'Cincinnati may be out of the mix, but pride still counts for fantasy football' — Tale of the Take, Week 16

Five fresh tales for five players in Week 16, all tied to the matchups that decide your fantasy football playoffs. I'll walk you through the setup and deliver five takes. It's Week 16 Tale of the Take - good luck and let's get it.

Trust and targets should travel to Detroit for Kenneth Gainwell

The Tale:You don't need a cutup to see it. When No. 14 has the ball, it's just different than when Jaylen Warren has it. On a Pittsburgh offense short on trusted pass catchers, Kenneth Gainwell is one of Aaron Rodgers' guys. Full stop.

The data tracks the eye test. Gainwell has a 28.1% targets per route run rate, living in a neighborhood usually reserved for alpha wideouts like Ja'Marr Chase, Rashee Rice and Amon-Ra St. Brown. He's also in that tiny circle of running backs leading their team in receptions, alongside Christian McCaffrey and De'Von Achane. That matters in Week 16 because usage that sticky travels no matter the look, and this week's look is tailor-made to feed him.

Detroit can score points in bunches. Vegas hung 52 on the total with the Lions indoors as 7-point home favorites, which means volume for the Steelers' passing game stays alive all day. Since Week 12, the Lions defense has sprung leaks, allowing a league-high 328 passing yards per game, a league-high 453 total yards per game and a league-high 24.5 first downs per game. That's exactly what you want to hear when your running back is a route winner who earns targets each and every week. Gainwell isn't just catching checkdowns. He's moving the chains, making plays in space and setting up the offense to keep the sticks moving.

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Against Miami, Gainwell handled 14 carries and seven catches. The roles seem pretty defined. Warren offers physicality between the tackles and at the goal line, while Gainwell is the outlet, the tempo, the player the quarterback trusts when drives are forced to go to the air. Pittsburgh wants to keep stacking momentum inside the division. Detroit needs to win to keep its hopes alive, so the pace and pressure should hold. I'm playing Gainwell with zero hesitation and I expect another high workload in the receiving game with enough rush attempts to keep him locked on the starter radar.

The Take: Kenneth Gainwell finishes Week 16 as a top-15 fantasy running back.

Slump buster on deck for Justin Herbert

The Tale:It's been rough. Justin Herbert hasn't cracked a top-10 quarterback finish since Week 9, and the slide matches the state of the line. The Chargers have shuffled bodies all season and they're missing both bookend tackles, Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. Even with that, I'm not shying away from Herbert in Dallas. The total sits at 49.5 with the Cowboys favored by 2.5. The additions up front have definitely helped their run defense, but through the air, they're still giving up production. Jared Goff went for 309 and a score. J.J. McCarthy posted two passing touchdowns and added one on the ground. Patrick Mahomes threw four touchdowns on 261 yards. Jalen Hurts dropped three touchdowns in the most recent showing.

This is a get-right lane for a passer who can push it.

The target tree has been a headache. Ladd McConkey hasn't hit. Keenan Allen hasn't delivered. Quentin Johnston has been inconsistent, period. The backfield has been the lone steady drumbeat. Where Dallas can be had is in space against that linebacking corps. Oronde Gadsden II's size and speed - plus those second-level issues in Dallas - can create real problems for the Boys. Gadsden can win his own battles or free up teammates on in breakers and red-zone work.

I can't tell you exactly which Chargers wideout pops. I am telling you the quarterback bounces back. Herbert's arm talent paired with his willingness to run is enough to break the slump against this pass defense. Dallas will score and that will force the Chargers to score. And here's the thing - they can. They absolutely can. Dallas is a slump-buster defense and this is a slump-buster spot for Herbert.

The Take: Herbert shakes off the funk and delivers a top quarterback finish in Week 16 versus Dallas.

Ashton Jeanty vs. Houston - Volume meets a brick wall

The Tale: Listen, I know where we drafted Ashton Jeanty. I know what he was supposed to be on your roster. The truth is, this environment is not built for consistent rushing success right now. The Raiders are broken. This team has lost eight straight and just got buried by the Eagles, barely clearing 100 total yards of offense. It has been 11 weeks since Jeanty hit 100 yards. He hasn't scored a rushing touchdown in six weeks. The receptions aren't flipping fields. He hasn't been able to show the full skillset behind an offensive line that isn't holding up and a quarterback situation in flux between Geno Smith and Kenny Pickett. Geno returning to practice helps, but the task on deck in Week 16 is a buzzsaw.

Houston is a problem. On the season, the Texans have the fourth-best rushing defense at about 92 yards per game and the fourth-best passing defense at about 176 per game. Their sack rate sits at 8.5%, which is sixth best. They allow the fewest first downs per game at 16. They are top-three on third down. Time of possession tilts their way and the Raiders allow opponents to hold it for 32 minutes.

It's win or go home for us in fantasy. None of this is about Jeanty's talent. He's getting everything you can ask for from a usage standpoint. He's a top-three back by utilization. But everything around him is deficient.

If you have to roll him as a volume-based RB2, I get it. But in this same game, if Woody Marks sits and Jawhar Jordan gets the work, I'd bet Jordan outscores Jeanty. There are other names you can start over Jeanty this week, even if they don't sound pretty.

The Take: Ashton Jeanty finishes outside the top-20 running backs in Week 16.

Under the lights, it's next man up - and that's Colston Loveland

The Tale:Bears and Packers in Chicago on Saturday night with the division scent in the air. Chicago just handled Cleveland. Green Bay just took a gut punch from Denver and came out of it lighter on bodies. It lost arguably one of the best defenders in the league in Micah Parsons, whose ability to generate pressure and change the focal point of protections tilts every snap, and it already lost Devonte Wyatt for the season. On top of that, the Packers may be down a key protector in offensive lineman Zach Tom. That's a battered group walking into a hostile building.

Rookie tight end Colston Loveland has played like a grown man at times this season, has been ready when his number gets called and the runway is there for a spike game in prime time.

Chicago may be thin at wideout. As of Wednesday, Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III did not practice. We've seen the Bears make Loveland part of the plan early, then the ball gets spread and the volume cools. Even with that, the usage is real. Loveland has five targets in four straight games. He's caught at least four passes in three of those four and he's found the paint in two of the four. When he touches it, the energy changes. He's a friendly window over the middle and a bully in traffic when it's time to move the sticks.

Green Bay's defense is dinged. The pass rush and the middle of the field won't look the same without their main dudes. If Chicago is down multiple receivers, Loveland becomes the pressure release and the finisher in scoring areas.

I think Loveland becomes more of a focal point in the offense. The Bears can take a step up in the NFC North with a win, and the rookie is lined up to help them get it done.

The Take: Colston Loveland scores a touchdown and delivers a big Week 16 against Green Bay.

Big Bengals bounce back

The Tale: It's been bad. Cincinnati opened the fantasy playoffs with a zero against Baltimore, Joe Burrow threw two picks and took hits and while Ja'Marr Chase still stacked catches and yards, the offense was not good. As of Wednesday, Tee Higgins practiced after missing Week 15 in concussion protocol, and now the Bengals head to Miami as -4.5 favorites. The Dolphins are starting rookie Quinn Ewers after Tua Tagovailoa was benched. Even in a season that went sideways, these Bengals have said they want to put up points, put up yards, put on a show. I think that's exactly what happens this weekend.

Miami's defense isn't awful, but it can be had. It's allowing about 202 passing yards per game, yet it's much softer on the ground at 132 per game, which is sixth-worst. On the other side, Cincinnati is the absolute worst, allowing nearly 160 rushing yards per game, so De'Von Achane can pop explosives that keep this game spicy and keep Burrow throwing. A rookie quarterback on the other sideline also opens the door for short fields. If Ewers gifts a turnover or two, Burrow won't need seven-step magic to cash. He'll need rhythm, timing and his guys healthy enough to do what they do.

I expect a professional response. Burrow locks onto Chase early. Tee Higgins' return matters in the red area. Chase Brown's burst plays against a front that tires late in games. Warm air, clean footing, confident quarterback with his top receivers. Cincinnati may be out of the mix, but pride still counts for fantasy football. This is the week the Bengals pay you back on the road with volume, efficiency and enough splash to carry lineups.

The Take: Cincinnati gets right in Miami as Burrow rebounds and Chase, Higgins and Brown deliver big fantasy lines in Week 16.