Texans-Steelers NFL wild-card playoff preview: Aaron Rodgers faces the defense few wanted to see in January

Since the midway point of the season, many NFL observers said the Houston Texans were the team no one wanted to face in the playoffs because of their formidable defense. Here we are, with the Pittsburgh Steelers being the first team to challenge that assertion.

Houston makes its third consecutive trip to the postseason and is pursuing its third straight win in the wild-card round. Pittsburgh will try to avoid losing a wild-card playoff game for the third year in a row, looking to Aaron Rodgers to lift the Steelers to the divisional round for the first time since the 2017 season. Rodgers last played in the postseason in 2022, finishing his second-to-last season with the Green Bay Packers.

Previous meeting this season

These two teams did not face each other during the regular season. The last time Houston played Pittsburgh was during the 2023 season (unless you count the 2024 preseason), DeMeco Ryans' first as the Texans' head coach. Kenny Pickett was the Steelers' quarterback and Najee Harris started at running back then.

C.J. Stroud threw for 308 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Nico Collins tallied 7 receptions for 168 yards and two scores in Houston's 30-6 rout at home.

Health update

The Steelers have had a clean injury report throughout the week, with only Jaylen Warren missing practice time due to illness. However, Pittsburgh apparently believes the team's leading rusher will recover in time for Monday night's kickoff.

The Texans had two starters miss practice this week, cornerback Kamari Lassiter and left guard Tytus Howard. Lassiter tied for the team lead with four interceptions and was third with 91 tackles, while Howard started 16 games this season.

The head coaches

Strangely, Ryans might be the more secure coach in this matchup. The Texans are ascendant in his third season as he's built the best defense in the NFL. Losing in the wild-card round might take some shine off that status, but Houston is clearly building a contender. Pittsburgh seemingly avoided a difficult decision by winning its regular-season finale to clinch the AFC North and a playoff berth. Yet if the Steelers lose badly to Houston, Tomlin and the team may mutually decide that it's time for a change.

Key player for the Steelers

Pittsburgh needed a reliable starting quarterback, which is what led the team to sign Rodgers. But making it to the playoffs hasn't been the issue. The Steelers qualified for the postseason in five of the past six seasons. With Rodgers, the hope was that he had one more vintage season left to advance further in the playoffs. But he threw for five total touchdowns while averaging 247 passing yards in the Steelers' final five games. Is he capable of more against a defense that allowed 277 yards per game and has been unbeatable in its past nine games?

Key player for the Texans

Befitting their status as the NFL's top defense, the Texans have standouts among their front seven and secondary. As mentioned above, four players had four interceptions. Defensive end Danielle Hunter led the team with 15 sacks. Yet the most disruptive player is on the opposite end of the line from Hunter, edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. The third-year pro has provided the stellar production Houston anticipated after making him the No. 3 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. The Steelers are surely aware that Anderson has 20 tackles for loss and 23 quarterback hits this season. Rodgers could see a lot of him on Monday night.

Prediction

Pittsburgh's reward for winning the AFC North and making the playoffs is meeting the team nobody supposedly wanted to play. (Whether the Texans have the NFL's most ferocious defense is a discussion that should include the Denver Broncos.) Additionally, the Steelers backed into the postseason, advancing thanks to Ravens kicker Tyler Loop shanking a 44-yard field-goal attempt wide right as time expired.

Coach Tomlin was locked in for the final play. pic.twitter.com/FCa0HZ2LFy

- NFL (@NFL) January 5, 2026

Houston's defense may also be acclaimed because it compensates for a subpar offense. The Texans ranked No. 18 in total offense and averaged 24 points per game. Quarterback C.J. Stroud threw for 200 yards or fewer in three of his past five games. That might give the Steelers a chance. But Houston's strength is too much to overcome.

Texans 20, Steelers 13