Not a Drill: Training Camp is Here!
We're almost there, folks: training camp.
While the NFL offseason is tediously long, I'm usually fine and adequately preoccupied with baseball and the usual summer activities that fill evenings and weekends. The World Cup was also a welcome distraction this year.
Nonetheless, when the MLB All-Star Break hits, the itch becomes impossible to scratch, and football season can't arrive soon enough.
The focus will be on the quarterback competition. Since I last touched on the topic a few weeks ago, the odds have shifted ever so slightly in J.J. McCarthy's favor (-770, 88.5% implied probability, down from -1000, 90.9%).
Regardless, it can still comfortably be filed under shock" if Kyler Murray isn't under center in Week 1. How I feel and what I want are utterly irrelevant. The important thing is that the Vikings' front office has secured the appropriate insurance policy with Murray and (a healthy) Carson Wentz to ensure last year's quarterback situation is not repeated. Good luck to Kyler and J.J., and whatever happens, happens.
There'll be plenty of time to analyze and discuss all of that soon enough. For the purpose of this article, I'd like to take a look at the Top 5 non-QB competition-related storylines I'll be focused on when training camp begins in a few days.
KOC Scheme Tweaks? Year 5 is always a tricky spot for head coaches, especially those who also call plays. Tendencies are well known, and situational preferences are closely scouted. It's wise at this point to consider new looks, or at minimum, tweaks to established norms. Stubbornness and a refusal to do so can be counterproductive.
Take Mike Zimmer. He was a the scheme is the scheme" guy. I specifically remember misplaced confidence, in quotes, before the 2020 season. The result? It was fantastic from 2014-2019, but then it literally fell off a cliff. There was no gradual decline; it went from great to horrific in record time.
I certainly don't expect that from KOC, but perhaps slightly less reliance on 11 Personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) and addressing pass-vs.-run balance and short-yardage criticisms wouldn't hurt.
In 2025, 11 Personnel was used for approximately 60-65% of snaps, and 55-70% in prior seasons. This comes as the Vikings were effective in EPA/pass metrics out of 12 Personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) when it's been used upwards of 25% of the time.
KOC could look no further than his mentor, Sean McVay, and what McVay did with the Rams last year. He embraced 13 personnel (1 RB, 3 TEs, 1 WR) far more than ever before, with tremendous results. I can't get over this:
From 2021-24, Los Angeles used 13 personnel on just six plays total, and against the Jaguars, they ran 13 personnel on nearly 40% of their snaps.
The Vikings could definitely benefit from some unpredictability this season. Likewise, given that Murray is among the most mobile QBs in history and many of McCarthy's best highlights came from him creating plays on the ground, incorporating more read-option and designed runs to maximize this makes a ton of sense.
Yes, I'm well aware that KOC isn't going to show many substantive changes in open practices and preseason games, but that doesn't mean it's not happening. And it doesn't mean you won't see a hint of something in small doses here and there.
Who Will Be WR4? The starting three of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jauan Jennings is set, but it gets interesting after that. While it may not have a dramatic impact this year, the WR4 could see considerable playing time in the future, as Addison has yet to sign an extension and Jennings' deal is only for this season.
My optimism that former third-round pick Tai Felton would be ready to assume the WR3 role this season was premature. Now there appears to be a legitimate competition for WR4.
UFA Dillon Bell, out of Georgia, is an interesting prospect with clear dual-threat capabilities similar to Deebo Samuel. His output was not eye-popping by any stretch, but he seemed to be part of many big-time plays in key moments for the Bulldogs over the past few seasons.
Myles Price is a likely roster lock due to his proven special-teams ability, so he is unlikely to make much noise in this spot. But hey, you never know.
Speaking of you never know, this is the team of Adam Thielen, who is attending a rookie tryout and becoming Adam Thielen - a multi-time Pro-Bowl selection who holds the NFL record for most consecutive 100-yard receiving games. The WR position is always interesting for the Vikings, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if someone unexpectedly makes a name for themselves over the next six weeks.
Harrison Smith Watch/Competition at Safety. Lots of moving pieces on the backend of the defense. I still expect Harrison Smith to return for a 15th season. If so, that will make the Jay Ward-Theo Jackson competition for the starting role something to watch. Ward's defensive snap count share rose considerably in the final three games of the season (78% - 61% - 88%), while Jackson's dipped from his early-season highs. There were injury issues for Jackson, but that doesn't fully explain the decline in production and role. A strong training camp is going to be of paramount importance for both, especially Jackson.
Third-rounder Jakobe Thomas' skill set and scheme flexibility are a perfect fit for Flores' Big Nickel packages, and it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't make a case for starting reps come September. Flores has not hesitated to give rookies valuable playing time if he believes they're ready.
Josh Metellus is the only one given at this point. The rest of the story will be written throughout August in Eagan.
Blake Brandel, Starting Center. The center position has always been important, but it's taken on even greater importance in today's NFL. Not only do centers need to be the general of the offensive line, reading defensive alignments and guiding protection calls, but they also need to be exceptional pass blockers. With the focus on interior pressure, in addition to the traditional outside pass rush, the modern interior d-lineman is far more athletic and capable of creating havoc on their own than in eras past.
The good news? In the 363 snaps he played at center last year for Ryan Kelly, Brandel logged a solid 67.6 PFF pass-blocking grade, good for 14th among eligible centers. An entire offseason of reps should lead to improvement, but how he handles the onslaught of nightmares Brian Flores' scheme will surely present throughout training camp will go a long way toward instilling confidence (or not) as the calendar turns to September.
This issue has been a persistent thorn in the side of the Vikings for far too long. Here's hoping for the best outcome.
Dallas Turner's Development. So far, no additional veteran pass-rushers have been brought in. If this holds, Turner appears to be in line for the entirety of the snaps Jonathan Greenard received over the past two seasons.
I've covered this in a previous post, but when you drill down into the 2025 numbers, Greenard's output wasn't as bad as the topline numbers suggested, while Turner's wasn't quite as good. Unlucky breaks and fortuitous circumstances were at play.
As of now, I can't, in good conscience, say there won't be a drop-off in production. But just as records are made to be broken, so are narratives. A dominant camp by Turner would ease many concerns in a season where so much is on the line. The defense must match its 2025 late-season dominance to meet fans' considerable expectations this season, and it's hard to see that happening if Turner isn't a major part of the equation.
So, there you have it. We made it, folks. The offseason proper will soon be in the rearview mirror - and it couldn't happen soon enough.