NFL Playoff Power Rankings: Seahawks, Jaguars headline the top tier; how far can Josh Allen lead Bills?
Point Differential: 23rd
Points Per Game: 27th
Offensive EPA: 26th
Defensive EPA: 23rd
Dropback EPA: 24th
Run Game EPA: 27th
The worst team to make the playoffs in quite some time, the Panthers don't do anything particularly well and profile more as a bottom-10 squad than top-14 by most metrics, advanced or otherwise. They did navigate a gauntlet schedule to get here, but as you can see, they lost more games than they won. This weekend's confounding factor is that the Panthers beat the Rams team they will be hosting on Saturday in this same stadium just six weeks ago, but there is every reason to believe thatwas the lightning in the bottle. It's an any given Sunday sport, but this upcoming Sunday is when the Panthers should already find themselves back at home on the couch.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)Point Differential: 18th
Points Per Game: 15th
Offensive EPA: 18th
Defensive EPA: 19th
Dropback EPA: 16th
Run Game EPA: 24th
The vagaries of fate are very real - they just always seem to favor the Pittsburgh Steelers. That, of course, only applies to the regular season, where Mike Tomlin's squad seems physically incapable of missing the playoffs. Once they get there, however, gravity always reasserts itself, and a first-round crash out is almost certainly coming this time around, too. There are some reasons for pause. The Texans are unlikely to turn this into a shootout, and the Steelers have Hall-of-Famers as far as the eye can see. That includes at quarterback, on the sideline, and along the defensive line. They stared down playoff death the past two weeks and have been rewarded with the return of their only truly viable offensive weapon, DK Metcalf. It's just that, even if the Steelers do upset the Texans, their margin for error is too slim to do it two more times to reach the Super Bowl. Against all odds, the Steelers have become a good story. It should still be expected to end very soon.
12. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)Point Differential: 14th
Points Per Game: 20th
Offensive EPA: 24th
Defensive EPA: 6th
Dropback EPA: 7th
Run Game EPA: 4th
Strengths and weaknesses aren't always as apparent as you might guess. But you can spot a fatal flaw from a mile away. This team probably has one in its offensive line. It's a shame because the Chargers are loaded with blue-chip players on both sides of the ball, and have one of the best coaches to ever do it. Justin Herbert is smack dab in the middle of his prime. This shouldbe one of the most dangerous teams in the field. Instead, the greatest danger is to Herbert behind his blocking. There's enough talent and brainpower here to make a run despite it all, but four games of duct tape-and-glue pass protection is simply too much to ask. Even one could prove far fetched, though the Patriots have one of the league's least-effective pass rushes. L.A. is live for a round one upset. Anything else is probably a pipe dream.
11. Green Bay Packers (9-8)Point Differential: 13th
Points Per Game: 16th
Offensive EPA: 4th
Defensive EPA: 22nd
Dropback EPA: 22nd
Run Game EPA: 18th
How live are the Green Bay Packers to upset the Bears in Game 3 of their 2025-26 trilogy? They are favoredon the road against the NFC's No. 2 seed. So pretty live. Beyond that? Any hope of making a dark horse Super Bowl run probably went out the window with Micah Parsons' knee injury. The defense isn't good enough, and the offensive playmakers aren't explosive enough. It is at least a deep skill corps, but one coach Matt LaFleur constantly neglects in favor of a running game that wheezed to the finish line as Josh Jacobs battled various injuries. Jacobs did get Week 18 to heal up, but this is too flawed of a group with too passive of a mindset - LaFleur has never met a hyper-conservative decision he didn't like - to shock the world without its best overall player.
10. San Francisco 49ers (12-5)Point Differential: 9th
Points Per Game: 10th
Offensive EPA: 6th
Defensive EPA: 24th
Dropback EPA: 25th
Run Game EPA: 17th
The 49ers are nothing if not a never-ending saga. Brock Purdy missed eight starts and the Niners still managed to finagle a Week 18 play-in game for the NFC's No. 1 seed. They lost, and now find themselves as road dogs who could be missing their left tackle and primary down-field threat against the Eagles. It is never easy in Shannyland despite how easy the head coach makes it look when his offense is going right. The Niners could probably survive the loss of Trent Williams and Ricky Pearsall if the defense were in top-top shape, but it's nowhere close. Biblically injured - Nick Bosa and Fred Warner being the biggest names - this is probably the worst 49ers defense of the Shanny golden years. DC Robert Saleh is a not-so-secret weapon, but the Niners' flaws mean a Philly road upset will probably be too difficult to pull off, nipping another potential Super Bowl run in the bud.
DraftKings Playoff Best Ball 2026 Rankings: Puka Nacua leads the wayPuka Nacua and the Rams are heavy favorites over the Panthers in the Wild Card Round, making them one of the best bets in DraftKings Playoff Best Ball drafts. 9. Chicago Bears (11-6)
Kyle DvorchakPoint Differential: 15th
Points Per Game: 9th
Offensive EPA: 8th
Defensive EPA: 21st
Dropback EPA: 20th
Run Game EPA: 21st
The Bears were lucky, not that there's anything wrong with that. The better you are, the luckier you get. But there's no point in denying the obvious that this is an 11-6 team that could have easily gone 8-9. Only the Panthers and Steelers have worse point differentials amongst this year's playoff field. The Bears lived off one-score victories, including two one-pointvictories. One win that did come by multiple scores was the Eagles in Week 13. The Bears are multi-dimensional on offense, and have the league's best new coach in Ben Johnson. Although home underdogs for the Wild Card Round, this is not a team where a run to the NFC Championship Game would be surprising. The Super Bowl probably would be, and it's ultimately difficult to shake the sense this is a talented roster with a brilliant coaching staff that is just a little too ahead of schedule to actually cash in this season's upstart achievements.
8. Buffalo Bills (12-5)Point Differential: 5th
Points Per Game: 4th
Offensive EPA: 3rd
Defensive EPA: 13th
Dropback EPA: 8th
Run Game EPA: 31st
The Bills can win the Super Bowl. That's especially true with longtime nemesis Patrick Mahomes out of the postseason, to say nothing of Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson. The teams that have traditionally stood in Buffalo's way couldn't overcome their 2025 issues. The Bills obviously have, but boy do they have issues. On defense, they can't stop the run and don't really get after the passer. On offense, they lack premium weapons, which has led to Josh Allen's wildest play since before his 2020 breakout. His turnovers spiked on last year's personal-best numbers, while he took 40 sacks for the first time in his career. Allen is doing everything in his power to make big plays, but he's having to do it all by himself. Of any NFL player, Allen is of course the most capable of doing it by himself. But that is what it's going to take for the Bills to break their championship curse. A legendary run by a Hall-of-Fame talent. You can't put it past him. It's also unfair to expect of any one man.
7. Denver Broncos (14-3)Point Differential: 7th
Points Per Game: 14th
Offensive EPA: 15th
Defensive EPA: 8th
Dropback EPA: 9th
Run Game EPA: 8th
Will the Broncos even be favored in the Divisional Round? The answer is most likely yes," but it will be no" if the Bills look convincing in a theoretical Jaguars upset as the Chargers lose. That might say more about our quarterback and narrative infatuations than anything else, but it also says something about the Broncos, one of the weakest No. 1 seeds in recent memory. 14-3 is never easy, no matter how soft the schedule or how fluky some of the victories. But ... only New England had a softer schedule amongst playoff teams. And if not fluky, some of the Broncos' wins were mighty unimpressive. Just since Thanksgiving they have: Beat Marcus Mariota's Commanders by one point. Beat the No. 1 selecting Raiders by one score. Beat Chris Oladokunby one score.Last but not least, they struggled to put away the Chargers' second and third team with the No. 1 seed on the line in Week 18. When you're good, you make your own luck. We are, after all, talking about victories. But the Broncos sure seem like they will require further good fortune to reach the Super Bowl.
6. Houston Texans (12-5)Point Differential: 6th
Points Per Game: 13th
Offensive EPA: 22nd
Defensive EPA: 2nd
Dropback EPA: 1st
Run Game EPA: 3rd
We can debate the precise team nobody wants to face this postseason," but the Texans are in the running. They have the best defensive line in the tournament, and one of the best secondaries. The offense has been much better in the second half of the season, with several young players coming on strong while Nico Collins continues to do his thing. Oh, and they haven't lost since Halloween weekend. They've lost twice since September. This is a dangerous, well-rounded group. They are handicapped by having to begin their journey on the road, though they are favored against the pesky but highly beatable Steelers. Although this is a young group, it has plenty of postseason experience, winning at least one game each of the past two years. In summary: The Texans have no glaring weaknesses and boast more strengths than most of their adversaries. They might have to go 3-0 on the road to do it, but the Super Bowl is a very real possibility.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)Point Differential: 10th
Points Per Game: 19th
Offensive EPA: 17th
Defensive EPA: 9th
Dropback EPA: 11th
Run Game EPA: 9th
The Eagles can't complain but sometimes they still do. Life was nevertheless good down the stretch. A mid-season swoon that was beginning to mirror their 2023 collapse stabilized around the holidays. If blanking the Raiders and edging out the Commanders wasn't the most convincing, beating the Bills was a little more impressive. Reinforcements are on their way for the postseason, with RT Lane Johnson finally returning and LG Landon Dickerson healthier after taking Week 18 off. This remains an elite defense. The offense is versatile if highly inconsistent. There's every reason to believe this team can still win at all. We just know there's ample evidence they could be one-and-done, too. Not as imposing as they were last season but not as vulnerable as the fan and media handwringing would lead you to believe, the Eagles are ready to settle this on the field.
4. New England Patriots (14-3)Point Differential: 3rd
Points Per Game: 2nd
Offensive EPA: 1st
Defensive EPA: 11th
Dropback EPA: 10th
Run Game EPA: 16th
The Patriots had an historically easy schedule - that they turned into a 14-3 record and the AFC's best point differential. One thing good teams do is beat up on bad teams. The Patriots spent the entire season doing so. The Pats can run the ball, stop the run, and have a quarterback capable of creating offense all by his lonesome. Those are three of the hallmarks of championship squads. With that out of the way, there's no point in pretending the Pats are something they're not. They dohave a lot to prove, more than any other team in the field. They played three teams that finished with winning records. They went 1-2, splitting with this flawed edition of the Bills. The good news is, if the Pats are unproven, their first postseason opponent has just as many question marks. If New England can advance past the Chargers and their injury-ruined offensive line, they get another home game. If they can beat whomever they face out of Houston, Pittsburgh and Jacksonville, they would then go on to face the aforementioned Bills or Broncos. Denver is almost as unknown of a commodity as the Pats. The scheduling gods have been smiling down on the Pats this season. They might not stop in January, making a Super Bowl berth eminently realistic.
3. Los Angeles Rams (12-5)Point Differential: 2nd
Points Per Game: 1st
Offensive EPA: 2nd
Defensive EPA: 7th
Dropback EPA: 6th
Run Game EPA: 12th
The Rams have the best coach and a quarterback who will probably ultimately be named MVP. They have the playoffs' best receiver duo as well as a legitimate two-man backfield. The defense is highly inconsistent, especially of late, but is stocked with playmakers. They, of course, have experience, though Super Bowl LVI was longer ago than you might realize. This is not Sean McVay's best team, but it's close. The Rams might be the least flawed team in the field even if a few other squads have more upside," whatever that means. They've seen it all. This year they came close to doing it all, losing to the 49ers and Seahawks, but also beating them. The Rams have victories over AFC heavyweights Houston and Jacksonville. Starting with a glide path revenge game matchup with a Panthers team that shocked them six weeks ago, the Rams would be this year's least surprising Super Bowl participant not named Seattle.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4)Point Differential: 4th
Points Per Game: 6th
Offensive EPA: 12th
Defensive EPA: 5th
Dropback EPA: 4th
Run Game EPA: 7th
Are the Jacksonville Jaguarsthe most dangerous team in the league right now? 9-1 since their Week 8 bye, the Jags haven't just been winning, they've been dominating.Of those victories, two were multi-score blowouts of fellow postseason participants Los Angeles (Chargers) and Denver. The Broncos victory came on the road. There were also narrow escapes over the Raiders and Cardinals, but those more concerning results came before Thanksgiving. Since Turkey Day, Jacksonville is 6-0 with a +121 point differential. Since we can't pretend the Jags' pre-bye games don't count, we must also point out they've lost to the Rams and Seahawks, their most likely opponents for a potential Super Bowl appearance. They did beat the 49ers, and split with the Texans. Imposing on defense and deep on offense, the Jags are one of the most complete teams in the field. If they were anyone other than the Jags, we would probably be hearing a lot more about it.
1. Seattle Seahawks (14-3)Point Differential: 1st
Points Per Game: 3rd
Offensive EPA: 14th
Defensive EPA: 1st
Dropback EPA: 5th
Run Game EPA: 1st
Most of the Seahawks' resume speaks for itself. They have the best point differential. The best defense. One of the highest-scoring offenses. They beat three of the other six NFC playoff participants in the past three weeks.They've beaten AFC darlings Jacksonville and Houston. There's just that little matter of Sam Darnold. Unlike last season, Darnold didn't melt down in the season's biggest games. Well, scratch that. He didn't melt down the entiregame. Darnold rallied after getting off to an awful Week 16 start against the Rams. So Darnold remains the question mark even if he's already provided more answers than he did in 2024. The rest is looking pretty damn great, including on the sideline, where coach Mike Macdonald appears to be the best head-coaching hire since Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan took over the NFC last decade. If your mind's eye can't picture the Seahawks as the NFL's best team heading into the playoffs, that's understandable, but their record, stats, betting odds and arguably even the eye test" all say they are.