Super Bowl 2026 Referees: How Shawn Smith’s Crew Could Shape Seahawks vs. Patriots

Super Bowl bettors have spent weeks breaking down the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots, searching for any edge before kickoff on February 8.

But before you go digging through the Super Bowl odds, understand there's a third variable worth examining: the officiating crew.

Who is refereeing the Super Bowl?

This year's Super Bowl at Levi's Stadium will be overseen by eight-year NFL referee Shawn Smith, who is making his first Super Bowl appearance as crew chief. While referee trends should never be the primary driver of a bet, they can provide context, especially when certain penalties carry massive yardage swings.

Shawn Smith betting trends

During the 2025 season, Smith's games leaned slightly toward favorites, who went 11-6 straight up and 9-8 against the spread. In two games officiated by Smith, the New England Patriots finished 2-0 SU and ATS.

While these trends are interesting, they're also overblown in terms of importance. What bettors should really weigh is what type of penalties Smith's crew calls most often and how likely the Super Bowl contenders are to get flagged for them.

Offensive penalties: A crew that lets games breathe

As far as Smith & Co. go, they tend to let the action play out and averaged 12.3 penalties per game this season. That sits just short of the league average of 12.5 penalties.

This was more prominent in their one playoff game (when refs tend to let more go), with only seven flags in their Divisional Round appearance. Fewer penalties mean fewer stoppages and additional yards, at least when those penalties are on the defense.

Most common offensive penalties

• False starts: 36
• Offensive holding: 29

While these are the most common penalties league-wide, Smith's crew ranked:

• Lowest in offensive holding per game (1.71)
• Sixth-lowest in false starts per game (2.12)

How the offenses stack up

Seahawks:

• False starts: 18 (bottom third)
• Offensive holding: 21 (league average)

Patriots:

• False starts: 21
• Offensive holding: 21

Both offenses are relatively disciplined here, which limits the likelihood of drive-killing flags.

Defensive pass interference

The third most common penalty flag for Shawn Smith's crew is defensive pass interference - the most combustible call in football officiating.

On the season, this group has thrown the flag 23 times for DPI, equating to 241 penalty yards over 17 games, which is tied for the third-highest average of DPI calls per game among all officiating crews.

Most common defensive penalties

• Defensive pass interference: 23
• DPI yards: 241

Smith's crew ranks:

• Tied for third-highest DPI calls per game among NFL crews

How the defenses stack up

Patriots:

• DPI committed: 12 (20 games)

Seahawks:

• DPI committed: 6 (19 games) - third-fewest in the NFL

How the offenses benefit

Seahawks:

• DPI drawn: 12 (19 games) - seventh-most in the NFL

Patriots:

• DPI drawn: 10

Furthermore, this crew most recently called the Divisional Round matchup between the Patriots and the Houston Texans, which saw only seven total penalties. Three of those were for defensive pass interference, with two on the Patriots - both coming against corner Carlton Davis III.

Davis leads the NFL in defensive pass interference penalties with 10 total in 20 games, which has gift-wrapped 8.35 yards to opponents per outing.

With top corner Christian Gonzalez assigned to the Seattle Seahawks WR1 Jaxson Smith-Njigba and fellow CB Marcus Jones likely lining up on slot WR Cooper Kupp, Davis will be assigned to the speedy Rashid Shaheed in New England's man-heavy coverage schemes. Shaheed is a dangerous downfield threat, especially in one-on-one situations.

Lean toward the Under in Super Bowl 60

Smith and his crew aren't trigger-happy when it comes to throwing the flags, which means fewer stoppages in time and any bonus yards awarded. This would benefit those leaning toward the Under.

That said, we may not escape Super Sunday without a controversial defensive pass interference call.

This referee group has called DPI at the third-highest rate in the NFL, and the Patriots have the most frequent perpetrator of this penalty in CB Carlton Davis III.

I was already high on Seattle WR Rashid Shaheed heading into Super Bowl LX, given his deep threat and the fact Seahawks QB Sam Darnold is much more comfortable throwing against one-on-one coverage (No. 3 completion rate vs. man).

If the referees are going to have an impact on the outcome of this game, it will be dinging Davis for a DPI for a massive gain for Seattle.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here