Fantasy Football: 1 Player to watch from each team for every Week 14 game

I came into Week 14 as a heavy playoff favorite in one of my fantasy football leagues. George Pickens is my WR2, and the Lions' defense has had their lapses in coverage. Well, now I'm scrambling. These things happen, though. We analyze each game, find the best matchups and adjust our rosters accordingly. However, with a run at the championship on the line, every game has a fantasy angle.

So, as I try to find which players will keep my team alive, here are a couple from each game that I'll be watching.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

On the one hand, I want to roster pieces of any passing game facing the Buccaneers. The last four QBs have either eclipsed 300 yards or thrown for multiple TDs. Actually, half of them did both. But Tampa has pressured three of the four on over 40% of their dropbacks. And when things break down for Tyler Shough, watch out. Shough took four sacks alone on just a 24.4% pressure rate last week. I want to trust Chris Olave or Juwan Johnson, but Shough's struggles against pressure may limit the entire offense.

If I had to guess, this is the week the Buccaneers' aerial attack gets back on track. Chris Godwin looked like he was getting back to his old self, but was still running on just 66% of the routes. At the same time, Emeka Egbuka's catchable target rate was above 60% for the first time in a month. A Mike Evans return would be the cherry on top, but I'm sure Baker Mayfield will be happy with facing less pressure, given the Saints' bottom-10 pass rush.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

Regardless of what happens to the Dolphins on offense, we can always count on De'Von Achane. Sure, Ollie Gordon has vultured a few scores. But only Achane and Christian McCaffrey have target shares above 20%. Achane's floor has been 12.8 PPR points. And against the Jets' run defense, which has allowed over 20 PPR points in four of their last five games, Achane's ceiling should be on our minds.

The NFL scriptwriters were in their bag when they cooked up the plotline for Adonai Mitchell. His dropped TD against the Rams in Week 4 resulted in the Colts' first loss and a one-way ticket to the bench for Mitchell. But after a seemingly innocuous trade to the Jets, the former second-rounder was part of the reason New York got their third win. And with Mitchell averaging over seven targets per game with Tyrod Taylor, Mitchell's value as a WR3 is worth considering even in the fantasy playoffs.

Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns

I understand the need to establish the run. Especially if you're on a team with a young QB trying to acclimate to the NFL. But Tony Pollard isn't exactly setting up Cam Ward for success. He's yet to put up a 100-yard game. And, no, I'm not talking about rushing yards. I'm talking all-purpose. But since Tyjae Spears has come back, he's been the more efficient rusher and receiver of the two. Plus, as the Browns have been stout against opposing RBs, I'd rather lean on Spears to keep the Titans' offense on schedule.

So, the Titans are one of eight teams with a bottom-12 mark in both pressure rate and passing yards per game allowed over their last six games. Said another way, they can't get to the passer, and they let receivers roam free in the secondary. But the passer we'd have to rely on is Shedeur Sanders, and the receiver of interest would be Jerry Jeudy. You know, the two were arguing with each other on the sidelines just five days ago. Short-area options like Harold Fannin Jr are viable. But even in a positive matchup, I'd limit my exposure to the Browns' passing game.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

Honestly, the only part of the Steelers offense I'm interested in watching is 311-lbs Darnell Washington. It baffles me that they don't just throw it to him on first down to set up more manageable plays later. But I guess if we're looking for more fantasy-relevant options, Jaylen Warren's usage should be on our collective radars. It took a few weeks, but after a Week 11 ankle injury, Warren was back to leading the backfield in carries and targets. Kenneth Gainwell did take some short-yardage snaps, but at least for now, it should be Warren's backfield.

The timing of the Ravens announcing Mark Andrews' contract extension is curious, to say the least. Week 13 was Isaiah Likely's first outing where he held command over the TE target share (20%). But, of course, everyone remembers the result as Likely (literally) fumbled the bag at the goal-line. It's not to say a financial decision will trigger an on-field shift. But with Lamar Jackson barely practicing this week, an alternate game plan may leave Likely out of the passing-game rotation.

Washington Commanders @ Minnesota Vikings

Admittedly, I'm not a doctor. However, prior to Sunday night, I assumed a team devoid of playoff hopes would take a conservative approach to bringing back their WR1 from an injury he re-aggravated earlier in the season. Terry McLaurin politely told me to stick to my day job. His 30% target share (and OT TD) was what put Washington a play away from the upset. And despite the Vikings' woes on offense, the Commanders will still need some semblance of a passing game, with McLaurin leading it, to come out the other side with a win.

In Week 13, Washington was able to generate pressure on 30.4% of Bo Nix's dropbacks. His response was to target Evan Engram a season-high nine times. T.J. Hockenson wouldn't mind that level of attention. Minnesota's TE1 hasn't seen nine targets in a single game since October. Plus, with a clear need to take the pressure off J.J. McCarthy, a short-area option like Hockenson should keep the Vikings' QB upright and confident.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills

The obvious key to a Bengals' win will be Joe Burrow staying on his feet. But the underlying factor will be Chase Brown's performance. Despite a drop in snaps with Samaje Perine's return, Brown has posted rushing success rates of 73.7% and 53.3% in back-to-back weeks. His 5.7 and 5.2 yards per carry on early downs have led to shorter conversion distances for Burrow. And with the last three teams averaging 4.7 a tote against the Bills, if Brown has a good day, so will Cincinnati.

Buffalo has been without Dalton Kincaid for three games - and without a solution to replace him. Dawson Knox has seen more targets each week, but the after-the-catch ability Kincaid provides isn't there with Knox. But against Cincinnati, it shouldn't matter. Eleven different TEs have scored double-digit PPR points against the Bengals. They've given up a league-high 13 to the position. So, even if we can't expect a high target rate for Knox, the chance of him falling into the end zone on Sunday is better than most.

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Again, I'm not a doctor. But Daniel Jones playing with a fractured fibula just does not compute for me. However, he was still slinging it to his guys last Sunday. Well, everyone except for Tyler Warren. The rookie TE saw his second-lowest target rate of the year in Week 13 (13%). Unsurprisingly, the Chiefs have allowed the seventh-fewest PPR PPG to Warren's position. Jacksonville has given up the second-most. So, if there was ever a time for a bounce-back game for Warren (and his fantasy managers), it's Sunday.

You can tell what route concepts Trevor Lawrence prefers by the receivers he's connected with the most often. Jakobi Meyers walked into a 20% target rate after his trade from the Raiders. Brenton Strange has done the same thing. He's only two weeks removed from coming back from IR and has earned an 18% and 17% target share. He's been a TE1 both weeks. And in what should be an up-tempo game against the Colts, Strange should be a featured part of the offense.

Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons

No, I'm not worried about Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Vikings blitzed Sam Darnold on 60% of his dropbacks. He averaged a season-low 3.6 air yards per attempt. That won't happen against the Falcons. Atlanta is sitting at the league average in pressure rate over the last four games, and they run the highest rate of Cover 1 (single high safety) in the league. Smith-Njigba ranks first in yards per route run against man coverage, and he and Darnold should go right back to their old ways on Sunday.

Also, no, I'm not taking the bait on Kyle Pitts Sr.. Yes, I realize his eight targets against the Jets were the second-most he's earned all year. I also noticed that he showcased his athleticism by tallying 8.6 yards after the catch per reception (season-high). But he can't fool me. Will I have him in my starting lineup? No. Will I be watching to see how he performs? Of course.

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders

The Broncos don't have a WR1. Well, they don't have a consistent one. Courtland Sutton had the job earlier in the season (22% target share). But then Troy Franklin ascended to the position with more attempts and air yards. But Pat Bryant led the crew last Sunday. The rotation makes it hard to project the best option to roster. So, against a weaker pass rush, we should all be watching to see who has Nix's favor.

Nobody should be looking to Ashton Jeanty for rushing production. The Broncos have allowed just one 100-yard rusher all season. But offenses and fantasy managers have settled for receiving yardage. Luckily, Jeanty has secured five or more targets in five straight games, which should give him a floor against one of the best defenses in the league.

Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals

Lost in all of the chaos of the Panthers' upsetting the Rams was Matthew Stafford's performance throughout it all. I mean, everyone saw the turnovers. I'm talking about the good parts of the passing attack. Last Sunday was Stafford's eighth outing with a passing success rate at or above 50%. And it was his sixth consecutive game with two or more touchdown passes. So, unless you're projecting another multi-interception result for Stafford, he should be a top-12 option for Week 14.

Trey McBride has 88 receptions through 13 games. That's two more than the next closest receivers. Maybe that stat on its own didn't catch your attention, so I'll name the guys behind McBride in catches: Ja'Marr Chase (86) and Puka Nacua (86). On 118 targets, Arizona's TE is the only player at the position in the triple digits. And with one fewer option for Jacoby Brissett, McBride's dominance over the opportunity should continue.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

HC Ben Johnson held a clinic on how to design a run game last Friday. Both D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai crossed the century mark against the Eagles. Neither fell below a 50% success rate on the ground. Week 14 sets up similarly. The Packers' pass rush has been top 10 in pressure rate, and their secondary has given up the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game over the last month of action. Accordingly, Swift should project as a viable option with Monangai dealing with an injury.

Christian Watson has taken over 30% of Jordan Love's targets in two straight weeks. So, to go with the deep attempts (30% or greater air yard share in every game since Week 8), Watson has the volume to give him a viable floor to go with his ceiling. Chicago's biggest problem on defense is stopping explosive plays. Facing Watson won't help them.

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs

Nico Collins was back to making magic with CJ Stroud in Week 13. Last Sunday was the fourth time Collins took on at least 30% of the team's targets. On the one hand, we'll take the opportunities. But his 18.6-yard aDOT is part of why just 56% of the attempts thrown his way were on-target. Collins' role as a prototypical X-receiver injects some volatility into his profile. However, in a must-win game environment, we should expect to see Stroud take those shots to his WR1.

Houston's defense has been a problem for every offensive position. Their corners stymied opposing WRs for multiple weeks. Patrick Mahomes will need a reliable pass-catcher to move the chains. Travis Kelce will need to step up here. Mahomes has looked toward his veteran TE the second-most in obvious pass situations. So if Rashee Rice isn't open, Mahomes and fantasy managers should look to Kelce.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Chargers

Jalen Hurts has played well enough to be a QB1 in fantasy. But the efficiency that we saw a few times earlier in the year is gone. His game against the Bears featured his fourth-lowest rate of going under center. His use of play-action was back to what it was to start the season (18.4%). Philadelphia has found success through the air, but the offensive line injuries have forced them to adjust their play-calling. With more time to prepare, I'm interested to see if OC Kevin Patulo and Hurts have found some efficient concepts he can reliably execute.

Let's say Omarion Hampton is active. I want to see how much OC Greg Roman continues to involve Kimani Vidal. When Hampton secured the starting job, he handled 78.4% of the carries along with five targets per game. However, the rushing game will be the crux of the offense regardless of who starts under center. Chargers' fans may want a rotation, but fantasy managers will be expecting Hampton to be the RB1 they drafted back in August.