2027 NFL Draft Odds: Arch Manning Leads as QB Race Takes Shape
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The race to become the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft is already taking shape, with Texas quarterback Arch Manning the favorite in theNFL Draft odds.
Manning leads the market at 32%, but Oregon quarterback Dante Moore and Notre Dame's CJ Carr have emerged as his closest challengers following the opening week of the college football season.
With an entire season still ahead and NFL scouts getting their first meaningful film on this year's top prospects, expect plenty of movement.
2027 NFL Draft odds to be No. 1 pick| Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Arch Manning (QB) | 32% |
 Dante Moore (QB) | 18% |
 CJ Carr (QB) | 16% |
 Jeremiah Smith (WR) | 9% |
 LaNorris Sellers (QB) | 7% |
 Darian Mensah (QB) | 6% |
| Dylan Stewart (DE) | 5% |
 Drew Mestemaker (QB) | 4% |
| Julian Sayin (QB) | 4% |
 Trinidad Chambliss (QB) | 3% |
Percentages courtesy ofKalshi.For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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2027 NFL Draft favorites to go No. 1Arch Manning (QB, Texas)Arch Manning enters the season with the strongest combination of name recognition, physical tools, and market momentum. His first full year as Texas' starter was uneven early, but he became more composed as the season progressed and finished by playing his best football. A cleaner, more complete campaign could make him the clear face of the 2027 class.
Dante Moore (QB, Oregon)Dante Moore has the most polished resume of the three after producing at a high level in Oregon's offense. He showed accuracy, command, and the ability to create explosive plays without consistently putting the ball in danger. He already looks like a legitimate first-round quarterback, and another strong season could push him from contender to favorite.
CJ Carr (QB, Notre Dame)CJ Carr built his case through efficiency and decision-making rather than overwhelming volume. He protected the football, kept Notre Dame's offense on schedule, and showed enough downfield ability to suggest there is more upside coming. A bigger statistical leap would strengthen his profile, but the foundation of an NFL-caliber starter is already there.
Jeremiah Smith (WR, Ohio State)Jeremiah Smith is the biggest non-quarterback threat to go No. 1 after establishing himself as one of college football's most dominant playmakers. His combination of size, explosiveness, and ability to win at every level gives him the profile of a franchise-changing receiver. Quarterbacks will always have the positional advantage at the top of the draft, but Smith is talented enough to make that conversation much more difficult for NFL teams.
Popular NFL betting toolsNFL Draft betting trendsQuarterback is the most important position on the football field, and following Las Vegas taking Fernando Mendoza at No. 1 in 2026, 22 of the last 29 first-overall picks have been QBs.
All but two of the last 18 NFL Drafts have seen an offensive lineman get picked in the Top 10, with 2025 being no different, as Will Campbell went fifth, Armand Membou went seventh, and Kelvin Banks Jr. was picked ninth.
List of first overall NFL Draft picks| Year | Player | Position |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 |  Fernando Mendoza | QB |
| 2025 |  Cam Ward | QB |
| 2024 |  Caleb Williams | QB |
| 2023 |  Bryce Young | QB |
| 2022 |  Travon Walker | DE |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence | QB |
| 2020 |  Joe Burrow | QB |
| 2019 |  Kyler Murray | QB |
| 2018 |  Baker Mayfield | QB |
| 2017 | Myles Garrett | DE |
| 2016 |  Jared Goff | QB |
Sportsbooks will post odds for the player to go first overall in the draft as soon as the previous year's draft is over. Once the college football season begins in September, these odds could change weekly depending on how players are performing as well as the evaluations of trusted draftniks such as Mel Kiper Jr.
In addition, this NFL futuresbet may also take into account the team needs of the worst team(s) in the NFL.
After the NCAA football season is over, NFL Draft odds will solidify after key events such as the underclassmen declaration deadline, the NFL Scouting Combine, and pro days. In the weeks leading up to the draft, sportsbooks will offer more NFL Draft prop bets.
Understanding NFL Draft oddsThe odds of going first overall in the NFL Draft will typically look like this:
- Arch Manning +250
This means that if you placed a $100 bet on Manning, you would win $250 if the Longhorns QB goes first overall in 2027. When you get closer to the draft, and there is a consensus on who will go first overall, you might see a player with a minus sign (-) ahead of his odds, like this:
- Dante Moore -550
This means you'd have to bet $550 to win $100 on Moore being drafted first overall.
Above we have posted the American odds for the 2027 NFL Draft. However, these are easy to convert to decimal odds or fractional odds with our odds converter tool.
Get more NFL Draft betting tips and strategies with our draft betting guide.
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