Early NFL wild-card bets to make right now: Is it finally Josh Allen's time to shine?

The NFL playoffs are here. As always, I will aim to give some betting advice and picks for this coming week that gain closing line value between now and kickoff.

But I also like to start with a bit of advice: Just because the game matters more to the teams and players, it does not matter more to your bankroll. In fact, I almost prefer to go the opposite direction and bet smaller in the playoffs. Now that we have reached the postseason, a lot of the uncertainty the regular-season market tries to price - and smart bettors are capable of exploiting - no longer exists. We have 17-game sample-size data to accurately forecast a sharp spread and total. Injury news has less of an unknown factor throughout the week. There are less lines to price for sportsbooks. This of course applies to main markets like spreads and totals, but also extends to all the derivative player props that can be bet. With more certainty within each game and fewer lines to price, the lines are much sharper.

As betting edges decrease, ideally so should bet size. Our betting Super Bowl" can be a random Week 7 game. It does not literally need to be the actual Super Bowl. Here are two best bets for the NFL wild-card round:

Is it finally Josh Allen's time in the playoffs?Timothy T Ludwig via Getty ImagesBuffalo Bills (-1.5, 52.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Josh Allen gets an AFC playoff run without Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow standing in his way. The difficulty is facing a Jaguars team playing lights out football on both sides of the ball. The Jaguars have won eight straight games and secured the AFC South with a 13-4 record.

The starting place for my handicap is always using NFL market ratings. For the playoffs, I am more reliant on post-Week 17 data than I am post-Week 18 information. Market ratings are created via an unbiased formula to compare closing lines across the league, while weighting more recent games heavier. While there are flaws in this approach worth being aware of, market ratings provide a great starting point to understand spread pricing for NFL games. The reason to avoid using Week 18 data is because so many key players around the league missed the week (including on the Bills) and therefore the data is muddied. It is important to save an updated copy of market ratings each week to go back and reference. Using this approach, Buffalo is 1.2 points better than Jacksonville. But we need to account for the Jags' home-field advantage, which is typically worth 1.5 points, bringing us to basically a pick 'em spread.

The next handicapping factor is matchup specific. Market ratings allow us to price any two teams, but negate on-field intricacies that create diversions from blanket numbers. In this case, I think the matchup clearly favors Buffalo. The Bills strength is a strong dual-threat run game. The Bills play a lot of multi-TE sets, but have tight ends who are capable blockers and downfield pass catchers, creating another dual-threat look. They can generate explosive plays on long runs and play-action passes, and have a very smart QB in Josh Allen to identify weaknesses.

On the other end, Jacksonville has been very impressive in the pass game. Since acquiring WR Jakobi Meyers via midseason trade and getting TE Brenton Strange back from injured reserve, the Jags' offense has taken off. The Jaguars have averaged 32.9 points per game since Meyers' arrival, up from 20.4 earlier in the season. In the final six games, Trevor Lawrence threw for nearly 1,600 yards with a 15:1 TD-to-INT ratio. He was playing at an MVP level. Passing against Buffalo is where things get difficult for Jacksonville. The Bills allow the fewest passing yards per game in the NFL at 156.9 yards per game. In 10 of the Bills' 17 games, opposing net passing yards were fewer than 100. In nine of the games, the opposing QB rating was below 72.

Consistent disruptions, tight coverage and pressure from a strong Bills secondary is where Jacksonville really loses its recent edge.

Therefore, I am looking to back the Buffalo Bills here - and the early market signals agree. Right now the consensus line is -1.5 (-110), but the ML at -120 represents the best value bet at MGM, since the move onto and off the 1 is about 6-7 cents in NFL betting, and therefore the ML should be around -123. This opened at -115-ish and has seen slight action on the Bills side. I am also reminded of a recent matchup against New England where the Bills took clear gameday late sharp action, so I think it may come here as well.

Bet: Buffalo Bills ML (-120), up to 1 unit

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 45)

Wondering where the sharp action has been thus far in early playoff betting? Look no further than this matchup. There have been two very clear moves here: toward the Eagles and toward the under. The Eagles opened at 2.5- or 3-point favorites as a consensus price that is now out to Eagles -4.5. Considering the move off the 3, this is a humongous value shift.

The total is down from 46.5 to 45, with 44.5s emerging in the market, too. I am not going to steam chase and bet the Eagles here, after missing the value. It's a basic principle for me to just stay away at that point. However, the total dropping from 46.5 to 45 is a move I will process as a data point, showing the sharp side is the under.

For NFL totals, understanding key numbers is critical. The opening line through the 46 is not too significant, as 46 is the 17th-most common NFL scoring outcome over the last four seasons. Forty-five is also the 15th-most common scoring outcome, however 44 and 43 are both top five. Seeing signals that this could get down to 44.5 means I definitely want to get in before any 44's shows up.

The reason to bet the under here is because these are two run-heavy offenses. Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley are two household names, and both are offensive focal points. Since the 49ers lost key players on defense like Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, teams have been exploiting their front seven and focusing on the rushing attack, while the 49ers have been putting together slow and methodical drives on offense. The Eagles also have the sixth-best defense based on DVOA and allow the fifth-fewest points.

Bet: Under 45 (-110), up to 0.75 units