Broncos vs. Bills NFL playoffs wild-card betting odds, picks and predictions: Best bets for Broncos-Bills

The AFC West champion Denver Broncos will host the Buffalo Bills this Saturday, as Buffalo advanced with a hard-fought 27-24 win at the Jacksonville Jaguars in the wild-card round while the Broncos sat and watched at home as the conference's top seed.

Josh Allen, who was already nursing an injured foot, suffered a few more injuries in the game, while the Bills also lost wide receivers Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis for the season during the contest.

Will Allen & Co. take the next step en route to that elusive Super Bowl trip? Or will Sean Payton, Bo Nix and Denver's terrific defense move them one step closer to their first Super Bowl appearance since 2016?

Ben Fawkes gathers quotes from oddsmakers for all the games and our team of NFL handicappers provides their favorite wagers on the game.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

No. 6 Buffalo Bills at No. 1 Denver Broncos (-1.5, 46)

What oddsmakers are saying

"We opened this game Bills -2, total of 46.5. We're at pick-em right now, certain places have Denver -1. It certainly has been early Denver money. I don't think Buffalo is quite at the San Francisco level of injuries, but they're getting up there. Early money grabbed the +2, +1.5 on Denver. Total has ticked down to 46 here, down half a point. At pick-em, you're going to get public Bills money" - Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata

"We opened Bills -1.5, now at Bills -1 (EVEN). My power ratings made this Broncos -0.5. In this type of game, the Bills have the playoff experience, which we've seen make a difference. In terms of biggest one-way sided games, it's going to be this one. Bills getting majority of the action" - Joey Feazel, head of NFL trading at Caesars Sportsbook

Best bets

Matt Jacob: A week ago, the 2025 NFL rushing champion (Buffalo's James Cook) faced the league's No. 1 rushing defense (Jacksonville). Suffice to say, it wasn't a fair fight: The Jaguars held Cook to 46 yards on 15 carries (a paltry 3.1 yards per tote).

Thanks to Josh Allen's heroics, the Bills escaped Jacksonville with a victory and now head back on the road, this time traveling to Denver. And greeting Cook will be the NFL's No. 2-ranked rushing defense.

The Broncos surrendered 91.1 rushing yards per game (only 4.5 more yards than Jacksonville) and held opponents to just 3.87 yards per carry (tied for second-best in the league).

Over the last six regular-season games, only three players tallied more than 50 rushing yards against Denver: Chargers backup quarterback Trey Lance (69 yards in Week 18); Packers running back Josh Jacobs (73 yards in Week 15); and Commanders backup quarterback Marcus Mariota (55 yards in Week 13)

Take out Lance and Mariota, and only five running backs have eclipsed 50 rushing yards against the Broncos since Week 4 (14 games): Jacobs; rookies Ashton Jeanty and Cam Skatteboo (60 yards each); and Karim Hunt and Breece Hall (59 yards each).

The only two players to top 75 rushing yards versus Denver all season? The Colts' Jonathan Taylor (165 yards in Week 2) and the Chargers' J.K. Dobbins (83 yards in Week 3).

Bet: James Cook under 75.5 rushing yards (-115)

Jacob: In his final regular season game against the Chargers, Denver quarterback Bo Nix put the ball in the air a season-low 23 times. It made perfect sense, as the Chargers started a slew of backups on both sides of the ball and the Broncos cruised to a 19-3 victory.

Why put the franchise quarterback at unnecessary risk in a one-sided game, right?

Of course, Denver coach Sean Payton would love nothing more than to see the same scenario play out Saturday against Buffalo, with his troops jumping out to a big lead and the offense leaning heavily on the run game. It's just not likely to happen.

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Because they've struggled to defend the run, I expect the Bills to load the box and force Nix to beat them with his arm. In turn, I expect Payton to allow his young quarterback to fire away - because he did it all season.

To wit: Prior to the finale against the Chargers, Nix threw at least 34 passes in six straight games (and averaged 39.8 per contest). And going back to a Week 4 home rout of Cincinnati, Nix cleared 33 pass attempts in 10 of his final 14 games.

With ideal weather expected in Denver, Nix should air it out at least 34 times in what figures to be a close game.

Bet: Bo Nix over 33.5 pass attempts (+100)

Russell: While the Broncos offense got better after their Week 12 bye, Denver's defense actually regressed, with a stretch of games in which they were 21st by EPA/Play (adjusted for turnovers and garbage time). What that means for the Bills is that Josh Allen should be able to move the ball through the air.

However, Allen's running low on deep threats, and tempting fate against the Broncos' pass rush seems like a bad idea. Look for an array of safe, underneath throws to his tailbacks, tight ends and Khalil Shakir. With the market tilting towards favoring the Broncos, at the very least a close game-script could enhance Allen's chances for a high-volume afternoon - and a trailing game-state would secure it.

Bet: Josh Allen over 19.5 pass completions