NFL Playoff Projections: Bears vs. Packers highlights some huge Week 16 divisional showdowns

There are three weeks to go in the season, but for the most part we can already figure out the 14 teams that will be in the playoffs.

There are only nine teams alive for seven spots in the AFC, and for the moment that includes the loser of the AFC North race between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. The Steelers and Ravens have a combined 0.1% chance to get a wild-card spot, according to DVOA. The other team on the outside looking in with a shot at a wild-card spot is the Indianapolis Colts, who face a tough challenge with Philip Rivers at quarterback.

In the NFC, there are 10 teams alive but the Dallas Cowboys are down to about a 1% chance. The loser of the Carolina Panthers/Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFC South race has a 0% shot at a wild-card spot, DVOA says. The Detroit Lions, currently the No. 8 seed, still have a chance to get a wild-card spot, so there's some intrigue at the bottom of the NFC picture. There just aren't many spots still realistically open, even if the Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos are the only teams to clinch.

Just because we can make a good guess on which teams are in the field doesn't mean there isn't plenty at stake over the final three weeks. Week 16 has a few games that are critical to division races.

One of them is one of the NFL's oldest and best rivalries. The NFL picked out a winner for Saturday night, as the Green Bay Packers face the Chicago Bears. The 9-4-1 Packers fell a half-game behind the 10-4 Bears when they lost to the Broncos, and while Green Bay wouldn't be dead in the NFC North race with a loss on Saturday, they'd be 1.5 games behind with two to go. Of course, getting that win becomes tougher without defensive star Micah Parsons, who is out for the rest of the season with a torn ACL.

It should feel like a playoff game on Saturday night. It feels like a division title showdown, and it's not the only one this week.

(Yahoo Sports/Taylor Wilhelm)

Here are the other Week 16 games that will have the biggest impact on the playoff picture:

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

It's arguable that this is the best matchup of the entire regular season. Most rankings have the Seahawks and Rams as the top two teams in the NFL, and with both teams at 11-3, this Thursday night's game feels like it will not only determine who wins the NFC West but the No. 1 seed in the NFC as well.

It's possible the Rams lose but still win the NFC West. They have a much easier schedule (they play at Falcons and vs. Cardinals, while Seattle is at Panthers and at 49ers). If the Seahawks lose, it is very hard to envision them winning the division because they would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker due to a Rams' season sweep.

The entire NFC playoff picture changes based on who wins Thursday night.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Because the Buccaneers face the Panthers two times in the final three weeks, Tampa Bay wins the NFC South by winning any two of their remaining three games. They have the tiebreaker over the Panthers if the sweep them or even if they split, due torecord against common opponents.

That means the Panthers aren't dead in the NFC South race if they lose, but it would mean Tampa Bay could clinch in Week 17 by beating the Dolphins. A win Sunday for the Panthers means they'll at the very least be alive in Week 18 when they face Tampa Bay again.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos

The Broncos are in the playoffs already and the Jaguars are pretty close to a lock. But this one still matters.

The Jaguars are trying to hold off the Houston Texans for the AFC South championship, and the Texans have the easier remaining schedule. A Jaguars loss at Denver and a Houston win Sunday against the Raiders would cause a tie atop the division. If the Jaguars lose Sunday and the Texans win out, Houston wins the division based on the tiebreaker of record in conference games, according to the Jaguars' site.

The Broncos' goal is obvious: Get the No. 1 seed. Denver would get it with two more wins; they have the tiebreaker over the Patriots due to a better record against common opponents.

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens

While the Patriots are now a significant underdog to get the No. 1 seed, they still have to hold off the Bills in the AFC East after last Sunday's loss. A loss to the Ravens would knock the Patriots back into a tie for first place, if the Bills beat the Browns.

The Ravens might need to win out to take the AFC North. They are a game behind the Steelers in the division, though they face Pittsburgh in the season finale. If the Ravens lose either of their next two games, the Steelers could clinch the division before Week 18.