2026 Fantasy Football Rankings: Analysis for players ranked 25-36 in Half-PPR
This is Part III and the final column for my fantasy football top-36 rankings. You can read 1-12 and 13-24 to get you caught up to what I view as a pretty clear tier down from the second round. All of these players in the third round are very good in real football terms but might not have the true elite talent of the top-24 players or are in environments that put a relative cap to their total ceiling. Then there's the complete boom-bust nature of players like Rashee Rice, Josh Jacobs and players switching teams.
Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2026 NFL season
More Rankings AnalysisDevonta Smith, WR11, Eagles
With A.J. Brown gone, Smith is the clear-cut WR1 for the first time since he broke as a rookie in 2021. In five games without AJB since then, Smith is the WR3 in yards per game (89) on WR10 targets (9.0). It's an extremely small sample and the Eagles have Makai Lemon now plus their red zone rush rate, but Smith could put up top-10 receiving yards if OC Sean Mannion proves to be an upgrade over last year's static play-caller.
Here's where DeVonta Smith stacks up in terms of yards vs. targets.Hayden WinksSmith was just at 64 YPG and 7.0 targets in games with AJB over that same sample. This could be a 10-20 receiving yards per game trade for Smith, who is firmly in the prime of his career without an injury history. While not quite as physically imposing as the others in the top-10 conversation, Smith checks every box and is capable of moving all across the formation. He'll probably play more outside this year, which could lead to a higher aDOT. I'd welcome that in fantasy, particularly in best ball.
Another framing for Smith's 2026 fantasy value is to see where Brown ranked as Hurts' WR1 over the years, even if these are closer to upside comps than baseline comps. Brown was PPR's WR14 last year, WR16 in 2024, WR8 in 2023, and WR9 in 2022. It paints the picture of a low-end WR1 upside case and a projectable WR2 baseline in both full and half-PPR.
Tee Higgins, WR12, Bengals
Higgins has played 39 games with Joe Burrow healthy since 2022. He averaged 14.9 PPR points, equating to WR14 per-game production on WR15 usage. Even though he's a vertical ball winner receiver, Higgins is actually leading in success rate on his targets since 2022 when Burrow is healthy. That's incredible!
Here's a look at wide receiver points per game in fantasy vs. success rate.Hayden WinksRight now, Burrow is healthy, and I'd even add that the OL is no longer awful in Cincinnati. Hopefully that means more games for the MVP candidate.
The 6'4" X-receiver has also played six games without Ja'Marr Chase since 2022 and averaged 18.1 PPR points in them. That's WR4 per-game since 2022. The contingent upside in the event Chase misses time is obvious, but do not discount it. We'd draft Higgins in Round 1 if he didn't have Chase while Burrow is healthy.
The Bengals offense likely isn't going to change much in 2026 either. It's the same coaching staff with the same defensive question markets. Higgins is a high-floor option in Round 3, particularly in full-PPR. He's a simple-brain target (complimentary).
Javonte Williams, RB14, Cowboys
Williams looked a little healthier on tape last season, even if he's maxed out athletically compared to others in the top-three rounds of fantasy drafts. What he's good at is what coaches love (vision, power, protection), and the Cowboys have some great coaches on offense. Javonte looks like a saint next to Jaydon Blue and Malik Davis, so his playing time feels quite safe after signing a three-year, $24 million contract with $16M guaranteed.
As the clear starter last year, Williams was the RB13 on RB6 usage using half-PPR scoring. That meant an 18th overall finish in total fantasy points over replacement.
His efficiency was fine in the lens of EPA per carry (RB3 among backs with 10+ carries per game) and goal-line success rate (RB1 overall). He was just horrific as a receiver, averaging 2.7 yards per target with a 33% success rate. All of that should even out as an upside RB2 with a volume-based floor.
The Cowboys were second in neutral pace last year, and they're projected for the sixth-most points in 2026, according to the betting markets. Williams just has to be serviceable as an individual talent to pay off his 36th overall ADP.
Williams is projected in the live betting markets for 1,124 rushing yards, 9.5 rushing TDs and 224 receiving yards, similar to fringe first-round picks Saquon Barkley (1,099-8.5-274), James Cook (1,199-10.5), Ashton Jeanty (1,030-7.5-349), and De'Von Achane (999-5.5-424). That's name brand arbitrage.
Kyren Williams, RB15, Rams
Williams is as reliable as it gets on tape, which is why Sean McVay quickly fell in love. His vision, hands, protection and effort all stand out, and the Rams' transition to more gap/power runs has been a nod to those traits.
The Rams were first in points per game, yards per game and success rate last year. With everything firing on all cylinders, Williams was the RB8 on RB12 usage in half-PPR. In previous years, that would've been a lot higher.
The trouble is 2024 third-rounder Blake Corum is starting to get his footing as a wide zone changeup in the offense. Corum is trusted, thus eating into Williams' snaps. In the final four games of the season, including the NFL Playoffs, Williams played between 50%-63% snaps. Williams' lowest snap rate in 2024 was 68%, with most of his games above 85%. I don't think this split is going to change.
For Williams to hold onto low-end RB1 life, the Rams have to stay hot and continue to prioritize Williams in short yardage situations. He had a 65% carry share inside the five-yard line compared to a 58% carry share on all other runs.
At the same time, Williams is too good to be fully "Wally Pipped" and seems insulated as a fantasy RB2 even if the Rams regress some. They're still projected for the most points in the NFL this season for what it's worth (a lot). And there's always the clear top-five upside path if something happens to Corum. Others at the Round 3-4 turn probably don't have that elite upside in their range.
Josh Allen, QB1, Bills
Allen has finished as the QB1 (24.6 points per game), QB3 (23.7), QB1 (25.8) and QB1 (26.4) in recent seasons. The last two years were his worst fantasy years in a long time, and he still separated from the mid- and low-end fantasy QB1s.
Here's a look at QB fantasy points per game vs. catchable pass percentage.Hayden WinksIn terms of overall finishes using fantasy points over replacement per game in half-PPR, Allen has been 30th, 18th, 30th and 19th. It'll be a tier worse than that in full-PPR, but the Round 2-3 baseline value is hard to argue with.
Enter D.J. Moore and a hopefully healthier Dalton Kincaid for 2026. The Bills' pass-catching groups since the Stefon Diggs departure have been underwhelming, and the offense has been more run-heavy and less explosive because of it. If forced to guess if the Bills offense will be better or worse this year, I'd guess better. There is a case for worse with a new offensive line coach and the OL getting another year older, but a notable decline in any way would be a surprise.
Where things get trickiest is evaluating the opportunity cost of Allen in redraft leagues, particularly in full-PPR. This year's QB2-QB6 offer strong passing numbers with a great rushing ceiling, yet come 2-4 rounds cheaper. Then the borderline QB1 range goes as deep as I can remember, possibly to QB20 if the Jordan Love to Malik Willis group hits their ceilings. There's a case to be made to double dip in the Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, etc. tier this year in redraft.
Trey McBride, TE2, Cardinals
McBride was the TE1 overall in fantasy points per game (14.9), expected points (15.1), targets (9.9), receptions (7.4) and yards per game (73) in 2025. All that led to a 19th-overall finish in my favorite all-encompassing fantasy football stat; half-PPR fantasy points over replacement per game. He ranks even higher in full-PPR.
McBride had better stats with Jacoby Brissett than Kyler Murray in 2025, too. McBride averaged 81 YPG and 16.9 PPR points on 20.2 expected PPR points with Brissett at QB!!! That was 55.0 YPG and 9.6 PPR/G in five games with Kyler.
My warning: That drastic split is not expected to repeat.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is likely healthier while entering his third season, third-overall pick Jeremiyah Love was added to the lineup and new HC Mike LaFleur is expected to call a more run-heavy offense.
That's okay. McBride has room to fall back and still be an elite TE1 worthy of a top-25 overall pick, especially in full-PPR redraft leagues. He currently has the highest-projected receiving yards (999.5) among TEs in the betting markets, which is in line with the WRs who are selected in Rounds 2-3.
The harder part will be making the TDs work in a Cardinals offense that has the lowest implied team total in 2026 (18.5 points per game). He's slightly riskier in half-PPR best ball than he is in full-PPR redraft leagues.
With George Kittle rehabbing, McBride is my favorite TE to watch on film. He is a total freight train after the catch, as he wants to equally run through the chests of DBs as much as he wants to hurdle them. He scored some TDs that he had no business scoring based on pure will, all while Arizona had nothing to play for. Total stud.
Chris Olave, WR13, Saints
Olave's role changed under HC Kellen Moore. From 2022-24, Olave had a fairly-deep average depth of target (13.1 yards). Then in 2025, Olave's aDOT dropped to 11.8 yards because he suddenly averaged 3.4 receptions per game within five air yards versus 1.6 in his first three seasons.
Olave also stayed healthy, allowing him to be the WR7 on WR6 usage in PPR. He was fifth in targets per game (9.5) and didn't have to get home with elite efficiency. He simply got the rock with stable QB play led by Tyler Shough, who projects to get better in Year 2.
Olave flies on his downfield routes and is one of the smoothest and craftiest route runners underneath, too. He's not overly physical so there are some very minor limitations to his game, but he's very clearly in that second tier of NFL receivers on tape.
For fantasy football, Olave benefits from the extremely fast-paced offense and how well Moore can assist his receivers with motion or stacked sets. The Saints still only project to be the No. 22 scoring offense, per the betting markets, but that's enough for Olave to maintain an upside WR2 case in fantasy.
Here's a look at who the Saints played with the most pace in the NFL last season.Hayden WinksThe primary downsides are that he's had major history with concussions and has dealt with blood clots for the past half year, plus the addition of first-round WR Jordyn Tyson, who can do some of the underneath work that Olave added to his plate as the clear-cut top target in last year's offense. For those reasons, I'm adding a minor downside case to my rankings, and I'd still draft him at the Round 3/4 border depending on the league settings.
Rashee Rice, WR14, Chiefs
Rice was the WR5 on WR2 expected points last year while healthy. Unfortunately, his on-field production only matters as much as he's on the actual field.
Rice underwent a clean-up procedure for debris in his knee, stemming from his previous knee tear. Deciding to do that in May instead of January is concerning, but it was a reported two-month timeframe and he should be ready for training camp. That original timeframe didn't account for doing part of his rehab in jail.
Rice lost any trust from me many allegations ago, so at any point, the next shoe can drop. It'd be a surprise if the NFL suspended Rice further because of this probation violation, but they could in theory. The Chiefs also could start dialing back his importance to the offense. That could mean a team-based suspension or a slight pivot away from him as a centerpiece. The most likely scenario remains that Rice is ready for Week 1 in a nice role, but the complexity of his knee and the risk of the next legal run-in are real enough to apply a 1-2 Round discount.
Rice is a no-floor upside play somewhere in Round 3 depending on the league settings. He's obviously best in full-PPR, where his underneath and YAC skills are showcased. For what it's worth, Rice is not a man-coverage savant, nor has showcased much beyond the occasional crossing route beyond 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. I wouldn't place him this high in "real life" WR rankings.
Jaylen Waddle, WR15, Broncos
This will be a major Waddle bounce-back season after lots of unavoidable factors worked against him in Miami. As a rookie, Waddle caught 104 passes. That was his only season without Hall of Famer Tyreek Hill. That's the level of schemed-up, upside his talent profile contains.
Unfortunately, his 2022-25 era was very up-and-down. There were 16 useless games (WR67 on average) without Tua Tagovailoa playing. But (!) in games with Tua on the field, Waddle was the WR16 per game in full-PPR, while Tyreek was the WR3 overall ahead of him. There's no question that Waddle is now the No. 1 receiver on his offense after the Broncos traded a fringe first-round pick for him this offseason. In those Tua games, Waddle was leading all WRs in EPA per target. He's very good when he's actually involved, and there's no excuse to not be heavily involved now.
Here's how Jaylen Waddle stacks up on expected FPPG vs. EPA per target.Hayden WinksOnly 7% of Waddle's targets during that 2022-25 span were screens, too. Coach Sean Payton's offenses are very quick-hitting and manufactured, to the point where with Bo Nix over the past two seasons, the Broncos are first in screens (161). Both Marvin Mims Jr. and Troy Franklin have averaged 1+ screens per game across those recent seasons. They will kick rocks now. Many of those should go to Waddle.
For reference, Courtland Sutton was the WR23 per game over the past two seasons without being involved in the screen game and during the rookie and sophomore seasons of Nix.
Breece Hall, RB16, Jets
Hall signed a $29M guaranteed contract ($14.5M APY) to be the Jets' bellcow back. He should be at full health this time around, but the Jets are still projected for 18.6 points per game in the betting markets. That's 31st. When the Jets were 29th in scoring last year (17.6 points per game), Hall only managed an RB22 on RB20 per-game finish.
Geno Smith should be a floor raiser versus Brady Cook, and in the 12 games without Cook in 2025, Hall at least averaged 12.4 half-PPR points (RB17). That was just 9.1 with Cook (RB32).
The Jets OL, featuring stud OTs Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou, should be above average, even if we don't trust the QB situation or (washed) OC Frank Reich. He was fired midseason in 2022 by the Colts, fired midseason in 2023 by the Panthers, sat out in 2024, and then was interim head coach at Stanford in 2025. What can go wrong?
Hall should be up-and-down as a fantasy RB2 while entering the prime of his career without the complications of an ACL tear. The Jets won't have to force him targets with more supporting talent around him now, but he has to be the featured goal-line back over Braelon Allen to reach a ceiling. Hall had four (4) inside the five-yard line carries last season. Not good enough.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB17, Saints
Etienne has cleared 1,399 total yards in three of four NFL seasons, and his lone miss was when he was unhealthy with former Jagaurs coach Doug Pederson. Quietly, this is Etienne's best environment he's ever been in for fantasy points.
Coach Kellen Moore has been functional at every stop, including in his head coaching debut last year with emerging QB Tyler Shough. The Saints were first in neutral pace, but they couldn't create explosives. If Etienne brings that to the table, then the Saints could clear their projected No. 24 scoring offense.
The Saints OL features promising first-round talents at both OT spots, two returning players on the interior and then a new floor-raising veteran at LG. It should be an above-average unit for Etienne to run behind.
Etienne will lose some, if not most, of the pass-down snaps to Alvin Kamara and his $6M-restructured contract, but most fantasy RB2s do not play all downs, so don't double count the news. Instead, don't be surprised if Etienne matches his RB11 on RB14 usage per-game finishes from last season if the Saints can take a Year 2 leap with this young offense.
Josh Jacobs, RB18, Packers
Jacobs was arrested on allegations of one felony and four misdemeanors, all related to a domestic violence allegation. His legal team claims his innocence, and the Packers said they are letting the legal process play out.
On May 27, the District Attorney released Jacobs and did not announce final charges. They have an on-going investigation and could press charges at any time, but for now, the evidence did not meet their burden of proof. There haven't been photos, videos, or detailed police reporting leaked either. Once again, all of this can change at any moment.
The Commissioner's Exempt List does not need a charge to be filed, but it seems unlikely Jacobs would be placed on paid leave if nothing changes. Roger Goodell typically uses evidence brought up in court or media as justification. So far, that hasn't materialized.
A suspension can come after the NFL's investigation is completed, but that is very likely to happen after the criminal case is completed. If charges are eventually brought, then Jacobs could take this to trial, which typically lasts months to years before being on the docket and finalized. If charges are eventually brought, then Jacobs could plead to a lesser charge if given the option, which typically speeds up the process. That's the easiest way Jacobs ends up serving a suspension in 2026.
The CBA has a baseline of six games missed for the first domestic violence case, but that can be fewer or more games based on a variety of factors. There's even precedent of a player, like Jabrill Peppers, who served seven games while on the Commissioner's Exempt List then was removed from it because it's what his suspension would be if the NFL's investigation found him to be guilty. For that reason, it's hard to see Jacobs missing beyond this range.
The most likely outcome is zero games missed in 2026. The average outcome is closer to 2-3 games missed. And the likely upper outcome is the six-game suspension.
When active with the Packers, Jacobs has been a top-10 fantasy RB. Without him, Green Bay's depth chart features MarShawn Lloyd and FB/HB Chris Brooks right now. If they knew a suspension was coming, then a Joe Mixon-type signing or James Conner-type trade are possible. Lloyd is draftable in the final rounds of best ball drafts now that he's on a practice field.
I moved Jacobs after Kyren Williams and Hall as a boom-bust RB2 in late Round 3.