Fantasy Football: Risk/reward rankings for top-24 picks in Yahoo ADP
The first two rounds in fantasy football are full of difference makers, whether it's your fantasy stars or players that drag down your season. Analyst Joel Smyth goes over the risk and reward of top-24 players for 2026.
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Round 1 and Round 2 players are where you can separate yourself with a ceiling hit - not just getting a couple more PPG, but 10+ compared to the average fantasy starter. At the same time, if you waste a top-24 pick, it's hard to win a championship, not to mention win or even make the playoffs.
ADP: 1st Overall - RB Jahmyr GibbsRisk: 1/5
Reward: 5/5
The perfect 1.01 selection; no risk, all the reward. Without David Montgomery, the Lions will give Jahmyr Gibbs all the work he can handle on one of the league's top offenses. There haven't been any negative changes and the Lions have no RB2 that is a threat for touches.
ADP: 2nd Overall - RB Bijan RobinsonRisk: 3/5
Reward: 5/5
The combination of a lower-ranked offense, new coaching and QB injuries makes Bijan a riskier pick than Gibbs. However, he dealt with QB injuries last year on a below-average offense and finished top-three with Tyler Allgeier still in the building. Is there potentially more to overcome, sure, but he can do it.
ADP: 3rd Overall - WR Ja'Marr ChaseRisk: 2/5
Reward: 5/5
I'll give it a 2/5 risk only because he is worse without Joe Burrow on the field (as anyone else would be). Even so, with Burrow out for half a season, Chase, like Robinson, was top-three. He's very easy to get involved and produces at a high level even in the worst case scenario. Cincinnati's offense will be the same it's been since 2021.
ADP: 4th Overall - WR Puka NacuaRisk: 3/5
Reward: 5/5
On 2025's best offense, Nacua was the overall WR1. There's not many changes and not many negatives, but the looming potential of a suspension brings some risk, although it is unlikely to be a long-term situation.
ADP: 5th Overall - RB Christian McCaffreyRisk: 5/5
Reward: 5/5
The easiest to rank. McCaffrey has four of the five best RB finishes since 2018 and is set up for another 350+ touch season in the dynamic 49ers offense. In six seasons, he's been a fantasy superstar, but in the other three, he's ruined your team. Off a 400+ touch season at 30 years old, the fear is high in the fantasy community, but I have a good amount of faith based on the fact he's entering the year completely healthy.
ADP: 6th Overall - RB Jonathan TaylorRisk: 3/5
Reward: 5/5
The top six all have 5/5 upside, with Taylor ranking as the RB1 before the Daniel Jones injury last season. That's where the risk comes in as well, with his QB's Achilles. It's not an easy injury to bounce back from, and if the offense is closer to average because of it in 2026, then Taylor's production would be deeply affected.
ADP: 7th Overall - WR Jaxon Smith-NjigbaRisk: 2.5/5
Reward: 4/5
The absence of Klint Kubiak isn't nothing, as Smith-Njigba's first star season came with an offense that fired on all cylinders. They will move to a first-time play-caller in Brian Fleury, who will attempt to replicate Seattle's success. In a run-heavy offense with a dominant defense, Smith-Njigba's efficiency will have to be perfect once more to finish as the WR2.
ADP: 8th Overall - WR Amon-Ra St. BrownRisk: 2/5
Reward: 4/5
The coaching change is the only risk factor. I am not worried about Drew Petzing as much as others due to 1) Dan Campbell still there and 2) St. Brown finishing top-three once again, in a year where their offensive coordinator got fired midseason.
ADP: 9th Overall - RB James Cook IIIRisk: 2/5
Reward: 4/5
Pass-catching is rumored, not guaranteed. A lack of receiving floor means one fail-safe that other running backs have is not available to Cook, at least in the past. Even so, the Bills' offensive line and offense make it unlikely that he'll need it, although it'd bring a new ceiling to his game.
ADP: 10th Overall - WR CeeDee LambRisk: 2/5
Reward: 3/5
The Cowboys offense and Dak Prescott will once again be great. There's been no changes and Lamb is an annual WR1. That being said, George Pickens isn't going away either, and can hold Lamb back from having that top-three WR upside.
Subscribe to Fantasy Ultra to unlock our Strategy Lab, 150+ page Draft Playbook and more!ADP: 11th Overall - RB Saquon BarkleyRisk: 3.5/5
Reward: 4/5
At 29-years-old, off a down year with limited receiving, Barkley still brings some concern on draft day. The offense should get better, but it remains to be seen with new, and first-time, play caller Sean Mannion.
ADP: 12th Overall - WR Justin JeffersonRisk: 4/5
Reward: 4/5
Similar to Barkley's situation, the offense has to get better, right? I trust in Kevin O'Connell, but all the chips are in on Kyler Murray. If Murray doesn't live up to expectations, or the downfield consistency isn't there, Jefferson could face similar struggles as 2025. He is still Justin Jefferson, though, and has been a fantasy superstar every other season.
ADP: 13th Overall - RB De'Von AchaneRisk: 4/5
Reward: 4/5
The Miami offense is projected to be bottom-three in scoring this year, which is often too much for star RBs to overcome, at least at the level they are drafted. With new coaching and QB play, so much of the Dolphins offense is unknown. On the ceiling side, we've seen overall RB1 spurts from De'Von Achane and he will have the volume to pull it off if the offense is average.
ADP: 14th Overall - RB Kenneth Walker IIIRisk: 3/5
Reward: 4/5
The small injuries have been the issue for Walker. He can score 20+ PPG as he did in the NFL playoffs, but he's not been able to have a full season of domination, with his best year resulting as a fringe RB1. Switching teams is often the biggest risk-reward scenario.
ADP: 15th Overall - RB Chase BrownRisk: 2/5
Reward: 4/5
Brown isn't going to go out and get 350+ touches, but he has been an RB2 or better in 21 of 22 career games as the Bengals' RB1 with Joe Burrow. Ridiculous consistency that can only be ruined by another injury to his QB.
ADP: 16th Overall - RB Ashton JeantyRisk: 4/5
Reward: 4/5
We've seen the talent, but not (fully) the production. It's a projection, although there's good reason for it with Kubiak coming in and a new offensive line. The uncertainty around the offense as a whole and the Week 1 injury still make Jeanty a risk, especially to begin the year.
ADP: 17th Overall - RB Derrick HenryRisk: 4/5
Reward: 3/5
I'm sorry, but I can't help myself - have to put a 4/5 risk. Some offensive line concerns and another first-time play-caller add to it, but the main issue is in fact the age. Yes, I know, Henry's different, but he truly has to be one of a kind. A lot of Hall of Fame talents have been "different," but it wasn't enough. Since 2000, Henry is one of five RBs in Year 10 to score 15+ PPR PPG, and the first since 2010! Zero of those four did it the next season.
We haven't had a 15+ PPG scoring RB in Year 11 this century. The closest was Marshall Faulk at 13 PPG, Frank Gore at 12 and Emmett Smith at 11. Fingers crossed.
ADP: 18th Overall - RB Omarion HamptonRisk: 3/5
Reward: 4/5
Hampton has a golden opportunity in front of him. The risk is primarily in the unknown. Hampton was a fringe RB1 for half a season and that's all we have to go off of. Mike McDaniel is a huge bump, but is it 100% guaranteed that Hampton gets the volume? The ceiling is huge if the answer is yes, as McDaniel has had a top-seven RB in three straight seasons.
ADP: 19th Overall - WR Drake LondonRisk: 5/5
Reward: 4/5
With Michael Penix Jr., London is dominant when healthy. The problem is Penix may not even start the season, and the Falcons have not looked hot in camp without him on the field. If Tua Tagovailoa is the starting QB, the confidence I have in London getting productive downfield targets plummets. If everyone stays healthy in Atlanta, I have confidence London can finish top-five, but that is not certain to happen.
ADP: 20th Overall - QB Josh AllenRisk: 3/5
Reward: 3/5
Both the risk and reward here is positional. Compared to QBs, he's basically a 1/5 risk, 5/5 reward, but QBs going Round 2 need to smash. Around five QBs will score 20+ PPG this season, meaning Allen better score well over that. Even as the overall QB1 last year, he ranked outside the top 12 in value over replacement. He has been top-two in six straight seasons, but will need to be top-one to pay off his price.
ADP: 21st Overall - TE Brock BowersRisk: 3/5
Reward: 4/5
Similar to Allen, but to a lesser extent, TEs in Round 2 better work. You're sacrificing a shot at a top WR or RB and need a big season. Bowers had the best rookie season in history at the TE position, so that's a good start when talking upside. Kubiak will make him the focus of the passing offense as the top receiver and should be creative in getting him the ball. If Kyle Pitts Sr. can score over 16 PPR PPG with Kirk Cousins, imagine what Bowers can do.
ADP: 22nd Overall - WR Nico CollinsRisk: 3/5
Reward: 4/5
Very similar case to Walker, Collins has shown he can be a force, but needs to have a season where he stays on the field consistently. After the Jayden Higgins season-ending injury, Collins is set up to have a crazy target share, and will have a shot to get back to his 2024 self: a top-three fantasy WR when healthy.
ADP: 23rd Overall - WR George PickensRisk: 2/5
Reward: 3/5
Exactly the same situation as Lamb at a lesser cost. Pickens was out-targeted 116-99 in games together, but that gap shrinks to 103 vs. 95 when removing Pickens' first game with Dak Prescott (and being shadowed by CB Quinyon Mitchell). Lamb has the edge, but it's close.
ADP: 24th Overall - WR A.J. BrownRisk: 5/5
Reward: 5/5
Are you worried that the Rams got scared off by A.J. Brown's medical tests? Should we be? It's the epitome of high-risk, high-reward. A 29-year-old with lingering lower-body issues goes to a New England team that ranked first in fantasy points per target without a WR1. Two-point-oh-six points per target to the likes of Kayshon Boutte, Mack Hollins, etc. You do the math on Brown being a 10-target-per-game player in 2026.