After Black Monday: What happened to preseason “hot seat” coaches?

Brian Daboll and Nick Sirianni soon to coach on one team? (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)

Black Monday has come and gone, and nine teams are looking for new head coaches. But how do those moves compare to the preseason hot seat" candidates?

In July last year, Sportsbetting.ag published the odds on which NFL head coach would be fired first in 2025. That dubious distinction ended up going to Brian Callahan in Tennessee who took the honors in 2025.

At the time the odds were published, Brian Daboll of the Giants was listed as the most likely head coach to be fired first, but ended up being second. His firing may end up biting the Giants twice every year as he's interviewing for the Eagles OC position.

So how did the rest of those preseason odds turn out this year? Here's an overview of what happened to each head coach since the early odds were released.

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Rank	Coach	Team	Odds	Status
1	Brian Daboll	NYG	4/1	Second coach fired. A 2-8 start and several fourth-quarter collapses sealed the deal.
2	Mike McDaniel	MIA	5/1	Maybe three talented players on that roster, not enough to win games with.
3	Shane Steichen	IND	6/1	Surprise of the year: Daniel Jones can play football. But without Jones, Colts went 0-7.
4	Kevin Stefanski	CLE	13/2	Constant QB drama proved too much for the two-time coach of the year.
5	Jonathan Gannon	ARI	7/1	Warning for Dallas: Couldn't right the defense, finished bottom 10 in defensive EPA/play in all his three seasons.
6	Zac Taylor	CIN	8/1	All other teams in the division are all looking for new head coaches, 6-11 Bengals soldier on.
7	Dave Canales	CAR	9/1	Surprise playoff participant.
8	Brian Callahan	TEN	10/1	Ended up being the first coach fired. 1-5 season start and 4-19 overall record.
9	Kyle Shanahan	SF	16/1	One of most injured teams storms to 12-5 record. COTY candidate.
10	Todd Bowles	TB	22/1	Close one for Bowles, who missed the postseason for the first time in four years.
11	Matt LaFleur	GB	25/1	Season petered out with four consecutive losses as another defense found out what life without Micah looks like.
11	Mike Tomlin	PIT	25/1	Stepped down from his role after going 0-6 in the playoffs over the last nine seasons.
11	Sean McVay	LA	25/1	Secure as he'll ever be in LA.
14	Kevin O'Connell	MIN	40/1	May not be able to afford another season that ends without a playoff berth.
14	Raheem Morris	ATL	40/1	Two successive 8-9 seasons spelled the end for Morris.
16	Demeco Ryans	HOU	50/1	Three winning seasons, three playoff appearances, three stops in the divisional round.
16	Sean McDermott	BUF	50/1	9 seasons in, 8 of which with Josh Allen, but no Super Bowl anywhere.
18	John Harbaugh	BAL	66/1	Surprise ending in Baltimore.
18	Mike Macdonald	SEA	66/1	Can he get DeMarcus Lawrence a Super Bowl ring?
18	Sean Payton	DEN	66/1	Payton looks to have the Broncos on track for the next few years.
21	Ben Johnson	CHI	100/1	The Cowboys didn't even want to interview him and he lapped them in one year.
21	Brian Schottenheimer	DAL	100/1	No.2 offense by yards, No. 30 defense by yards allowed. Not the complementary football we were promised.
21	Dan Campbell	DET	100/1	Losing two coordinators in one year (Ben Johnson, Aaron Glenn) proved too much.
21	Dan Quinn	WAS	100/1	Injuries derailed 2025, but expecattions are high for 2026. Too high?
21	Jim Harbaugh	LAC	100/1	Can the Chargers do more than just lose in the wild card round?
26	Aaron Glenn	NYJ	150/1	Lots of optimism heading into the season, followed by a rude awakening. Now the No. 2 pick awaits.
26	Kellen Moore	NO	150/1	Tough job, but our boy did good, finishing 4-1 after a 2-10 start.
26	Liam Coen	JAX	150/1	Forced a change at GM when he was hired, bold move that paid out handsomely.
29	Pete Carroll	LV	200/1	One-and-done in Vegas, but at least he gifted them the No. 1 pick in the draft.
30	Mike Vrabel	NE	250/1	Took the Pats from 4-13 to 14-3. History in NE as a player makes him safe for years to come.
31	Andy Reid	KC	500/1	What happens if Mahomes doesn't came back in time for 2026?
31	Nick Sirianni	PHI	500/1	Nobody seems happy in Philly, and strangely, it feels like Sirianni is doing all he can to keep it that way.

From this list, it looks like the preseason odds were a good early indicator of what would eventually happen during and after the season. The obvious surprise on this list is Pete Carrol, who went to Vegas with high expectations but managed to win only three games.

The Cowboys stumbled to their second seven-win season in two years. It's hard to imagine that the Cowboys would accept another such disappointing season, regardless of the circumstances. Brian Schottenheimer probably needs to reach the playoffs next season to be absolutely safe. But would a winning record also be enough? Or does it have to be a playoff win, or perhaps two? Or is he safe regardless of what happens?

What do you think the Cowboys need to achieve in 2026 for Shotty to get a third year in Dallas?