Buffalo Bills playoff picture up in the air against Rams in MNF

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 04: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills looks on during the third quarter against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium on October 04, 2026 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Buffalo Bills enter Monday Night Football in a precarious place. Being the last team to play in the week puts them at a disadvantage in the standings because so many AFC teams beat NFC teams on Sunday. With a long list of squads at three wins in the AFC, a Bills win would be a big deal and a loss would be an equally momentous situation.

The Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0 and the only undefeated team in the AFC. They are on a bye in Week 5, so they are a half-game up on the conference no matter what.

The Baltimore Ravens won on Sunday night to join the Jacksonville Jaguars at 4-1 in a tie for second place in the conference. Both pulled out late wins over NFC teams. The Bills need a similar win to keep pace with them.

AFC playoff picture if the Bills win

A Buffalo win secures them as the AFC East leader.

The Chiefs are undefeated. The Ravens are undefeated in the conference. The Jaguars are 3-1. A Bills win keeps them at fourth with a 2-1 AFC record.

AFC playoff picture if the Bills lose

If the Bills lose, they not only fall into the mess at 3-2, they fall behind the New England Patriots in the race for the AFC East thanks to the head-to-head loss last week. Buffalo would be in the muck of Wild Card teams.

In the AFC North, three teams sit at 3-2 with the 4-1 Ravens in front. The Browns, Steelers, and Bengal are all 3-2. The Broncos and Raiders are both 3-2 in the AFC West, as well, with the Bills on the schedule later in the year.

A Bills loss will leave them in a tie for fifth place in the AFC at 3-2 with a 2-1 AFC record. Denver is also 3-2 with a 2-1 AFC record.

AFC playoff picture right now

1. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
2. Baltimore Ravens (4-1, 2-0 AFC)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1, 3-1 AFC)
4. Buffalo Bills (3-1)
5. New England Patriots (3-2, 2-1 AFC)
6. Denver Broncos (3-2, 2-2 AFC)
7. Las Vegas Raiders (3-2, 2-2 AFC)
8. Cleveland Browns (3-2, 1-0 AFCN, 1-2 AFC)
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2, 1-1 AFCN)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (3-2, 0-1 AFCN)
11. New York Jets (2-3, 2-0 AFC)
12. Indianapolis Colts (2-3, 1-3 AFC)
13. Houston Texans (1-4)
14. Miami Dolphins (0-5)
15. Los Angeles Chargers (0-5)
16. Tennessee Titans (0-5)