Early Week 17 NFL bets to make right now: Why the Cowboys are a good bet

There are only two weeks left in the regular season, and the battle of attrition takes the spotlight this week in the NFL. We have three NFL games on Christmas Day, as the NFL plays Grinch on a holiday previously dominated by the NBA. However, what were expected to be amazing matchups with playoff consequences turned into forecasted one-sided affairs with heavy underdogs led by unknown quarterbacks.

As of this writing, we are projected to have Josh Johnson start for the Commanders (Marcus Mariota and Jayden Daniels are out), Chris Oladokun represent the Chiefs (instead of Patrick Mahomes or Gardner Minshew) and Max Brosmer helm the Vikings (as JJ McCarthy deals with his third injury of the NFL season). Health is going to be of utmost importance this week.

Here are three early week bets worth placing now to try and front some of the injury news coming in and get ahead of closing lines.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Dallas Cowboys (-6.5. 50.5) at Washington Commanders

Commanders head coach Dan Quinn held a somber press conference on Monday. The primary reports regarded addressing the lengthy injury report piling up for a team that faces a short-week divisional matchup against the Cowboys. We know Daniels is shut down for the season after aggravating his left elbow injury in Week 14, but now Mariota is dealing with a hand and quad injury - the hand injury is to his throwing hand and he had to get stitches on it. That is certainly going to make snapping and throwing difficult.

One of the league's best left tackles, Laremy Tunsil, is dealing with an oblique injury, while right guard Sam Cosmi entered concussion protocol. Cosmi is highly unlikely to clear concussion protocol before a short week Thursday game, and Tunsil has no incentive to rush back considering he is regarded as a core piece of Washington's future and the team has been eliminated from the playoffs.

The handicap here is simple: I expect Mariota, Tunsil and Cosmi to all be out for the Commanders and this line to move another point towards Dallas. This line - currently sitting at Cowboys -6.5 (-110) - is an amazing price to grab right now. Dallas doesn't have playoff hopes to play for itself, but relying on postseason intentions as a means to handicap NFL games has long been disproven; players and coaches always play to win, and the Cowboys will have a massive talent edge considering the injury reports.

Bet: Cowboys -6.5

New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders (-1, 42)

In a game featuring the two worst teams in the NFL this season, both sitting at 2-13, this game has surprisingly featured some of the most obvious sharp movement in the early week of the Week 17 NFL slate. The Raiders opened as 1.5-point home underdogs, and now have moved to favorites at -1.

Historically, when a line moves through the 1's and the priced favorite switches teams, the sharpest move has been to take the team now priced as an underdog, the Giants in this case, and use the teaser feature to bring them up to +7 as a Wong Teaser leg." However, what was basically a blindly profitable strategy on a decent sample size has been priced out by the betting market starting this season.

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Wong Teaser criteria showed using the two-leg, six-point teaser moving through both 3 and 7 to be a great bet at -120 odds. But no legal sportsbook is still offering that value, and everything has been bumped up to -125 or greater, neutralizing the edge. Now I see these movements happen in the betting market and don't even consider reaching for the teaser feature.

Instead, the best way to play this is by looking at the team taking sharp action and wondering if it will continue to push further out - and in this case I think it does and it's worth chasing the Raiders steam.

Las Vegas has a veteran quarterback in Geno Smith, who just played well against the stout Houston Texans defense, a veteran coach in Pete Carroll, and veteran defensive pass-rusher in Maxx Crosby. On the other side, the Giants under Mike Kafka are really struggling and he will not be retaining the interim coach job. Jaxson Dart might be replaced by a strong rookie QB class, and the Giants seem to be tumbling towards the No. 1 overall draft pick.

New York is 0-8 this season on the road going into a hostile Raiders environment at Allegiant Stadium. I want to back the home team with experience here.

Bet: Raiders -1 (-105)

Denver Broncos (-13, 36.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are a rare example where leaning on the nothing to play for" narrative likely holds some water.

In back-to-back weeks, Kansas City saw its quarterbacks suffer season-ending injuries, was eliminated from playoff contention, lost to the Tennessee Titans and now faces one of the best defenses in the NFL. I certainly expect the Chiefs' struggles to carry over to this game - but perhaps more notably was the move away from giving the veterans the ball and leaning more on the youth on their team.

Development should be at the forefront for this team right now. Running back Kareem Hunt, who has been a red zone force this season playing with Mahomes, only got two carries. Brashard Smith and Isaiah Pacheco both saw their snap counts increase instead. The WR group is veteran laden with Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Travis Kelce.

In a game with a very low total, I expect the Chiefs to focus on the run and finding their younger talent to get opportunities with designed runs, end arounds, and short passes hoping to get them space. It also likely means third down-and-distance situations and quick punts for Kansas City's offense. Asking Chris Oladokun to pass the ball more than 30 times is likely not happening, even in a losing game script. I expect his pass attempts prop to drop by two attempts here, so take the under on 30.5 throws by Oladokun.

Bet: Chris Oladokun under 30.5 pass attempts