Fantasy Football: 6 player projections that don't make sense for Week 14

Hello Yahoo! I'm Derek Carty of EV Analytics and the creator ofTHE BLITZ projection system, which if you have Yahoo+, you'll notice is available this year to help you manage your teams. Each Friday morning, I'll be digging into three players projected to play above their usual level, and three players projected to play below their usual level. (I'll also be doing an AMA in the Yahoo Fantasy Discord every Thursday at 3 p.m. ET, so be sure to stop by, say hi, and get your questions answered.)

Last week's list was more hits than misses, with Brock Purdy and Justin Jefferson struggling and De'Von Achane having another big game. Let's see who we should expect to have up or down weeks this time around. On to Week 14...

Bucky Irving, RB, Bucs

THE BLITZ Week 14 Projection: 19.2 carries, 2.4 receptions, 103 yards, 0.85 TD

Week 14 vs. ROS: RB8 vs. RB13

Last week, I listed Irving as an avoid", citing the likelihood that his workload would be limited in his first game back from injury. This proved true in a strict sense, with Irving playing just 52% of the team's snaps. He was used strategically, though, such that he was given nearly 70% of the team's carries. With a likely bump up in usage this week, Irving seems poised to take advantage of a great matchup versus the Saints. New Orleans plays at an extremely fast pace, which should mean more volume for Tampa Bay, and the 8.5-point spread should mean plenty of runs for the Bucs. With his routes and targets likely ticking up as a well, Irving immediately steps firmly into the RB1 conversation.

Emeka Egbuka, WR, Bucs

THE BLITZ Week 14 Projection: 8.4 targets, 4.7 receptions, 71 yards, 0.48 TD

Week 14 vs. ROS: WR15 vs. WR29

Egbuka hasn't performed up to his projection in nearly a month, and he's done so just one time since Week 5... yet he's had a target share north of 30% in four of the past five weeks. We're firmly in buy-low territory now. At the very least, this may be the highest projection we see for him over the rest of the year with Chris Godwin Jr. healthy and nearly ramped up, and with Mike Evans having his practice window opened and possibly playing next week. Egbuka gets a solid matchup in a pace-up spot against the Saints and is projected for a higher target share than THE BLITZ can reasonably give him in any of the remaining games on the schedule.

Deebo Samuel (and Treylon Burks and Noah Brown), WR, Commanders

THE BLITZ Week 14 Projection: 8.0 targets, 5.6 receptions, 67 yards, 0.38 TD

Week 14 vs. ROS: WR17 vs. WR

The spot this week is strong for several Washington pass-catchers (and gets even better if Jayden Daniels happens to return). The Commanders go into the dome in Minnesota to face the league's most zone-heavy defense. This is especially notable because several Commanders have man/zone splits that favor zone shells. Deebo is the most prominent of them, but Terry McLaurin also tilts that way, while Burks and Brown (likely to return this week) are on the extreme end of the spectrum, heavily preferring to face zone. With so many pass-catchers showing favorable splits here, we could see a strong day all-around for the Commanders offense.

Chris Olave, WR, Saints

THE BLITZ Week 14 Projection: 9.5 targets, 5.4 receptions, 63 yards, 0.38 TD

Week 14 vs. ROS: WR18 vs. WR12

THE BLITZ looooves Olave and has since it identified him as one of the year's best sleepers on draft day, but this week's matchup does set up as a downgrade for him. For starters, the Saints go on the road and away from their dome. They face a Bucs offense that projects to play at an extremely slow pace, lowering overall play volume for New Orleans. And Tampa Bay plays man defense at a below-average rate, which is less than ideal given that Olave has one of the most pronounced man/zone splits in the NFL, favoring man.

Kimani Vidal, RB, Chargers

THE BLITZ Week 14 Projection: 6.3 carries, 0.6 receptions, 32 yards, 0.21 TD

Week 14 vs. YTD: RB44 vs. RB26 (per game)

If you were the lucky one to scoop Vidal up off waivers several weeks ago, you've been very happy with the performance you've gotten out of him. All good things must come to an end, though, and that end is here for Vidal's fantasy relevance with the return of Omarion Hampton this week. Vidal has certainly played well enough to carve out a role for himself (offensive coordinator Greg Roman said I'm sure you'll see some kind of 1-2 punch"), but he very much figures to be the 2" in that punch, making his fantasy value minimal. He's mostly just a handcuff now in case Hampton gets hurt again.

Tyjae Spears, RB, Titans

THE BLITZ Week 14 Projection: 5.0 carries, 2.5 receptions, 40 yards, 0.19 TD

Week 14 vs. ROS: 7.6 PPR points vs. 8.5 PPR points per game

It had seemed like Spears was gaining ground on Tony Pollard in the Tennessee backfield for a little while there, but he's received less than 30% of the team's carries in each of the past three weeks and barely more than 15% in each of the past two. And while Spears' routes and targets have stayed up, he faces a Cleveland defense that plays man coverage shells at one of the highest rates in the league. This is notable because Spears has one of the most drastic man/zone splits of any running back, strongly favoring production against zone. I wouldn't expect much out of him this week.