Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit: Players in great spots in Week 15, plus deep sleepers to consider
Using matchup data, I've got 12 sleepers who could help your fantasy football teams get these much-needed wins and help propel you through - or towards - the fantasy playoffs. Good luck and let's go ...
QUARTERBACKSMarcus Mariota vs. NYGThe Giants allow the second-most fantasy points per game (fppg) to the position, and of particular note, they've allowed the third-most rush yards to opposing quarterbacks. That bodes well for Mariota, who can get out of the pocket when need be.
Five of the last eight quarterbacks have scored 20+ points against New York, with all eight having scored at least 15 fantasy points.
In the same game, Dart has a great matchup in front of him as well. The Commanders have allowed the fourth-most fppg to QB with five of the last seven scoring 20+ points.
Washington is dead last in yards per pass attempt allowed.
The Niners are dead-last in quarterback pressure rate, meaning more clean pockets for Ward. All passers look better when they're not under pressure but for Ward, it's a stark contrast. Since Week 8, he has a 58.3 passer rating (0 TD, 1 INT) while under pressure but is 30 points higher with an 88.8 rating (5 TD, 1 INT) when working from a clean pocket.
SF is bottom-10 in pass yards allowed and tied for the second-fewest interceptions on the season.
We usually talk sleepers here but I'd be remiss if I didn't mention this matchup. On one hand, Tua is facing a Steelers defense that has allowed the fourth-most pass yards and the seventh-most fantasy points but that being said, Tua in cold weather has struggled.
It's supposed to feel like 10 degrees Monday night in Pittsburgh, and per Steelers Depot, in games below 40 degrees, Tagovailoa completes just 58.8% of his passes while averaging 252.2 yards, 1.3 TD, 1.3 INT per game. That works out to about 13 fantasy points per game.
Some of his biggest games involved the now-injured Tyreek Hill, making a Tua start even more dicey.
It's not just that the Giants give up the second-most fppg to RB, it's how they do it that has me intrigued in C-Rod this week.
The Giants rank second-to-last in rush yards allowed and are especially weak up the middle. The 5.61 ypc average given up to running backs is dead last in the league.
This is a terrific paper matchup for Rodriguez, who has one of the highest inside run rates in the NFL.
The Bills have devolved into one of the worst rush defenses in the league. The 5.0 ypc allowed is third-worst and they are the worst in the NFL when it comes to yards after contact per carry allowed to running backs.
Game script played a role but Rhamondre played 60% of the snaps last week versus TreVeyon Henderson's 48%.
Henderson is a strong start, too, but don't be surprised to see Rhamondre play close to 50% of the snaps.
The Panthers give up the eighth-most fppg to RB, are bottom-10 in explosive run rate allowed and bottom-five in terms of run stuff rate.
Neal's 75% snap share over his last three contests is exceptionally high, giving him a rock-solid floor. The matchup gives him upside to potentially be a top-12 play this week.
The Niners have allowed the most fppg to receivers who line up inside, while Dike plays about 65% of his snaps in the slot.
Dike has obviously been extremely up and down, but not for nothing, he's scored a touchdown in two of his last three games and he's been over 13 PPR points in four of his last seven games.
Robinson with Dart is essentially a must-start receiver in 12-team or deeper formats. Since Week 6, Robinson is the WR15 in total scoring in PPR formats, ahead of Tetairoa McMillan, Nico Collins, Ladd McConkey and Jaylen Waddle.
It's a good matchup too, as the Commanders have given up the second-most fppg to slot men and are league-worst in both yards per game and yards per pass attempt allowed to inside receivers.
I get that the undrafted rookie Brady Cook is starting but that won't deter me from pushing Mitchell as a sleeper this week. From everything I saw last week to what I've seen in a couple games out of Missouri, Cook has plenty of arm strength and can deliver in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field. His long ball is inconsistent and he'll for sure throw interceptions but, again, he has the power to get the ball out to his receivers.
Cook also has solid wheels and can keep plays alive, another potential path to unlocking big plays for someone like Mitchell.
The Jags have given up the fourth-most fppg to outside wideouts, with primary outside receivers scoring 16+ PPR points in three of their last five matchups.
The Titans have been destroyed by primary outside receivers all year long. Primary outside receivers have scored 15+ PPR points in six straight games with four of those six scoring 20+ fantasy points.
Tennessee has allowed the second-highest completion rate to outside receivers and the 9.84 yards per pass attempt allowed ranks as the second-worst as well. In short, it allows easy pass completions while also giving up big chunk plays as well.
Pearsall has done absolutely nothing since returning from injury but this week, I'm going out on a limb. Bold prediction: I say Pearsall scores 16 or more in full-PPR formats.
Kalif Raymond (ankle) returned to practice in a limited capacity, which makes this a deep sleeper call. But let's see if TeSlaa did enough to earn more snaps moving forward.
The Rams have allowed the ninth-most fppg to outside receivers and while I think Jameson Williams is in a good spot too, there should be plenty of meat on the bone for this exciting rookie as well.
The 55.5 point total projected for this game is the highest we've seen all year long, meaning touchdown exposure is extremely high for every player involved.
TeSlaa somehow has four touchdowns on EIGHT total receptions this year, so obviously Dan Campbell and company are putting him in spots to make splash plays.
I'm honestly impressed by how bad the Bengals are at defending tight ends. They've allowed BY FAR the most fppg to this position group.
Over their last nine games, TWELVE different tight ends have scored double digits against Cincy, meaning multiple TEs from the same team have gashed the Bengals in multiple weeks.
This double-digit streak includes Likely himself, who scored 12.5 PPR points just a few weeks ago, a number that could have been a 20-spot if he didn't fumble a touchdown through the end zone.
The 52.5 point total for this game is a big number and the second-highest of the week.
Jaxson Dart loves himself some Theo Johnson. Across the eight weeks Dart has started, Johnson is averaging a very healthy 6.13 targets per contest which, if played out across an entire season, would easily be a top-10 figure among all tight ends.
And it's a great matchup as the Commanders have allowed the fifth-most fppg to opposing TE's.
The 8.97 yards per target allowed to TE ranks as second-worst in the league.