2026 NFL offseason preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers will largely run it back, but need more from Baker Mayfield, Todd Bowles

The NFL offseason has begun, and Yahoo Sports is previewing the coming months for all 32 teams, from free agency through the draft and more.

AFC East: Bills | Dolphins | Patriots | Jets
AFC North:Ravens | Bengals | Browns | Steelers
AFC South: Texans | Colts | Jaguars | Titans
AFC West: Broncos | Chiefs | Raiders | Chargers
NFC East:Cowboys | Giants | Eagles | Commanders
NFC North: Bears | Lions | Packers | Vikings
NFC South:Falcons | Panthers | Saints | Buccaneers
NFC West:Cardinals | Rams | 49ers | Seahawks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2025 season record: 8-9 (u 9.5 wins), second in NFC South, missed playoffs, 20th in DVOA

Overview

Tampa Bay went from MVP Baker Mayfield" to missing the playoffs rather quickly. Tampa Bay was never quite as good as its record early in the season - at least by the advanced metrics - but it did appear that the Buccaneers would easily be in control of the NFC South. The Bucs were 6-2 at their Week 9 bye. There was a lot of attention given to Mayfield's dropoff after the bye, but the Bucs went from 13th in EPA per play to only 18th. However, Tampa Bay dropped from sixth in EPA per play on defense before the bye - aided by a strong run defense - to 28th post-bye.

There were clear issues on offense left by the departure of offensive coordinator Liam Coen (the running game and screen game both took steps back), and Mayfield dealt with a shoulder issue for most of the second half of the season.

The Bucs can hope that better health leads to more success in 2026, but after missing the playoffs, there should be some reflection on what went wrong and what needs to be fixed to keep the franchise moving forward. The Bucs have decided to retain head coach Todd Bowles, though they fired offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard, QB coach Thad Lewis and special teams coordinator Thomas McGaughey.

Cap/cuts outlook

Tampa Bay has just under $20 million in effective salary cap space, according to Over The Cap. That's the 14th-highest rate in the league. There aren't many clear cuts that this Buccaneers roster could see to open up cap space. It's more likely money is moved around from restructures. Doing so with the contracts of Antoine Winfield Jr. and Tristan Wirfs would open up to $32 million. How the Buccaneers feel about Mayfield could play into this, too, as the quarterback is entering the final year of his contract. An extension could lower his $39 million cap hit for 2026, but it would put more guaranteed money in future seasons.

Key pending free agents

WR Mike Evans
LB Lavonte David
CB Jamel Dean
TE Cade Otton
Edge Haason Reddick

Evans missed time during the season and snapped his 1,000-yard streak. If the Bucs are going to keep riding with this core for at least another season, signing the veteran for a short-term deal could work. Tampa Bay had only 61 plays with Evans, Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin Jr. on the field at the same time. On those plays, they averaged 6.5 yards per play and an EPA per play that would be the equivalent of the fourth-best offense in the league over a full season.

David isn't the player he used to be in coverage, but more importantly, that drop-off means he can't make up for others at the linebacker spot like he used to. Dean played like an All-Pro at cornerback - he was first in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap - but he missed three games.

Positional needs

Linebacker
Edge
Cornerback

Tampa Bay linebackers were a liability for much of the year. David was 51st among 96 qualified linebackers in yards allowed per coverage snap, while SirVocea Dennis was 77th. The Buccaneers were 11th in pressure rate, but mostly relied on two players to create it. Yaya Diaby and Vita Vea made up nearly half (45.4%) of Tampa Bay's total pressures. While Jamel Dean played at a high level, the rest of the Buccaneers' corners didn't play as well. The Tampa Bay defender closest to Dean in adjusted yards per attempt this season ranked 63rd. On pass plays without pressure, the Buccaneers ranked 24th in success rate.

2026 NFL Draft picks

1st round, pick No. 15
2nd round
3rd round
4th round
5th round
6th round
7th round

Good draft fit

Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

Styles is a smart, fast, strong modern-day linebacker who can blitz, tackle and cover as well. He's only 20 years old, too, despite being a true senior. If the Bucs want an heir apparent to Lavonte David, they should look at him.

What could move the fantasy needle in 2026?

Clean up some clutter

By the end of the season, it felt all too crowded in both the running back and wide receiver rooms for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That can work if you have a play-caller who can maximize everyone. I think it's fair to say the Buccaneers no longer have an offensive coordinator who can manage that burden." As it stands, several names from both rooms could move on in the offseason. Rachaad White is an unrestricted free agent, while Sean Tucker is a restricted free agent at running back. All of Mike Evans, Cade Otton and Sterling Shepard are set to see their contracts expire. Of those players, Evans would be the one I'd consider most likely to return and most difficult to replace. However, he's set to turn 33 this August and is constantly dealing with injuries. Evans may retire. - Matt Harmon

Betting nugget

It all went wrong in the second half of the season for Tampa Bay, which finished the season as the NFL's worst team against the spread at 5-12 ATS. The Bucs ended the season on a nine-game ATS losing streak. - Ben Fawkes