AFC Over/Unders 2026: New Coaches Everywhere

The AFC North is going to feel very different this year. Gone is Mike Tomlin, who had been in charge of the Pittsburgh Steelers since 2007. Gone is John Harbaugh, who had been in charge of the Baltimore Ravens since 2008. Gone is Kevin Stefnaski, who had only been in charge of the Cleveland Browns since just 2020, but had picked up two Coach of the Year nods along the way and was the first coach since Butch Davis to lead Cleveland to the playoffs. Gone is Zac Taylor, who... ...wait, Taylor is still here? Of all the coaches the AFC North decided to keep, the Bengals kept Zac Taylor? Huh. Well, the more things change, I suppose. It's a weird transition year in the division, and we haven't even gotten to Myles Garrett being sent packing. And our projections think it will be a fairly disappointing year all around for what has traditionally been a championship-contending group and then also the Browns. The division peaks with the Ravens, projected as average in all three phases of the game. The Bengals also peak around average, though that's all the offense dragging the defense in the general vicinity of respectability. The Steelers are hanging around in the average-to-below-average tier as they wait one more season before getting a fresh start at quarterback, whatever that might look like. And the Browns are the worst team in football. At least with three teams relatively closely clustered together, the division race should be tight, but it does feel like we're waiting to see who will get the No. 4 seed and an early elimination more than anything else. That being said, in a division with Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, can you really count anyone out? Other than Cleveland. Once again, you may count them out at your leisure. Remember, you can search for the best odds on these, or any other props with ourProp Shop.

Baltimore Ravens (11.5) You don't know what you've got until it's gone... John Harbaugh was the best coach in Ravens history - maybe not the hardest honor to achieve when you're only the third coach in Ravens history, but you've got to start somewhere. And he is absolutely still a very good coach, leading Baltimore to double-digit wins in six of the last eight seasons. I understand the frustration with Baltimore repeatedly falling in the middle rounds of the playoffs, with only one AFC Championship Game appearance since 2012. Parting ways from a coach as you look for the final piece of the puzzle to get you over the top makes a certain amount of sense, even if I don't really find Harbaugh responsible for the Ravens' swoons in recent years. Sometimes, you just have to freshen things up for the sake of freshening things up. That still means the Ravens probably saw the biggest drop in coaching skill of any team in the league, going from Harbaugh to Jessie Minter. Don't get me wrong, Minter was the top young defensive mind available this offseason, and I understand Baltimore hoping they can replicate the Mike Macdonald turn around in Seattle. But when you fire someone and they immediately become the hottest person on the job market, that must at least leave you second guessing if you've done the right thing or not. There's roughly zero chance that Minter will be as good as Harbaugh was. Of course, that's not the question - it's whether Minter will be as good as Harbaugh would have been this year and going forward. The odds are better there, but still bleak. I suspect Ravens fans will come to regret letting Harbaugh walk before the 2026 season is over. And it's not just Minter stepping into a leadership role for the first time. Offensive coordinator Declan Doyle is a first-time playcaller, too, and there's going to be an adjustment curve as Lamar Jackson gets used to the new system. He'll be fine; he's a two-time MVP for a reason, but there's friction there, and we've seen the growing pains in practice all summer long. They're trying to remove the moments when Jackson has to go off-script and give him more structured reads and progressions. That's a little weird, considering how well Jackson plays out of structure, but I imagine things will work out eventually. But it's part of a strange offseason that has me feeling very negative about Baltimore. Tyler Linderbaum is gone, and they really never replaced him. The entire interior of the offensive line is a work in progress, and while I like Vega Ioane, he's a rookie and who knows how that will work out. The weapons are still questionable - Derrick Henry will surely age out at some point, and their receiving corps still is frightening. The Maxx Crosby rescinded trade is one of the strangest sagas in recent offseason memory, and while Trey Hendrickson is a very solid plan B, it all adds up to an offseason where it doesn't quite feel like the Ravens know what they're doing - a massive shift from normal for this franchise. Strongest Position: I don't think it's quarterback anymore; not with the by-now annual Lamar Jackson injuries. He's still very, very good, don't get me wrong, but Kyle Hamilton, Malaki Starks and Jaylinn Hawkins are the best group of safeties in football, and it's not particularly close. Weakest Position: Trey Hendrickson is a boost, but it just brings Baltimore's edge rushing situation to adequate rather than a disaster. I don't rate Mike Green or Tavius Robinson highly at all, and Zion Young is an untested rookie. It's not the worst division to have a sub-par pass rush in, but that's what I see here. Biggest Question: Are the blown leads gone with the coaching change? Was Harbaugh's style - conservatively sitting on large leads and letting other teams roar back - causing Baltimore to lose games they should have won? That's the leading opinion amongst Ravens fans at the moment, but we'll have to wait and see if the Ravens become better closers just because the guy at the helm changed. Verdict: Under 11.5. You can get Baltimore missing the playoffs entirely at +305, and I like those odds better than over 11.5 wins at -145. I like those odds significantly better. Cincinnati Bengals (10.5) I do think I'm taking Cincinnati to win the division, defensive warts and all (and oh boy, are those some defensive warts). But because I'm worried about the Ravens, that means I've got the top of the AFC North significantly lower than Vegas has it, so it's far from an automatic over here. I do like Bengals at 10.5 more than Ravens at 11.5; there's no doubt. And assuming Joe Burrow stays healthy for most of the season, they should shoot well past their six-win total from a year ago. The defense is still not going to be good, but they knew that coming in - this is a team built to try to outscore its defensive deficiencies, and it's a lot easier to do that with Burrow rather than Joe Flacco or Jake Browning. If you're a fantasy guy, Cincinnati looks fantastic - maybe even the best team in the league. Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are all studs, and it's not like Chase Brown is a slouch, either. The problem is everything else. And there's a lot of everything else. This was one of the worst defenses in the league last season, and they lost Trey Hendrickson - no good. A big trade for Dexter Lawrence II is a splash, and an uncharacteristic one for the Bengals, plus they added Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe and Bryan Cook. But the hole they're digging out of is so damn large - remember, they were the worst defense in DVOA history, going back to 1977, over the first half of last season. They got better over the back half of the year, true, but even that better" barely scraped average, and I don't expect them to reach those heights again this year. The offensive line is a problem, too, which is not great when you have a quarterback who keeps getting hurt! No effort was made to improve that group this year, meaning they're still running out Orlando Brown Jr. and Dylan Fairchild on the left side of the line, which does not spark joy. Burrow might have to be running for his life once more, and if I have to watch Joe Flacco continue to start games in the year 2026, I am going to lose my mind. Don't get me wrong - Cincinnati will win more games than they lose, and their defense won't be historically bad this year. But I was shocked to see a double-digit win-loss line when I looked Cincinnati up. Over 8.5, on to a winning record? I'm in. Over 9.5, to hit double digits? Maybe not at -160, but I can see it. But the Bengals haven't hit double-digit wins since 2022, and I don't think they've done enough for me to put them there now. Strongest Position: I'll just group the passing attack as a whole together. Joe Burrow and the quarterback position is probably the right answer - as much as I'm done with Flacco, he's still a cromulant backup at age 89,032. That probably puts it slightly beyond the wideout group of Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and coughs into hand and fades out dramatically. Weakest Position: As bad as the defense is, that tight end room may be worse. Drew Sample, Mike Gesicki, Tanner Hudson, oh my. Three guys on the wrong side of 50. Maybe Gesicki should be rostered at this point? He's probably good enough to play for a team. The other guys, though... Biggest Question: Will the defense scrape the realm of the below average rather than the terrible? This has been the Bengals' biggest question for the last three years, and intermittently since about 2016. It's good to see Cincinnati recycling talking points to save us columnists some time during these previews. Verdict: It's not a massive under, but it's an under notwithstanding. Somewhere between 9-11 wins seems most likely for Cincinnati, and too much of that range is under this line. I'd probably just stay away. Cleveland Browns (5.5)Hello darkness, my old friendThe Browns will welcome you again.Because a QB known for creepingHas the Cleveland fanbase weepingAnd the visions that were planted in our brainAre mostly painThis is the sound of sadness.Star pass rusher sent awayThe one we wanted to watch playJared Verse is pretty good, I hearBut he wasn't Player of the YearAnd there's no hiding the depth chart's many wartsWithout Jim SchwartzAll that's left, is sadness.Jim Haslam only seems awakeFlogging his palace by the LakeAs for 2026? Who cares!All he wants to do is sell some chairs!As his team continues on another losing march(Let's Suck for Arch?)Til then he'll take your sadness.I saw a thousand tortured soulsDreaming of touchdowns or field goalsBut no answers to their prayers appearIt's another lost and hopeless yearAnd the only product of Cleveland's factoryIs miseryHave one more year of sadness.Strongest Position: The off-ball linebackers are still pretty dang good. Carson Schwesinger was a well-deserved defensive rookie of the year, and while Quincy Williams is coming off a down season, he's still a good run dropped and the change of scenery might do him good. Weakest Position: The last time we saw Deshaun Watson, he put up the 11th-worst season in DVOA history. The last time we saw Shedeur Sanders, he put up the fifth-worst season in DVOA history. The last time we saw Dillon Gabriel, he put up the 60th-worst season in DVOA history. Just start Taylen Green and get it over with. Biggest Question: Can the defense still be top 10? It wasn't all Myles Garrett and Jim Schwartz, though those were the most two important pieces. You can do far worse than a top trio of Schwesinger, Verse and Mason Graham, and while there's not a ton of depth here, guys like Ronnie Hickman, Maliek Collins, Tyson Campbell and Grant Delpit are a solid foundation to work with. It won't be as good as it was last year, and it won't be good enough to drag the offense anywhere interesting, but this could still be a very decent unit, even after the exodus. Verdict: Under, in case that wasn't clear. Pittsburgh Steelers (8.5) 8.5 wins seems just about right for Pittsburgh, which makes picking a value on this line tough, as well. More than most teams, the Steelers feel like they have a hard floor and hard ceiling in 2026. Leaving the Mike Tomlin era is going to be very strange, but Mike McCarthy is a capable head coach. And that's sort of all he is, at this point - he's not going to be embarrassing out there, but it's hard to get overly excited about a Mike McCarthy team in 2026. He is a very solid regular season coach who is not going to drive the franchise off a cliff. The Steelers have opted to try to continue to be competitive as opposed to blowing things up and starting a full-on rebuild, and McCarthy is a good pick to do that. But when was the last McCarthy team that made any sort of noise like a contender? 2016 in Green Bay? Maybe that's not entirely fair; the 2021 Cowboys led the league in DVOA and were looking feisty before they slid to a halt against the 49ers in the Wild Card round. But that's the thing with McCarthy's teams - sure, they'll win games, but it always feels like when, not if, the bottom falls out. At least he's reuniting with his 2016 quarterback in Aaron Rodgers and... look. Rodgers has forgotten more about playing quarterback than you or I will ever know (and what he's replaced that knowledge with is left as an exercise for the reader). He is not an embarrassment on the field into his early 40s, which is an accomplishment in and of itself. But the multi-time MVP, first-ballot Hall of Famer is gone. There's not even a Pro Bowl-caliber player left. Rodgers was 21st in DVOA and 19th in DYAR last year, and there's little reason to believe it will be any different in 2026. He has become a dink-and-dunker, unable or unwilling to complete downward passes with any sort of regularity. You combine a quarterback who can't get the ball into the air with a skill position corps that can't turn on the speed with a coach whose last offensive innovation came when Can't Stop the Feeling!" was on the charts, and you're not left with something super exciting. But Rodgers is still better than a quarter of the league, the defense is aging but talented... look, this isn't going to be a bad team, most likely, but it's hard to find something to get really excited about here. You can take the Tomlin out of the team, but you can't take the urge to finish just at the edge of wild card range out of the franchise without some sort of long-term exorcism. Next year, perhaps. Strongest Position: T.J. Watt is on the back side of his career, but he can still bring it, and there's hope that the new scheme will move him around and help get some of his mojo back. Then you add in Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig, and no other team goes three-deep on the edge like Pittsburgh does. Weakest Position: The Steelers kept four quarterbacks - zillion-year-old Rodgers, veteran backup to keep the ship upright Mason Rudolph, last year's developmental prospect Will Howard and this year's developmental project Drew Allar. Feel the excitement? It's hard to really put your finger on what they should have done during this, a holding pattern season, but it's not a room that makes you jump for joy. Biggest Question: Can McCarthy help bring Rodgers out of the doldrums he's been in ever since he went to New York? Can Rodgers inspire McCarthy to open up his playbook in a way he never really did in Dallas? Can you make a Terrible Towel out of cheese? These, and fewer, questions to be answered this offseason. Verdict: I hate to go under on all four teams in the division, because someone is going to win these games. My unders on Baltimore and Cleveland are picked with some force; my opinions on Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are more looking at the potential financial returns on the lines as Vegas gives them and not finding value there. I would wager on one of the Bengals or Steelers hitting the over. I'm just not confident which. So it's another tepid under here, as the Steelers hover around .500 once more.