12 Cowboys games in 2026 will be against above average passers

NORMAN, OKLAHOMA - DECEMBER 01: A statue of former Oklahoma Sooners former quarterback Jason White in Heisman Park on the campus of Oklahoma University on December 01, 2024 in Norman, Oklahoma. (Photo by Kirby Lee/Getty Images) | Getty Images

What are two things Jayden Daniels, Baker Mayfield, Cam Ward, and Trevor Lawrence have in common? Well, one thing is that they are on the Cowboys schedule as the likely opposing quarterbacks on the 2026 season schedule. The other thing is that each one of them had a passer rating below 91.4 last year.

That 91.4 was the average passer rating in the NFL last year, so all those quarterbacks had a below average passer rating in 2025, which means the Cowboys will play five games against below average passers this season. It also means the 12 remaining games will be against above average passers.

Here's the Cowboys' 2026 schedule, including the projected starting QBs and their respective passer rating:

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Week		Opponent	Quarterback	2025
1	@	Giants	Jaxson Dart	91.7
2		Commanders	Jayden Daniels	88.1
3		Ravens	Lamar Jackson	103.8
4	@	Texans	CJ Stroud	92.9
5		Buccaneers	Baker Mayfield	90.6
6	@	Packers	Jordan Love	101.2
7	@	Eagles	Jalen Hurts	98.5
8		Cardinals	Jacoby Brissett	94.1
9	@	Colts	Daniel Jones	100.2
10		49ers	Brock Purdy	100.5
11		Titans	Cam Ward	80.2
12		Eagles	Jalen Hurts	98.5
13	@	Seahawks	Sam Darnold	99.1
14		Bye Week
15	@	Rams	Matthew Stafford	109.2
16		Jaguars	Trevor Lawrence	91.0
17		Giants	Jackson Dart	91.7
18	@	Commanders	Jayden Daniels	88.1

As you look at this table, you'll notice that eight of the Cowboys' first 10 games will be against above average passers with a passer rating above the 91.4 NFL average. That's a mighty long stretch for a pass defense that ranked 31st in defensive passer rating with 109.6 last year.

While most NFL teams are clear on who their starting QB will be this year, some - like the Cardinals - aren't. Additionally, an injury to a presumptive starting QB, a suspension, or something else could also change the overall picture, but for now, it is what it is.

Anyway, once the team hits Week 11, things will ease up a little, as they'll play three below average passers and only four above average passers.

Some people sneer at passer rating as a metric for QBs (it's old," I don't know how it's calculated," it doesn't account for running QBs") so here's a look at the schedule and the opposing QBs with a different metric: QBR.

QBR incorporates all of a quarterback's contributions to winning, which includes passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties. Also, since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team's level of success or failure on every play (a five-yard completion on a 3rd-and-3 is much more valuable as measured by QBR than a five-yard completion on 3rd-and-15) to provide the proper context to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency.

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Week		Opponent	Quarterback	QBR
1	@	Giants	Jackson Dart	57.5
2		Commanders	Jayden Daniels	44.7
3		Ravens	Lamar Jackson	62.7
4	@	Texans	CJ Stroud	61.7
5		Buccaneers	Baker Mayfield	61.3
6	@	Packers	Jordan Love	72.7
7	@	Eagles	Jalen Hurts	55.2
8		Cardinals	Jacoby Brissett	41.2
9	@	Colts	Daniel Jones	63.0
10		49ers	Brock Purdy	72.8
11		Titans	Cam Ward	33.2
12		Eagles	Jalen Hurts	55.2
13	@	Seahawks	Sam Darnold	55.6
14		Bye Week
15	@	Rams	Matthew Stafford	71.2
16		Jaguars	Trevor Lawrence	58.3
17		Giants	Jackson Dart	57.5
18	@	Commanders	Jayden Daniels	44.7

The picture is even worse when looking at QBR, with only four games against below average quarterbacks, as measured by QBR.

Last year, the Cowboys played against nine QBs with a below average passer rating for the season, and eked out a 5-4 record in those matchups. But they were only 2-5-1 against QBs with an above average passer rating.

Applying those winning percentages (.555 and .313) to the 2026 schedule would give the Cowboys 6.5 wins, which is not what most of Cowboys Nation is looking for.

But what initially looks like bad news could just as well be good news in disguise: It's called regression to the mean.

It's unlikely that all 12 of 17 opposing QBs with an above average passer rating last year will remain above average this year, just as it's unlikely the Cowboys will remain the 31st-ranked pass defense (especially given the massive overhaul of the defense).

And at least as far as the NFC East goes, the Cowboys can relax a little: Washington (13 games against above average passer), Philly (11) and the Giants (11) all play a similar collection of above average passers this year. In fact, there's a whole slew of teams with a high number of above average passers on their schedule:

• 13 games: WAS
• 12 games: DAL, SEA
• 11 games: 9 teams
• 9-10 games: 12 teams
• 8 games: BAL, GB, NO
• 7 games: PIT, MIN, TB, CAR
• 6 games: ATL

If you've read the bullet list carefully, you'll have noticed that there are 24 teams playing nine or more games against above average passers, and that doesn't make any sense. If you're more mathematically inclined, you must be wagging your finger at the screen and and excitedly shouting He took the wrong average! He took the wrong average!"

And while wrong is a small word with a big weight, it is true that there is an issue with the average passer rating here. The issue of course is that the average passer rating from 2025 includes such illustrious quarterbacks as Philip Rivers (80.2 passer rating), Russell Wilson (77.4), J.J. McCarthy (77.2), or Shedeur Sanders (68.1), who drag the league average down.

If we take only the 32 presumptive starting QBs for 2026 (with the following adjustment: 2024 passer rating for Deshaun Watson, career average for Malik Willis, and 2025 NFL average for rookie Fernando Mendoza), the average passer rating jumps to 94.7.

That in turn means the Cowboys only" play against eight above average passers, thus making schedule look much more palatable.

On paper.

But the game is not played on paper. Any way you look at it, the Cowboys will play a lot of very good quarterbacks this year. Last year, it felt like the Cowboys made every run-of-the-mill QB look like a bona fide NFL superstar. Can they do better this year?