Most Aggressive Coaches of 2025

Aggressiveness Index is a stat we introduced at our old site that measures how often NFL head coaches go for it on fourth down. We compare this not to when coachesshouldgo for it based on EPA modeling but rather when coaches actuallydogo for it based on NFL history. Our current AgIx numbers (we're not going to be able to call it AI anymore, I don't think!) use a baseline built from coach decisions since 2018, since that was the year that going for it on fourth down jumped leaguewide. However, we may have to change that baseline again in the future. This year, after a few years of stability, go-for-it rates around the league jumped again to 17% higher than the 2018-2024 baseline in AgIx-qualifying situations. (I say qualifying" because Aggressiveness Index does not count certain fourth-down opportunities based on the score and the game time.) As a result, nearly every coach in 2025 comes out with an Aggressiveness Index above 1.0, which is supposed to represent average. Once again this year, the most aggressive coach was Dan Campbell of the Detroit Lions, who goes for it even sometimes when the models say to kick. Campbell had an AgIx of 2.02, which was the highest among head coaches who served for the full season. (Mike Kafka, who coached the Giants over the final seven games, had an AgIx of 2.47.) Campbell went for it on all nine qualifying fourth-and-1 opportunities and seven of 11 qualifying fourth-and-2 opportunities. Campbell's protege Ben Johnson was in second place with an Aggressiveness Index of 1.78. He went for it a little less often than some of the other top coaches but was also in situations where we expect coaches to go for it less often. Sean McDermott, now let go by the Buffalo Bills, was third with an Aggressiveness Index of 1.56. He went for it the most often in qualifying fourth-down situations, 29.0% of the time, giving him 27 attempts when only 17.3 were expected. Some Bills fans have criticized McDermott for being conservative in the playoffs but he has always been among the most aggressive coaches on fourth downs in the regular season. McDermott stood out by going for six of eight qualifying fourth-and-2s. A couple of more surprising names near the top of our list: Brian Schottenheimer of the Cowboys had 1.48 AgIx to finish fourth (skipping Kafka) in his first year as a head coach, remarkable since his father was renowned as one of the most conservative head coaches in the NFL for many years. Andy Reid was sixth, another example of a rare late-in-career transitition from being more conservative to being more aggressive on fourth downs. Usually, older head coaches go the other direction. Reid went for it on 17 qualifying fourth-and-1s to lead the league. The usual trend of older coaches getting more conservative also makes Pete Carroll finishing 15th with 1.27 AgIx in his only Las Vegas season a bit of a shock. Carroll was always among the most conservative coaches when he was in Seattle. Mike Vrabel and Sean McVay stand out for being willing to go for it more often in No Man's Land," which we see as fourth downs between the 34- and 39-yard lines. (We may have to move this back now that 50-yard field goals are so common!) Vrabel went for 6-of-8 in this situation, while McVay went for 5-of-8. A surprising name near the bottom is Kevin Stefanski, late of the Cleveland Browns, now of the Atlanta Falcons. While the rest of the league became more aggressive this season, Stefanski stayed in place with an AgIx of 1.06 that is similar to the 1.10 he had in 2024, which in turn was lower than what he put up earlier in his career. Mike Macdonald was disappointingly near the bottom given that he learned at the feet of John Harbaugh, but then again Harbaugh doesn't rank as high as he did a couple of years ago either. Maybe Macdonald just trusted his defense more, given that it was the best in the league. DeMeco Ryans is also near the bottom. Aggressiveness Index is computed by Jim Armstrong.