Week 14 NFL against-the-spread picks, predictions for every game: Bears look to stay in 1st place vs. Packers

Some of the groundwork for the Chicago Bears' success this season was set at Lambeau Field in last season's finale.

The Bears were on a 10-game losing streak, with an interim coach. They hadn't beat the Packers since 2018. But Williams drove his team downfield in the final minute for a game-winning field goal as time expired.

"It's the first of a lot, and really excited about this offseason," Williams said after the game.

The positive vibes carried over. In new coach Ben Johnson's first season, the Bears are 9-3. If the season ended after Week 14, the Bears would be the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

But the season has five games left, and the Bears still have things to prove. They did get a quality win last week against the Philadelphia Eagles, but a more important test awaits this week. They get their first of two games against the 8-3-1 Packers. The winner will be in first place of the NFC North.

The spread reflects that there isn't a lot of faith in the Bears, despite them being 8-4 against the spread this season. They're a 6.5-point underdog, which is a lot for the team with the best record in the NFC. That's because Chicago has a modest point differential for a 9-3 team (+6), few quality wins and their advanced metrics don't match their record either (19th in DVOA).

Still, it's hard to ignore how dominant the Bears were in their win over the Eagles. They ran it very well. The defense is getting healthier. The Packers have been up and down this season, though coming off their own impressive Week 13 road win at the Lions, this should feel like a playoff game. Let's take the Bears as a feisty 6.5-point underdog. It's fun to see the NFL's best rivalry alive and well.

Caleb Williams of the Chicago Bears scrambles with the ball during last season's win over the Green Bay Packers. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)Patrick McDermott via Getty Images

Here are the rest of the picks for Week 14 in the NFL, with odds from BetMGM:

Cowboys (+3) over Lions

If the Lions were reasonably healthy, maybe they would be the pick. They're not. Receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is likely out (though he is listed as questionable, but it's hard to believe he'd be anywhere close to 100% if he plays), which hurts Detroit's passing game. Tight end Sam LaPorta is out too. Cornerback Terrion Arnold went to injured reserve, which is bad news against a Cowboys team that has two No. 1 receivers. The offensive line is banged up too. Dallas is playing better lately and should feel like it has a shot to get in the NFC playoff picture, so the Cowboys will be giving it their best effort. That should be enough for at least the cover and maybe the win.

Jets (+3) over Dolphins

It's a surprise that both of these teams have been on hot streaks. Or at least warm streaks. The Jets have won three of five and the Dolphins have won three in a row and four of five. Most of the wins are against bad teams but it's a big difference from when the Jets were 0-7 and the Dolphins were 1-6. The weather for the game will be about 40 degrees, which isn't bad, but Miami hasn't played well when it gets cold. That's enough to take the points.

Steelers (+6) over Ravens

Confession time: Not being able to let go of preseason takes can be stubborn and costly. That's what I had been doing with the Ravens. I ignored how Lamar Jackson and the Ravens had played when they rallied from 1-5 to 5-5. They weren't playing well. They were just playing bad teams. But that was my Super Bowl pick, and the idea of the Ravens emerging again was better than the reality. Losing 32-14 at home to the Bengals was a wake-up call. The Ravens aren't good. They're probably good enough to win a bad division, but they shouldn't be laying six points, even to a similarly disappointing Steelers team.

Seahawks (-7) over Falcons

From play to play, the Falcons haven't been that bad. They're just very good at finding ways to lose, like they did last week at the Jets. The Seahawks don't mind playing on the road; they're 12-2 in away games under Mike Macdonald. I'll trust the Seahawks.

Bengals (+5.5) over Bills

I don't want to ignore that the Bengals still have a really bad defense. Maybe Buffalo just blows them out because of that. But on Thanksgiving it looked like a team that truly believed it can save its season. That's what happens when you welcome Joe Burrow back. They've had a little extra rest, and they might be able to keep this close.

Browns (-4) over Titans

Of the Titans' 11 losses, only one came by four or fewer points. It's a truly bad team. The Browns aren't much better, but the matchup of the Browns defensive line with Myles Garrett vs. the Titans offensive line should come with a warning before the game for potentially disturbing content.

Commanders (+2) over Vikings

The Commanders are far from a great team, but they're probably the better team in this sad matchup between a team that was in the NFC championship game last season and the other that went 14-3. J.J. McCarthy is on track to return, but it's hard to believe that'll make a difference.

Saints (+8.5) over Buccaneers

The first time these teams played, the Bucs won 23-3. But it wasn't that dominant. The Saints out-gained the Buccaneers 275-212. Tampa Bay scored only one offensive touchdown. That was the game in which Spencer Rattler got benched for Tyler Shough, and Shough hasn't been that bad since New Orleans turned to him as the starter. The Buccaneers also usually like playing close games.

Colts (-1.5) over Jaguars

The Colts have lost three of four, but it's not like they're falling apart. The last two losses were at Kansas City in overtime and then to a hot Houston team in a game that had multiple officiating controversies. Indianapolis has been the better team than Jacksonville this season, despite both having 8-4 records. Let's give the Colts one more shot to reestablish themselves as the eventual AFC South champ.

Broncos (-7.5) over Raiders

Ask yourself this: Do you really want to spend a nice Sunday afternoon backing this Raiders team?

Cardinals (+8) over Rams

My colleague Charles McDonald laid out the case well for the Cardinals being the "good" bad team this season. McDonald pointed out if you remove losses to San Francisco and Seattle, the Cardinals have a point differential of +3 in their other 10 games despite being 3-7. Short story: They lose a lot of close games and are probably better than their 3-9 record. The Rams are very good, probably angry after getting beat by Carolina last week, but the Cardinals usually keep things close.

Texans (+3.5) over Chiefs

Houston looks like one of those teams that figured things out at midseason and changed who it was. The defense is very good and the Chiefs have some offensive line issues. The Chiefs aren't a bad team. They just aren't winning close games. But the hot team in this Sunday night game is the Texans, and this matchup is not great for Kansas City.

Chargers (+3) over Eagles

This is a hard game to pick because we don't know if Justin Herbert will play through a broken left hand that required surgery on Monday. Herbert is tough and I'll assume he plays. If he does play and isn't limited too much by the injury, the Chargers are a pretty easy pick. The Eagles look miserable every time they take the field, like a team that just wants the season to be done. That's weird for an 8-4 team but we all can see it.

Last week: 6-9-1

Season to date: 100-90-6