Early Week 7 NFL betting, odds: 3 wagers that I like right now

The goal of targeting the markets at the beginning of the week is always to find spots that will have closing line value at kickoff, securing positive expected value. I have three spots in the NFL this week where I foresee that happening.

Here are three early Week 7 bets that I have found actionable.

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (-3, 50.5)

The Patriots got a major addition back to their defense last week with star cornerback Christian Gonzalez returning. The defense was already holding firm in his absence, ranking fifth in fewest points allowed at 18.8 per game. The Bears are right behind them, (sixth, allowing 19.8 PPG). This also translates over to total yards allowed, as the Patriots are sixth and the Bears are seventh-best in the NFL. There is a lot of hype around both Caleb Williams, and Drake Maye returning to form over the last few weeks, but I foresee this as more of a defensive matchup.

Williams has had success limiting his turnovers, but that is a bit of a luck-based stat - advanced metrics show he has put the ball at risk more times than have been converted. The Patriots will look to exploit that weakness, something the return of Gonzalez should help with.

With the short preparation time here, I think the defenses have the advantage. Bears head coach Ben Johnson is regarded as the top offensive play-caller, but having less time to prepare specific designed plays should hinder the Bears' offensive success rate. Patriots coach Mike Vrabel, in my opinion, is the best in game manager of his defensive scheme.

I think this total takes a dip, and while we talk about the offenses and quarterbacks, both defenses are being underrated. I will attack the main market here, but Williams under 32.5 pass attempts (+115) is another solid prop angle.

Bet: Under 50.5

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 44.5) vs New Orleans Saints in Paris, France

While the Saints are technically the home team, this is an international game happening in Paris, France. If we were in New Orleans in the Superdome on the fast turf, I think this total would be three points higher. Instead, the wonky start time and concern over field conditions has depressed the total down, making the over an actionable angle.

The Saints, under Kellen Moore, have made it a point of emphasis to play fast. They use no huddle at a high rate and have run the fifth-most offensive snaps in the NFL. The only reason that is not first is because their defense struggles to get off the field. Moore has run an offense with either the most or second-most plays run every season dating back to his time as an offensive coordinator with the Eagles. This has led to the Saints averaging 25.3 PPG (10th) despite a 2-4 record, which also speaks to their defensive woes.

The Steelers under Mike McCarthy have progressed on offense and regressed on defense. One area that highlights this is their run game. They are seventh in offensive run efficiency while also being near top of the league in pass attempts. On defense, they have regressed year over year from a top-five run defense to being slightly below average (17th in rushing yards allowed). Is that partially aging veterans or a downgrade in coaching? Maybe a mixture of both.

There may be be slight rain showers, but no major weather impacts or any sustained winds. Let's take the over now. If the weather clears up, this total will rocket up, with a low chance it drops any further.

Bet: Over 44.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, 42.5)

This bet is a bit narrative focused, but I still think that will impact both the line before kickoff and the play-calling in the game.

Last year's Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker was a big offseason acquisition for the Kansas City Chiefs, and his impact has been felt immediately. Walker leads the NFL in rushing yards (665), is second in the NFL in carries per game (21.2) and is in the top five in touchdowns (1.2). The Chiefs have made him the focal point of the offense.

The Seahawks defense has also been league average against the run, but elite against opponent passing attacks. They allow the 10th-fewest rushing yards, but the fewest total yards because of a stingy pass defense. Kansas City should lean on the run here with Walker because it's what is best for its offense, and what matches up best against Seattle's defense.

Bet Kenneth Walker III to score a touchdown at sportsbooks

Lastly, Andy Reid has been known to exploit the narrative - like when a player returns from injury, he is more likely to get red-zone looks. I think this will translate over to Walker in a revenge game" where the crowd will be excited to see him, and both Reid and Mahomes will be excited to feed him.

Bet: Kenneth Walker anytime TD (-125)