A thin QB first round is looming in 2026: See the NFL Draft data

Indiana's Fernando Mendoza is projected to go first overall in the NFL Draft to the Las Vegas Raiders by most prognosticators.

But after last year's Heisman winner, the quarterback picture looks barren.

Alabama's Ty Simpson is the only other potential first-rounder, at least according to five mock drafts surveyed by USA TODAY. Simpson is predicted to go 16th overall to the New York Jets by NFL.com, CBS Sports has him going 24th to the Cleveland Browns and USA TODAY's Nate Smith has him going to the Cardinals at No. 20 after a trade.

Should the first round see only Mendoza picked, then 2026 will be just the second year since 2016 that one quarterback was selected in the first round. The previous single-quarterback year was 2022, when Pittsburgh took Kenny Pickett 20th overall.

Since 2016, 35 total quarterbacks have gone in the first round, per Stathead. That's an average of 3.5 per draft.

The high watermark year was 2024, when six total quarterbacks were picked in the first round and three went 1-2-3 overall: Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye.

If Simpson joins Mendoza in the first round, 2026 would match 2025 with exactly two first-round quarterbacks. Last year, Cam Ward went first overall, while Jaxson Dart was 25th.

Beyond Simpson, there aren't many names that could threaten the first round this year.

Per data compiled by Grinding the Mocks, and shared on NFL.com, the only other quarterbacks projected to go in the second or third rounds are LSU's Garrett Nussmeier, Penn State's Drew Allar, and Miami's Carson Beck.

According to Grinding the Mocks' survey of 1,442 drafts, Nussmeier is projected to go in the second round to Arizona in 10% of mock drafts. He also shows up in third round projections: to Pittsburgh by 14% of mocks, the Los Angeles Rams by 11% and Houston by 8%.

Allar is taken in the second by Arizona by 4% of the mock drafts and in the third by the Rams by 8%. Beck, meanwhile, is projected to go only in the third to either Pittsburgh (4%) or Miami (3%).

With those numbers in mind, the odds of seeing three first-round quarterbacks look especially slim. And if that holds, 2026 will rank among the thinnest first rounds for quarterbacks in the past decade.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL Draft 2026 QB data: First-round trend breakdown