Value of Things: By the Numbers

Sunday sees a matchup of two 0-2 football teams that have lost to two playoff bound teams in their first two weeks. In other words, neither fan base knows for sure whether the lack of success is a factor of difficult opponents or glaring roster holes. Obviously, it is likely it will be a combination. So, the numbers we look at may not actually be indicative of the quality of the unit. That is a part of the peril of handicapping early season matchups,

The Texans in particular showed glaring defensive holes in week one and glaring offensive holes in week two. It is almost a version of Dr. Heckyl and Mr. Jackass. The Colts have some of the same issues going on on both sides of the ball. It will be a battle to see who the real team is. One will walk away feeling some hope for the rest of the season. The other will be entering desperation mode. Of course, the Texans have been there on more than one occasion. Maybe they work best in desperation mode.

The Numbers

	Texans	Colts
Rushing Yards	25th	16th
Passing Yards	3rd	25th
Rushing Yards allowed	6th	31st
Passing yards allowed	26th	32nd

I should point out that the Texans have a major identity crisis on their hands. They say they are a hard-nosed physical running team. Their numbers say they are a passing team. That's a significant issue we will have to sink our teeth into as the season goes if those trends continue. Obviously, a part of that comes from playing from behind for much of the first two games. Numbers always have a context.

The Colts numbers also have a context. The Chiefs and Ravens are two of the better offenses in the AFC, so either the Colts are bad or they just look bad. This Sunday will tell the tale on both accounts. So, let's take a look at what each team will try to do to each other.

What will the Colts offense do?

Jonathan Zachary" Taylor is one of the best five backs in football year in a year out. He doesn't get the press that those other guys get primarily because he doesn't show up in prime time nearly as much as those other backs. Plus, to call Daniel Jones a part of the middle class of quarterbacks is doing a whole lot of heavy lifting. Jones can be effective with his feet and when used in concert with Taylor gives the Colts one of the most dynamic rushing attacks in the NFL. Jones is facing the same issue this week that Stroud faced last week. He will not have Alex Pierce, so there will be limited targets. Ty Warren is a weapon to be sure and one to watch in the play action game and on run pass options. The Colts will be successful if they can stay ahead of the chains. If not, it could be a long day for Jones.

What will the Colts defense do to the Texans?

The Texans do not have a back the caliber of Derrick Henry or Kenneth Walker. David Montgomery has spent most of his career as a complimentary back. He has been one of the better ones, but he is not capable of carrying a team on his own. This is particularly true if that team struggles up front. So, if you shut down Montgomery and Woody Marks like the Bengals did and the Texans offense starts to look really ordinary really fast. Of course, they have also struggled against the pass, but Stroud is not Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes. So, there is some hope on their end.

What will the Texans offense do to the Colts?

Here we go again. There is what they want to do and what they actually can do. The best thing a football team can do is lean into what they do well. Right now, the Texans have been effectively passing the football. At press time, Nico Collins' status is still unknown. He has torched the Colts in the past, so we could probably start there if he is able to play. If he isn't then Nick Caley will need to be creative. It might start by admitting that what is left over is not what we would call traditional playmakers. Again, the best teams are the teams that acknowledge what is and then lean into what is. We can hope for a hard-nosed rushing attack that takes pressure off of Stroud. Hope might be all we have at this point. One thing is for sure, if you can't run on the Colts then you probably can't run on anyone.

What will the Texans defense do to the Colts?

Like with the Colts, the Texans pass defense looks bad, but anyone can look bad against Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. What you are is made up of who you are in a majority of your data points. That is done over the course of 17 weeks and the playoffs. If Daniel Jones torches them then we know we have a problem. So, the key is slowing down Taylor. That will be easier said than done because he is likely the best back they have faced to this point in the season. If they can keep the Colts behind the sticks then they win the game. Period.