NFL 2025 Week 16 Start 'Em Sit 'Em: Stack Brock Purdy and Jauan Jennings

Thursday Night Football kicked off the fantasy football semi-finals with a bang. If you faced Puka Nacua, I hope these Starts help you claw your way back into the race. If Puka is on your squad, maybe some of my Sits will be in your opponent's lineup.

QuarterbackStart: Brock Purdy, 49ers

Purdy was a big hit for me last week based on sportsbooks' love of the 49ers. You won't believe it, but Vegas is backing San Francisco once again. Their 26-point implied team total is the fourth-highest of the week. The Colts-their Week 16 matchup-rank 14th in pass EPA allowed and third in rush EPA. That disparity has led Colts opponents to record a +2% pass rate over expected, the third-highest mark in the league. Purdy should have volume on his side this week and his efficiency numbers speak for themselves.

He is top-two in EPA per play and CPOE.

Start: Jacoby Brissett, Cardinals

Sportsbooks are projecting a romp in Atlanta, with a 48.5 total and both sides over 22 implied points. The Falcons began the year as a shutdown defense through the air but have since regressed to a below-average unit. Dating back to Week 10, Atlanta ranks 19th in EPA per dropback allowed. They gave up at least 27 points to all but one of their opponents during that stretch. Brissett is the QB4 since taking over as Arizona's starter in Week 6. He's a smash in this spot.

Sit: Marcus Mariota, Commanders

Mariota has been a high-floor streaming option as the Commanders' starter, throwing for at least one touchdown and rushing for at least 20 yards in all of his starts. That might come to an end this week. Pro Football Focus has Mariota graded as their No. 32 passer under pressure this year. He is set to face a Philly defense that generates pressure at the eighth-highest rate. Mariota will do so without his left tackle, Laremy Tunsil, who is out with an oblique injury. If you've been riding the Mariota train to QB2 numbers thusfar, this might be your time to hop off.

Sit: Jordan Love, Packers

There are worse spots than the Packers' Week 16 matchup with the Bears, but it's not a game I am actively targeting for passing production. Green Bay has a -2% PROE this year and the Bears are at -4%.

Chicago's opponents have matched their run-heavy approach with a -5% PROE, the third-lowest rate this season. Expect lots of running from all parties involved in this contest.

2025 Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings: QBRanking and evaluating all of Week 16's top plays at quarterback.

• Patrick Daugherty,

Running BackStart: Chase Brown, Bengals

Brown has not so quietly become one of the league's premier pass-catching backs. He ranks top-five in targets (75), catches (58), and yards (336). On the ground, Samaje Perine has recently limited his rushing workload. That won't be an issue this week as the Bengals are favored by four against Miami. They should have plenty of opportunities to get Brown going between the tackles, even if Perine steals the occasional carry. There simply isn't a game script where Brown is phased out.

Start: Michael Carter, Cardinals

The Cardinals lost Bam Knight to an ankle injury and Trey Benson is now stuck on injured reserve for the remainder of the season. That leaves them with Carter and Emari Demercado to tote the rock this week. Carter out-carried Demercado 14-1 last week. He caught four passes to Demercado's two on the back of a 72 percent route rate. Carter looks like a workhorse back playing in a sneaky shootout.

Sit: Jaylen Warren, Steelers

The Steelers appeared to throw in the towel on Warren as their lead back in Week 15. Kenneth Gainwell dominated him in all opportunity metrics.

	Snap Share	Carry Share	Route Rate	Target Share
Kenneth Gainwell	52%	41%	50%	26%
Jaylen Warren	45%	38%	47%	11%

Even if Warren does reclaim some of the between-the-tackles work from Gainwell, the Steelers are seven-point underdogs this week. Gainwell is the back to target here.

Sit: Quinshon Judkins, Browns

Judkins looks like a long-term starter in the NFL, but it's just not happening on this iteration of the Browns offense. Judkins is averaging 16.3 carries for 46 yards (2.8 yards per carry) since Shedeur Sanders took over as the starter in Week 12. He has the ninth-most carries during that stretch but the fourth-most attempts with eight or more box defenders. Judkins stays at fourth even if you remove attempts with three or fewer yards to go, which should help account for his short-yardage duties. Defenses are selling out to stop the run against the Browns and it has generally worked. The Bills have fielded an awful run defense this year, but I fear they will get on track this week because they won't have to respect the pass.

2025 Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings: RBRanking and evaluating all of Week 16's top plays at running back.

• Patrick Daugherty,

Wide ReceiverStart: Adonai Mitchell, Jets

Mitchell narrowly survived Brady Cook's disastrous debut in Week 15. A nine-yard touchdown grab in the first quarter secured a solid fantasy outing, even if he finished the day with a pedestrian six grabs for 58 yards. Mitchell is seeing so much volume that even atrocious quarterback play can't stop him. He has a 27 percent target share and an outrageous 50 percent air yards share since joining Gang Green.

Start: Jauan Jennings, 49ers

Ricky Pearsall isn't practicing this week after suffering ankle and knee injuries in Week 15. The team flirted with a Pearsall renaissance on Sunday, targeting him seven times compared to five for Jennings. With Pearsall either severely hampered or out entirely for Week 16, Jennings' role should be secure. He has made the most of that role as of late, averaging 14.7 PPR points over his past six games. If we're playing Purdy, Jennings is a solid stacking option in redraft and DFS.

Sit: Troy Franklin, Broncos

Franklin was a hit last week because he reclaimed his role as the Broncos' No. 2 receiver. That only happened with Pat Bryant sidelined. Bryant is practicing in full this week, indicating he will play on Sunday. If that's the case, Franklin can be sent back to the fantasy bench. He had a 54 percent route rate and a nine percent target share in the two games leading up to Bryant's absence.

Sit: Michael Pittman, Colts

I'm calling it a season on Colts pass-catchers. That's not to say every one of them will fail every week, only that predicting who will overcome the odds might be an impossible task. Philip Rivers completed 2-of-10 throws farther than 10 yards downfield in his return to duty. Even for a low aDOT receiver like Pittman, this complete lack of an intermediate or deep passing game will be crippling. Pittman logged a 20 percent target share in Week 15, three points below his season-long average. He caught a measly three passes for 26 yards. Indy's lead receiver by catches and yards was Ameer Abdullah.

2025 Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings: WRRanking and evaluating all of Week 16's top plays at receiver.

• Patrick Daugherty,

Tight EndStart: Harold Fannin, Browns

The Browns are a putrid offense and I tend to shy away from playing players in truly horrific situations. With that being said, I can't fade a tight end coming off a 47 percent target share. David Njoku has missed two games this year and left a third after just six snaps. Fannin had target shares of 27, 29, and 47 percent in those contests. He averaged 15 PPR points between the three games. Njoku should be ruled out once the team's final injury report drops, locking Fannin in for another TE1 performance.

Start: Darren Waller, Dolphins

I am terrified to see what Quinn Ewers does in his first start. He should, however, lean on his starting tight end. The Bengals funnel opportunities to the position like no other team. They have faced 140 tight end targets this year. Only four teams are even over 120. Waller's role is also on the rise. He earned a monstrous 36 percent target share versus the Steelers on Monday. That was easily his season-high and nearly double his previous best mark.

Sit: Jake Ferguson, Cowboys

Ferguson has quietly faded to the background in Dallas since CeeDee Lamb returned to the lineup. Lamb missed a few games early in the year and retook the field in Week 7. Ferguson popped that week and has since gone dormant. He is averaging 7.1 PPR points per game over that stretch and has a dismal 14 percent target share. Ferguson has one TE1 outing over his past six games.

Sit: Isaiah Likely, Ravens

Likely's role is all over the place this year, but the highs have not been enough to outweigh the lows. He hasn't run a route on more than 61 percent of the team's dropbacks since Week 6. He has seen more than four targets in a game twice all season and six has been his ceiling. Likely has gone under four points more often than he has gone over that mark.

2025 Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings: TE, K, DEFRanking and evaluating all of Week 16's top plays at tight end, kicker, and defense.

• Patrick Daugherty,