Ranking the 10 most foolish NFL draft decision of the last 10 years

"Everybody plays the fool."

With the NFL draft just three weeks away, that adage should come as a source of comfort to general managers. Even the shrewdest decision-makers are bound to make a personnel decision that will produce a good deal of embarrassment down the road.

Second-guessing has helped fuel the draft industrial complex, with fans eager to affix the dreaded bust label to picks that don't pan out. But sometimes a good deal of hindsight isn't necessary to question a team's path. And while certain decisions reach unique levels of infamy over time, there have been picks that appeared egregious right away and later proved to be even more foolhardy.

In honor of April Fools Day, here's a look at the 10 most foolish NFL draft decisions of the last 10 years, based on which moves appeared off base at the time:

10. Buccaneers pick K Roberto Aguayo in second round, 2016

The 10-year cutoff gives us a perfect opening to address one of the more unfathomable moves by modern standards. Early kicker picks have seldom ended well, but no choice ended up as catastrophic as the Buccaneers' grabbing Aguayo at No. 59 overall.

General manager Jason Licht traded away third- and fourth-round selections to move up for the strong-legged two-time All-American, figuring the strong-legged two-time All-American would be a fixture for years to come. Instead, Aguayo converted just 22 of 31 field goals as a rookie and was waived the following August when his struggles continued in training camp and preseason. Licht later called it a "bold move" that "didn't work it out." Aguayo bounced around four other teams' practice squads but never attempted another kick in the NFL after his disastrous debut season.

9. Commanders pick CB Emmanuel Forbes Jr. over Christian Gonzalez, 2023

Ron Rivera repeatedly knocked himself off course in his stewardship of the tumultuous Commanders, as the coach's dubious draft decisions kept his roster mired in mediocrity. His most costly gaffe, however, came in his final class.

Washington nabbed Forbes at No. 16, with Rivera calling him "a takeaway machine" and general manager Martin Mayhew labeling him "the total package." Rivera's assessment was reasonable after the Mississippi State product set the Football Bowl Subdivision record for career pick-sixes with six. But Mayhew missed the mark in assuming the 6-1, 166-pounder possessed sufficient strength to jostle with receivers and be a reliable tackler. Forbes would be benched midway through his rookie season, which featured just one interception and A.J. Brown bullying him for 197 yards and two touchdowns in one game.

What really made the selection so regrettable, however, is that the team passed up Gonzalez, who was rated more highly by most draft experts and was far more deserving of the "total package" title. Taken by the Patriots one slot later, Gonzalez has emerged as one of the NFL's most reliable cover men, earning a Pro Bowl nod this past season. Waived late in his second season with the Commanders after the franchise's regime change, Forbes enjoyed a resurgence last season with the Los Angeles Rams, but he's still a far way off from making good on his draft status. Washington, meanwhile, remains in the wilderness at cornerback.

8. Raiders pick DE Clelin Ferrell at No. 4, 2019

In the last 10 years, no one cut against the grain quite as often as former Raiders general manager Mike Mayock. His first pick proved to be a harbinger for a three-year run of surprises that almost exclusively turned into disappointments.

The Silver and Black were due to reimagine their pass rush after trading Khalil Mack the previous fall. But Mayock threw the top of the order for a loop when he went with Ferrell, an accomplished edge rusher at Clemson who nevertheless didn't seem to measure up to his more athletic counterparts. Among the more highly rated alternatives that Mayock passed up were Josh Hines-Allen (61 career NFL sacks), Brian Burns (71 career sacks) and Montez Sweat (57 career sacks). Ferrell, who has just 21 sacks in seven seasons, was relegated to a backup role by his third season and was the lone top-five pick in his class not to have his fifth-year option picked up. He's earned opportunities elsewhere as a rotational piece, but his output can't compare to that of his more prolific peers.

7. Raiders pick OL Alex Leatherwood at No. 17, 2021

Herd mentality certainly wasn't in effect when the Raiders selected Leatherwood. Despite being a consensus All-American and Outland Trophy winner, the former Alabama standout wasn't widely seen as a first-round pick, with many questioning his ability to stick at right tackle.

Maybe groupthink was the way to go. Leatherwood's woes at right tackle were so pervasive that he was moved inside after just four games, and he finished his rookie year having surrendered a league-high 65 pressures, according to Pro Football Focus. The Raiders' new regime tried moving Leatherwood back to right tackle before waiving him outright at the roster cutdown deadline. Las Vegas' line issues would continue to fester for years, while Christian Darrisaw - taken six picks after Leatherwood - would go on to become one of the league's most effective pass protectors with the Minnesota Vikings.

6. Raiders pick WR Henry Ruggs at No. 12 overall and CB Damon Arnette at No. 19, 2020

Neither of Mayock's pair of first-round picks in his second draft was lacking for talent, but each would go on to tarnish the organization.

Fresh off the Antonio Brown debacle, the Raiders struck out for another speedy receiver in Ruggs. Few others anticipated the Alabama product to be the first pass catcher taken in a loaded class at the position, as former teammate Jerry Jeudy (who went No. 15 to the Denver Broncos) and CeeDee Lamb (No. 17 to the Dallas Cowboys) were more highly regarded by most. But in November 2021, the Raiders released Ruggs on the same day as his drunken driving crash that killed a 23-year-old woman and her dog, for which he was sentenced to three to 10 years in prison. Mere days after that, Las Vegas also parted ways with Arnette after a video emerged of the cornerback making death threats to an unspecified person while brandishing multiple guns.

Mayock later acknowledged that there had been "significant concern" through the pre-draft process regarding the former Ohio State cornerback's off-field behavior. The general manager added that "the team did more research on Arnette" than any other draft prospect during his tenure, which led him to believe taking the cornerback was an "acceptable risk." In the end, however, Las Vegas was left to face the fallout from its own hubris.

5. Saints trade up for DE Marcus Davenport, 2018

The Saints' 2017 draft class eventually emerged as one of the most impressive single-year hauls by any team. But New Orleans followed that stellar effort up with a blunder that's extremely difficult to justify.

After the first of several consecutive playoff heartbreaks, Sean Payton and Co. got aggressive to move up to No. 14 overall and nab Davenport, who offered imposing speed off the edge to go along with a 6-6, 264-pound frame. Still, the price tag was astonishing, as New Orleans parted with its 2019 first-rounder in the deal. Surrendering such an important asset for a non-quarterback is always a dicey proposition, but the move was especially outlandish for a franchise that needed young, cost-controlled premium talent to offset its salary-cap gymnastics. Davenport also seemed like a particularly odd target for a win-now group, given that he was widely viewed as a raw prospect who wasn't accustomed to facing NFL-caliber blockers at Texas-San Antonio and required a good deal of work to become a consistent force as a pass rusher. Waylaid by injuries at multiple points in his career, Davenport never fully blossomed into a consistent force.

4. Jets pick QB Christian Hackenberg in second round, 2016

Perhaps the stakes here seem like small potatoes given the draft capital involved. The Hackenberg whiff, however, served as an encapsulation of everything that went wrong in the Mike Maccagnan era for the Jets.

After debuting as the Big Ten Freshman of the Year in 2013, Hackenberg repeatedly unraveled in his final two years at Penn State, with his haphazard footwork and erratic ball placement derailing the offense. Nevertheless, Maccagnan took a flier on the 6-4, 223-pound passer. Perhaps he was bewitched by the signal-caller's strong arm and ideal frame. Hackenberg, however, couldn't even get a handle on the basics of the position, and he never played a down before being traded to the Raiders two years later for a conditional seventh-round pick. He landed in the Alliance of American Football, where he continued to flounder before trying his hand at baseball and later coaching.

Though he might not be remembered as the definitive quarterback bust of his era, Hackenberg became the most prominent example of the Jets incinerating their Day 2 draft picks. That trend would take a heavy toll when Gang Green was unable to equip Sam Darnold with reasonable support - a running theme for a franchise that still hasn't been able to find a long-term solution behind center.

3. 49ers trade three first-round picks to move up for QB Trey Lance, 2021

No harm, no foul? Maybe that's the takeaway for some after Brock Purdy's ascent helped alleviate the sting from one of the most ill-fated quarterback gambits in draft history. But San Francisco can't be given a full pass here.

On its face, going all in on a quarterback who had just 17 starts at the Football Championship Subdivision level should prompt some serious skepticism. And the move looked even more dubious given the package of picks the 49ers parted with. Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch were given a good deal of grace here for attempting to raise the offense's ceiling with a more dynamic presence behind center, but the coach later acknowledged that the move was a mistake prompted by the franchise's sense of urgency. Injuries and other mitigating factors hampered Lance's development and led the 49ers to pull the ripcord early, trading the dual-threat signal-caller to the Cowboys after just two years for a fourth-round pick. The opportunity cost was astronomical, as the 49ers missed out on a bevy of All-Pro talent in 2021 and the chance to add several more key contributors the following two years.

2. Eagles pick WR Jalen Reagor over Justin Jefferson, 2020

Outside of quarterbacks, perhaps no draft prospect in recent years has been inextricably linked to another player as Reagor has been to Jefferson. The latter had been repeatedly linked to the receiver-needy Eagles in the lead-up to the draft, and the former LSU standout later acknowledged he thought he was headed to Philadelphia once the team was put on the clock at No. 21.

Instead, Howie Roseman went with Reagor, a speed merchant from TCU with a far more uneven track record than the prolific Jefferson. Minnesota Vikings coach Mike Zimmer and general manager Rick Spielman reacted gleefully to the selection in a now-famous draft-day video. The duo scooped up Jefferson with the following pick, and the four-time Pro Bowl selection has repeatedly set records for the most productive start to a receiver's career.

Reagor, meanwhile, lasted just two years before the Eagles cut bait and traded him to the Vikings. Roseman eventually set things straight at receiver by drafting DeVonta Smith and trading for A.J. Brown, but he later said the misstep forced him to place a greater emphasis on value than fit. Given the Eagles' sterling draft track record since then and the Super Bowl title that followed not long after, the lesson at least paid significant dividends.

1. Titans pick OT Isaiah Wilson at No. 29 overall, 2020

NFL teams typically go to painstaking lengths during the pre-draft process to ensure they have as complete a picture as possible on hundreds of prospects. A rare instance of that system breaking down led to one of the most bizarre careers in the league's recent history.

Tennessee went out on a limb when it took Wilson in the first round, with many seeing the former Georgia blocker as a significant project. But his acclimation to the pro ranks was far rockier than anyone could have anticipated. Following a September DUI arrest, Wilson landed on the non-football injury list in December to cap a rookie season in which he logged just four snaps. Then-Titans general manager Jon Robinson called out his top pick by saying Wilson had to make "a determination on whether he wants to do what it takes to play pro football." The offensive tackle responded by writing on social media he was "done with football as a Titan." Tennessee obliged him with a trade to the Miami Dolphins for a seventh-round pick swap, though he was waived days later after reports said he showed up late to his physical and skipped multiple workouts. He wouldn't log another snap in the NFL and was fully out of the league by the following January.

Robinson said that "the player that was here in the fall was not the player we evaluated" and later likened the outcome to being catfished on a dating app. He added in a radio interview that he could not reveal all the issues at play in the front office's assessment, but he noted that the complications from the COVID-19 pandemic prevented the team from going through the entirety of the pre-draft process. Discontent began to bubble in Tennessee, and Robinson was responsible for two more rocky draft classes before his surprising ouster in December 2022.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Ranking NFL draft's most foolish draft picks of last 10 years