Bills move from 1.5-point favorites to 1.5-point underdogs at Jaguars
As of Thursday, when Simms and I taped the weekly picks podcast, the Bills were 1.5-point favorites for Sunday's wild-card game at Jacksonville.
The line has moved by three points on DraftKings, with the Jaguars currently 1.5-point favorites.
The shift acknowledges the fact that the Jaguars are the more accomplished team this season, with the better record and higher seed. And it suggests that the sharps are showing up and betting for the Jaguars, ignoring the whole "smaller market" thing and acknowledging that the Jags are a legitimate contender.
They're also at home, which is significant given the Bills' experience with road playoff games. The Bills have lost eight straight postseason games away from Orchard Park. Their last playoff road win came in the 1992 AFC Championship.
Also, Bills quarterback Josh Allen is 0-4 on the road in the postseason. Three losses have come at Kansas City. The other happened at Houston, in a 2019 wild-card game.
On Sunday, Allen gets a chance to win a playoff game on the road in a postseason field that doesn't include Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, or Lamar Jackson. Previously, the betting public narrowly believed Buffalo could pull it off. As of Saturday night, the sentiment has flipped.