How the Cognitive Bias of Overconfidence Can Lead to Dangerous and Devastating Consequences
Derek Mullerof Veritasium spoke with UC Berkeley HaasprofessorDan A. Mooreto explain how the cognitive bias of overconfidence leads people to think they know more than they actually do, and how this belief can lead to dangerous and devastating consequences.
Overconfidence gets us into all sorts of trouble. It leads us to take risks, make commitments, enter contests, try things that will ultimately fail, sometimes in costly, embarrassing, and dangerous ways.
Muller cites such examples as rogue trader Nick Leeson, whose futures trading subterfuge led to the 1995 collapse of Barings Bank, which was England's oldest existing merchant bank at the time. Also cited was the tragedy of the 1986 Space Shuttle Challenger disaster, which was caused by O-rings, cold weather, and the insistence to move forward. The list goes on. Yet not every episode of overconfidence is as extreme as it can be seen in everyday events.
Overconfidence has been implicated in almost every big disaster, from the sinking of the Titanic to the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, to the loss of the Space Shuttle Challenger. But overconfidence isn't reserved for just a few reckless individuals. We can all fall victim to it.
This cognitive bias was showcased with questions from the Veritasium game Elements of Truth", which was posed to people on the street and online. Several people said they were 100% confident their answer was correct despite not yet knowing the result.
We asked the Veritasium community a bunch of science questions and then asked how confident they were in their answer. Our results showed that those who were the most confident describing themselves as 91 to 100% sure were only correct 51% of the time.
Muller is raising money to bring this thoughtful game to the public.
Each question asks you to think like a scientist: weigh the evidence, assess your confidence in your reasoning, and test what you know.We're launching this on Kickstarter to give the entire Veritasium community an opportunity to shape the final product before we start production and ship by summer 2026.
Overconfidence also has quite a bit in common with the Dunning-Kruger Effect, which leads people to believe they are better than others.
How Cognitive Bias Leads People to Believe That They Are Far Superior to Others Than They Actually Are
The Curious Psychological Phenomenon Explaining Why Those With Lesser Ability Overrate Their Skills
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