Fantasy Football: Why you can still win even if these key players regress in 2026
Although regression is forever an important consideration in our fantasy games, I often think it's misapplied. Regression is not a mic drop, the end of all debate - it's meant to start the debate. When we discuss players who are likely to regress (and it can be positively or negatively; today, we'll focus on negative regression), we need to ask the follow up: Regress to what level?" It's a conversation with nuance.
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And that brings me to today's discussion, the Regress and Win player. This article will hunt down a number of players who can produce less than they did last year, but still provide an ADP profit (or par) because the market is discounting them this summer, for whatever reason.
Let's play the Regress and Win game.
QuarterbacksDak Prescott (QB5 finish, QB9 ADP)
Trevor Lawrence (QB4 finish, QB10 ADP)
The quarterback board is especially deep this year, which is why all of my teams will employ some version of a Wait on QB" draft strategy. Perhaps this means focusing on the QBs in the 6-10 range, where players like Prescott and Lawrence could easily challenge for supremacy against all the top-shelf QBs, with the likely exception of Josh Allen.
Lawrence went ballistic in December last year and was one of the most common players on championship teams. Prescott looks an awful lot like Joe Burrow to me, linked to a pair of elite receivers and looking at several pinball games this year, trying to outscore what his shaky defense allows. We've seen proof of concept with Prescott already, considering his five best fantasy seasons (QB2, QB3, QB6, QB6, QB7).
Matthew Stafford (QB3 finish, QB13 ADP)
Stafford's case belongs a tier below Prescott and Lawrence, as he's an older QB and offers zero rushing value. The Rams defense is also expected to be much better than the Cowboys defense. But Stafford still has a winning infrastructure around him (Sean McVay, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams) and it's silly to consider how affordable he is, presented as a backup QB in many formats.
Bo Nix (QB7 finish, QB15 ADP)
It's common to discredit Nix as a function of Sean Payton's creative scheming, but so long as Payton is still in Denver, let's turn into the skid; it's a feature, not a bug. Nix is also coming off a busted ankle in last year's playoffs, though summer reports are encouraging. The Broncos already had a solid WR room entering the offseason, and now they welcome a potential needle-mover in Jaylen Waddle. Nix was a polarizing player entering the 2024 NFL Draft, but he's proven a lot of people wrong over two years.
Jared Goff (QB8 finish, QB17 ADP)
Goff leads the NFL in passing yards and TD passes over the past four cumulative seasons, and while there's some survivor bias built into that stat, it still speaks to how comically underrated Goff tends to be. Not much has changed in Detroit - Goff still enjoys a schedule loaded with indoor games, and he's working with an outstanding supporting cast. Goff won't offer anything as a runner, but given his established level of production, he's a screaming giveaway at the current market price.
Running BacksDerrick Henry (RB7 finish, RB11 ADP)
It's not a sizable discount for King Henry as he enters his age-32 season, but every little bit helps when we navigate the early rounds. Henry has scored double-digit touchdowns in a remarkable eight straight seasons, including 34 spikes since relocating to Baltimore two years ago. Henry's efficiency has also been shockingly better with the Ravens, and this offense should be on the improve given a healthy season from QB Lamar Jackson. I recognize the intention to avoid older running backs, but Henry doesn't show any sign of decline.
D'Andre Swift (RB15 finish, RB20 ADP)
I understand the aggressive search for winners in the Chicago passing game, but leave a door open for Swift, who's been quietly consistent in his six NFL seasons. And if there's anything to the Kyle Monangai soft-tissue injury, perhaps Swift could see a modest uptick in usage this year. No matter what the touch count winds up being, we love targeting trusted players in strong offenses - fantasy football often reduces to that simple concept. Swift should be a green light player on your draft board, and the price is reasonable.
Jaylen Warren (RB16 finish, RB27 ADP)
I won't be sad when the Aaron Rodgers experience finally ends after this season, but let's try to scrape a little more toothpaste out of the tube. Rodgers loves throwing to his running backs at this stage of his career - in part because he doesn't want to hold the ball long, or get hit - and Warren is an outstanding safety valve. New RB Rico Dowdle also has a Regress and Win case, but I'll side to Warren here, given he was a more efficient receiver last season and he's already spent a year working with Rodgers.
Tony Pollard (RB24 finish, RB30 ADP)
Boring veteran values are often my jam, and that's Pollard's music in Tennessee. The Titans don't have major competition to his workload - Tyjae Spears struggles to stay healthy, and rookie RB Nicholas Singleton was merely a fifth-round pick. Pollard survived a low-octane offense last year, but it's probably a unit on the rise with Cam Ward entering his sophomore season and the WR room notably improved. Pollard is a nice target as your third or (possibly) fourth running back.
Wide ReceiversCourtland Sutton (WR11 finish, WR39 ADP)
Sutton has become a consistent touchdown scorer the last three years (25 spikes), using his route-running chops and boundary awareness to consistently win in tight spaces. The arrival of Waddle should move Sutton down the board, but this feels like an overcorrection. The option of landing Sutton as a possible WR4 on draft day is too good to pass up.
Michael Wilson (WR13 finish, WR40 ADP)
Wilson is a curious case, as his 2025 breakout came out of nowhere and his production sagged when Marvin Harrison Jr. returned. But if you hold out skepticism on Harrison's true ceiling, Wilson presents an interesting buying opportunity. QB Jacoby Brissett, the architect behind Wilson's shocking midseason surge, is now installed as the opening-day starter.
Stefon Diggs (WR18 finish, WR44 ADP)
Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR28 finish, WR53 ADP)
Wan'Dale Robinson (WR16 finish, WR64 ADP)
We'll batch this group of team-changing receivers together, although Samuel returns to a San Francisco organization that knows him well. Robinson can also play the familiarity card, as his PPR-busting days in New York were tied to Brian Daboll, the new Tennessee OC. Diggs was surprisingly consistent in his one New England season and heads to a Washington offense desperate for a consistent WR2. Even with age concerns, Diggs and Samuel are easy names to click on. I suspect Robinson will probably lead the Titans in receptions.
Tight EndsKyle Pitts Sr. (TE2 finish, TE8 ADP)
I understand why Pitts' 2025 finish is being viewed skeptically, as most of it was crammed into the end of the season, and most fantasy managers know what it's like to feel Pitts disappointment through the years. But Pitts has always been a pedigree player, the Atlanta downfield passing game has little after WR Drake London and it's possible QB Tua Tagovailoa (the presumed starter) could be an upgrade over the Michael Penix Jr. and Kirk Cousins show we endured last year. Maybe Pitts just needed some favorable healthy and a break in timing to showcase his exciting ceiling.
Jake Ferguson (TE8 finish, TE15 ADP)
Two years ago Ferguson didn't score a touchdown, last year he had a juicy eight spikes. But the bagel from 2024 was partially explained by the Dak Prescott injury, so I'm inclined to throw it out. Ferguson's 17-game pace over the last three years (even with that brief touchdown drought) hashes out to a 76-657-5 pace. That's where I'd set his touchdown floor, and the other volume would easily pay off his ADP.
Juwan Johnson (TE 10 finish, TE18 ADP)
Johnson's 2025 breakout came with a signal - the Saints extended him before the season, a sign of things to come. Johnson probably ran unlucky with touchdowns last year, and although the Saints have an exciting WR room, Johnson should be second or third in targets in a passing game that was surprisingly cromulent in 2025. Kellen Moore is a right answer at head coach, and Tyler Shough is a competent starter, too. Enjoy your generous Johnson discount at the tables.
Hunter Henry (TE7 finish, TE22 ADP)
Henry carried an injury-prone tag early in his career, but he's thrown that in the trash - he's missed just four games in the last five seasons. The Patriots obviously added significant talent to their WR room, but Henry's experience and size makes him a fun pick at this inexpensive ADP. Even entering an age-32 season, I have no problem projecting Henry for a useful 60-720-6 type of season, which would easily beat his market cost.