NFL Week 4 Survivor/Eliminator Picks

So this season is off to a terrible start for teams like the Chargers, Texans and Buccaneers. And also for me, because I'm now 1-2 (and only a couple minutes away from 0-3) in NFL Survivor, a contest that famously is one-and-done as far as losses go. But! Maybe you didn't listen to me yet and now you are turning to my should-be-sage counsel going forward. Stranger things have happened. So check out my Week r pick for Survivor contests. And while we're here, you can use our NFL Betting Model and our Bet Tracker to make a pick for yourself.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 4

Every week, we have the same process. We eliminate teams in groups until we narrow it down to our real considerations. Start with all 32, whittle it down. And remember - this game is once you use a team, they're off the board," so it's not always just a matter of taking the team you think will win. There has to be some strategy. I can't pick a team I've picked before, but you might not have tailed me, so previously used teams are eligible until the end.

Opponent Is Too Good

Maybe these are good teams, maybe not, but it's too hard to trust them given who they are facing. This is a 10-team list every week (fewer when there are byes); we are eliminating anyone facing a top-10 team in our FTN NFL Power Rankings. Carolina Panthers (vs. Detroit) Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Jacksonville) Denver Broncos (@ San Francisco) Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Cincinnati) Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Kansas City) Los Angeles Chargers (@ Seattle) New England Patriots (@ Buffalo) Philadelphia Eagles (vs. LA Rams) San Francisco 49ers (vs. Denver) Tennessee Titans (@ Baltimore) Some of these teams will win but you can't confidently say so, considering who they're facing. That's 10 gone, 22 to go.

They're Too Bad

You can face the worst team in all of football, but if you're the second-worst team, well, I'm still not going to be too excited about selecting you. We'll return to the power rankings here and cross off any team in the bottom 12. Arizona Cardinals (@ NY Giants) Atlanta Falcons (@ New Orleans) Cleveland Browns (vs. Pittsburgh) Green Bay Packers (@ Tampa Bay) Miami Dolphins (@ Minnesota) New York Giants (vs. Arizona) New York Jets (@ Chicago) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Green Bay) Washington Commanders (vs. Indianapolis in London) Nine more eliminations leaves us with 13 remaining. Want more tools and analysis to keep you alive in your survivor pool? Check out PoolGenius for all the best offerings.

Island Games

Island games just get weird. I would need some very convincing evidence to pick anyone on a Thursday, or a Monday, or an overseas 9 a.m. ET game. There aren't many left this week, but I still want to note them. Detroit Lions (@ Carolina) Indianapolis Colts (vs. Washington in London) New Orleans Saints (vs. Atlanta) Pittsburgh Steelers (@ Cleveland) Four more gone, nine left - our nine contenders.

The Contenders

Once we're down to this small a number of teams, we're done cutting them in swaths. We look at the pros and cons for each team and then figure it out. I'm also diving into our NFL Betting Model to see what the numbers think of the game.

Baltimore Ravens (vs. Tennessee)

Model Projection: Ravens 26.79-18.36, Ravens 72.0% win rate Pros: The Titans are a total mess right now, while the Ravens are getting healthier. Also, Derrick Henry revenge (?) game. Cons: Well, the Ravens will lead by 10-13 in the second half, but that's when they ruin things for you all too often.

Buffalo Bills (vs. New England)

Model Projection: Bills 25.75-22.79, Bills 57.6% win rate Pros: The Bills are 3-0, while the Patriots increasingly look like last year's Super Bowl run was a total fluke. Cons: If Josh Allen turns the ball over like he did last week, that'll start to catch up with him. And a divisional game is always higher stakes.

Chicago Bears (vs. NY Jets)

Model Projection: Bears 27.66-20.60, Bears 67.6% win rate Pros: The Bears just beat a supposedly good Eagles team with their No. 3 quarterback. Coaching masterclass. Cons: Are you really going to count on a 38-year-old No. 3 quarterback winning two weeks in a row?

Dallas Cowboys (@ Houston)

Model Projection: Texans 25.46,23.80, Cowboys 45.8% win rate Pros: They're only 1-2, but the Cowboys are close to 2-1 and the offense is still excellent, while the Texans have been mostly lost. Cons: Are we really betting on the Texans falling to 0-4?

Houston Texans (vs. Dallas)

Model Projection: Texans 25.46,23.80, Texans 54.2% win rate Pros: If there was a defense that would get Houston going, it would be Dallas', right? Cons: You're not going to rest your entire season on an 0-3 team.

Kansas City Chiefs (@ Las Vegas)

Model Projection: Chiefs 24.03-21.22, Chiefs 57.7% win rate Pros: The Chiefs are one of only five undefeated teams, and Kenneth Walker III looks like the newest elite running back. Cons: The Raiders are another of the five undefeated teams, and while no one believes they're this good, you'll feel silly if they prove you wrong.

Los Angeles Rams (@ Philadelphia)

Model Projection: Rams 25.84-19.69, Rams 66.4% win rate Pros: The Rams are supposed to be one of the league's best teams. Surely they won't fall to 1-3. And the Eagles just lost to a bad 38-year-old quarterback, so a good 38-year-old quarterback is that much better off? Cons: Surely a team can't keep losing" is no strategy for this sort of game, and the Eagles are also supposed to be one of the league's better teams.

Minnesota Vikings (vs. Miami)

Model Projection: Vikings 24.32-17.00, Vikings 71.0% win rate Pros: The Vikings have an elite defense and are playing at home, while the Dolphins just lost their one good offensive weapon. Cons: If anything goes wrong with the defense, this offense, with a banged-up Justin Jefferson and an underwhelming-so-far Kyler Murray, might not be enough to carry the day.

Seattle Seahawks (vs. LA Chargers)

Model Projection: Seahawks 24.16-19.33, Seahawks 63.3% win rate Pros: The Seahawks are going to be playing angry coming off their Week 3 loss, while the Chargers already look done. Cons: You would think the Chargers are better than Washington-with-a-backup-QB (right?), and Washington-with-a-backup-QB just beat the Seahawks.

The PickMinnesota Vikings (vs. Miami)

There are some Survivor games where you aren't limited by what winner you can pick, but by what loser. As in, you can pick whoever you want, but you can't just say, OK, I'm taking whoever the worst team is playing every week." This year in particular, that might be a good setup, because taking whoever faces Miami is going to be a very solid pick every week. Especially at home, it's hard to see Miami putting up double-digit points Sunday (I almost said any points," which frankly is also true but feels too mean).

Honorable Mention

Baltimore Ravens (vs. Tennessee) Seattle Seahawks (vs. LA Chargers) - if you didn't use them when I did 2026 record: 1-2 Week 1: Chargers (L) Week 2: Eagles (W) Week 3: Seahawks (L) Week 4: Vikings