The US and Israel gravely underestimated Iran’s response – here in the UAE, we are seeing the consequences | Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi

My family is in Tehran; I am in Abu Dhabi. Across the region, ordinary people are paying the price for these attacks

Since Saturday, my mind has been torn between the place I live, Abu Dhabi, and Tehran, which has been the focus of my work and research for more than 15 years, and where I still have family. When I saw that Israel and the US had attacked Iran, I started worrying for family, thinking about potential consequences. But I barely had time to consider that before Donald Trump announced that this was about regime change. At that moment, I knew this was going to be big - worse than last June - and that it would lead into a regional schism. Predictably, Iran's response started shortly after: first against Israel, then against states across the Gulf region, including the United Arab Emirates. It all followed the worst-case escalation scenarios we had been outlining since June, and especially since January, when - in the midst of protests - Donald Trump said help" was on its way.

I kept on trying to reach family when the internet there was working, which is, at best, for a few minutes a day. Each conversation is short, practical: are you OK? Is your area affected?

Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi is an associate fellow at the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa programme