Regarding 2026 Colts, one NFL exec makes somewhat surprising prediction

According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, one NFL executive made a surprising prediction regarding the 2026 Indianapolis Colts. Namely, that the Colts will win the division for the first time since 2014:

But they showed a proof of concept with what they had through 10 games," an AFC executive said via Fowler. They had Daniel Jones playing well. The roster has talent. They are closer than people might think."

Projected as a routine bottom feeder in NFL power rankings entering this past season, the Colts shockingly became one of the hottest teams football, once sitting at 8-2 atop the AFC, and featuring a historically elite league offense-where the fresh pairing of head coach Shane Steichen and newly signed starting quarterback Daniel Jones was paying off major dividends for Indianapolis.

Unfortunately, thereafter, starting quarterback Jones suffered a fractured fibula, limiting his mobility and the dynamic Colts offensive attack, before ultimately suffering a season-ending torn Achilles in Week 14 at Jacksonville-presumably because of physical overcompensation for the earlier lower leg injury.

The Colts would end up losing 7 straight games to close out the season, as in Jones' 4-game absence, the team desperately turned to 44-year-old, unretired veteran quarterback Philip Rivers, and then rookie Riley Leonard for the regular season finale, once the team was already eliminated from playoff contention.

It wasn't just Jones though, as particularly on defense, the Colts sustained key injuries to the unit's three best players: DeForest Buckner, Sauce Gardner, and Charvarius Ward. On offense, the team also lost starting veteran offensive tackle Braden Smith and even left tackle Bernhard Raimann for a short stint to close out 2025.

In theory, if the Colts can re-sign Jones, who's a pending 2026 NFL free agent, and get some of those other returning standout players healthy, they could pick up right where they left off before injuries completely derailed what once was one of the best starts to an Indianapolis regular season in years.

That being said, Jones is coming off a torn Achilles, which can be a potentially career-altering injury, especially for a 28-year-old quarterback who relies a lot on his mobility, and particularly in head coach Shane Steichen's offense and the versatile ground game with star workhorse Jonathan Taylor.

Having suffered the injury later in the season, it's a fair question of whether Jones will be ready for the regular season opener, let alone training camp. Even if he does return in time to be ready for 2026, what physical condition will he realistically be in? His other NFL quarterback colleagues have not recently fared all that well coming back from similar injuries to-date. Will Jones be the exception? Will it take longer than a year to recover?

Some of those other veteran players hoping to potentially return are defensive tackle DeForest Buckner (neck), cornerback Charvarius Ward (three concussions last year), and pending free agent offensive tackle Braden Smith (concussion/neck). All of whom are question marks to make a full recovery as well.

Despite a stalwart defense under head coach DeMeco Ryans, the Texans appear rather one-dimensional with starting quarterback C.J. Stroud's continued playoff struggles at the moment. However, the Jacksonville Jaguars may be the toast of the AFC South until proven otherwise-as the reigning AFC South Champions, and a rival just as complete and talented as Indianapolis when at full strength and truly going right.

The Jaguars have won 5 of the 6 matchups against the Colts under Steichen and remain the divisional rival to beat within the AFC South. They're the best team within the division until proven otherwise.

It's also not how you start, it's how you finish. In contrast to the Colts disastrous losing skid, the Jaguars and Texans won 8 and 9 games in a row to close out the 2025 campaign respectively. This current Colts nucleus has routinely suffered late season collapses, and they'll have to finally overcome that and complete the job in 2026.