Chicago Bears.
The total has also been a sharp over spot, but it has moved too much to still be playable. There were 45.5s in the market Sunday night, I personally played over 46.5, but now sitting at 48.5 it is a no play for me. If this comes back down to 47.5, then consider playing the over as well.
Bet: Bears +3 (-115)