The single currency bloc is facing the deepest recession in memory and unprecedented job losses

With its €130bn stimulus package, Germany is showing others how to do the recovery

Ministers need to follow up emergency scheme with targeted help, says Ed Miliband

Tax and spending measures are designed to provide country with big economic boost

UK firm to axe almost one-in-five jobs to help save £50m as car sales slump during Covid-19 crisisCar dealership Lookers plans to cut 1,500 jobs and close 12 dealerships as it returns to selling and servicing vehicles after the coronavirus shutdown.The group, which operates 164 car dealerships, says the redundancies are needed to protect the long-term future of the business and it hopes to save £50m a year from the job cuts.Related: UK car sales slump as 2,000 workers lose their jobs in Covid-19 crisis – business live Continue reading...

The US has more to lose from rising economic nationalism than some of its politicians realiseThe post-pandemic world economy seems likely to be a far less globalised economy, with political leaders and publics rejecting openness in a manner unlike anything seen since the tariff wars and competitive devaluations of the 1930s. And the byproduct will be not just slower growth but a significant fall in national incomes for all but perhaps the largest and most diversified economies.In his prescient 2001 book The End of Globalisation, the Princeton economic historian Harold James showed how an earlier era of global economic and financial integration collapsed under the pressures of unexpected events during the Great Depression of the 1930s, culminating in the second world war. Today, the Covid-19 pandemic appears to be accelerating another withdrawal from globalisation.Related: Is China overtaking the US as a financial and economic power? Continue reading...

Value of reserves could fall by two-thirds as Covid-19 hastens peak in demand, study shows

Hammond, Osborne and Darling say urgent measures needed to cushion post Covid-19 job losses

Prince of Wales unveils a five-point plan to stimulate sustainable economic growth

Americans already struggling to afford childcare before the pandemic are now facing a more precarious economyThe coronavirus pandemic has laid bare some of the worst inequities in the US, not least the shortcomings in the US childcare system. Thousands of childcare facilities are at risk of permanently closing and Americans already struggling to afford childcare before the pandemic are now facing a more precarious economy.For Tanesha Borgman, a speech pathologist outside of Denver, Colorado, the pandemic has exacerbated an already difficult situation. Borgman has a three-year-old son with special needs who attended pre-school and had a childcare provider come to their home. Continue reading...

Growth often doesn’t benefit the people who need it – a green economy could create 1 million jobsThe UK lockdown might be easing, but the path ahead for the economy will be long and difficult. Unemployment this quarter is likely to rise twice as fast as it did following the global financial crisis. Almost half of businesses that have taken up one of the government’s bounce-back loans do not expect to be able to pay it back.It’s tempting in a crisis to want to do whatever it takes to get economic activity – measured by GDP – back to where it was before. But an overwhelming and singular focus on increasing GDP would be a mistake. GDP figures do not tell us who is benefitting from growth. GDP does not tell us whether environmental resources – and nature – are being dangerously depleted, and does not reflect the value of caring, much of which is performed by women.The recovery must involve a reconsideration of what is valuable in societyRelated: Britons want quality of life indicators to take priority over economy Continue reading...

Deepest monthly price cuts for 15 years as desperate retailers try to encourage consumer spendingBritish retailers struggling during the coronavirus pandemic have cut their prices by the most in a month since 2006, according to industry figures revealing the scale of the economic fallout.The British Retail Consortium (BRC) and Nielsen said shop prices fell by 2.4% in May following a decline of 1.7% in April as people continued to stay away from the high street during lockdown. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as tensions simmer across the US and Hong Kong

Paying off debt should give people more to spend, but the Covid-19 crisis has raised job concerns

Analysts warn of gap between those hit by job losses and those whose finances benefit from enforced spending halt

Unemployment is soaring to levels unseen since the 1930s Great Depression as Congress debates another $3tn aid packageThe ongoing coronavirus pandemic will haunt the US economy for a decade, wiping close to $8tn off economic growth, according to new projections released by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Monday.In a letter to lawmakers CBO director Phillip Swagel projected the virus will reduce US economic output by 3% through 2030, a loss of $7.9tn. Continue reading...

Firm reports ‘a lot of pent up demand’ but more interest in used vehicles than new ones

IHS Markit says worst of downturn is probably over after fall in factory output slows

Evidence from the rest of the world is encouraging, but the PM may regret acting in haste

Paper concludes EU does not have to offer privileges given to others in previous dealsThe EU has no legal duty to grant the UK privileges offered to other countries in trade deals, an internal European parliament paper has concluded ahead of a crucial round of Brexit talks this week.The document, drawn up by officials for the parliament’s UK coordination group, is a short analysis of arguments made by the UK’s chief negotiator, David Frost, in a letter to his counterpart, Michel Barnier. Frost accused the EU of treating the UK as an “unworthy” negotiating partner by denying the UK “the kind of well-precedented arrangements commonplace in modern FTAs [free trade agreements]”.Related: Brexit: UK's smallest firms divert £10bn in exports away from EU Continue reading...

Heathrow, HSBC and National Grid among 200 CEOs calling for a ‘clean, just recovery’Britain’s most powerful business leaders have called on Boris Johnson to set out economic recovery plans that align with the UK’s climate goals to help rebuild a resilient UK economy in the wake of the coronavirus crisis.Almost 200 chief executives – from companies including HSBC, National Grid, and Heathrow airport – signed a letter to the prime minister calling on the government to “deliver a clean, just recovery”. Continue reading...

Disaster capitalists dream of disassembling nation states for post-viral exploitation

Coronavirus has forced Beijing to pause in its relentless pursuit of GDP. Its people, and the environment, will benefit

Companies are ‘jumping before they are pushed’ as fears mount over collapse in trade talksBritain’s smallest companies are “jumping before they are pushed” by diverting £10bn in exports away from the EU as concerns mount over a possible collapse in Brexit trade talks, according to a report.The research from academics at Aston University, which comes before the latest round of Brexit negotiations this week, showed small British firms were ramping up sales to countries in South America and east Asia. Continue reading...

The party’s dealings with finance have always been tricky. These are the three issues the opposition should keep in mindReports in the Financial Times that Labour’s new shadow City minister wants to “repair bridges” with Britain’s financial services industry read oddly to me. I remember accompanying the then shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, on his “tea offensive” meetings with City figures – with the emphasis on the cups of tea and digestive biscuits, rather than the offence.McDonnell had the great advantage of dramatically low expectations among the bigwigs of high finance, who (as he joked to them) would turn up half-expecting to be sent to a re-education camp by the end of the meeting. They actually left, as far as could be told, pleasantly surprised. But behind the joke, and McDonnell’s personal charm, was a serious attempt to address the issue that any Labour shadow chancellor or chancellor will run up against: what is the party’s relationship to finance? Continue reading...

The chancellor now has the option to raise the minimum wage above inflation, but probably won’t take itNews that Rishi Sunak is planning a summer mini-budget conjures up memories of the 1970s when chancellors were constantly forced to respond to the latest economic crisis.Sunak is finding out what it was like to be Tony Barber or Denis Healey, who ran the treasury from 1970 to 1979. To be sure, that decade seems to be a more relevant reference point than the 16 years between 1992 and 2008 when the economy expanded continuously and inflation was low. That now looks like an aberration rather than the start of a new golden age. Continue reading...

The pandemic has revealed the danger of prizing ‘efficiency’ above all else. The recent slowdown in our lives points to another way of doing things

The guru of Brexit and the 2019 election has been exposed. But the economic and social damage is well and truly doneMy father, who was of Irish extraction but hailed from County Durham, used to say: never kick a man when he is down. After the shambles of Mr Dominic Cummings’s recent excursion to Durham, one might be tempted to make an exception to the rule. But there is no need. The prime minister’s once-valued adviser has been kicking himself – but not in the colloquial sense of expressing regret for his actions.Deeper and deeper he dug himself in, as one terminological inexactitude led to another, and the rule-breaker failed lamentably to justify breaking government lockdown instructions for which he was at least in part responsible.Although economically damaging, the lockdown was socially necessary. Britain was not alone Continue reading...

Rishi Sunak’s choice speaks volumes about his view of Britain’s likely pace of recovery

Firms should be made to disclose exposure to global heating, report suggestsEquity markets have generally ignored the increasing number of natural disasters over the past 50 years and tougher rules are needed to make investors aware of the dangers posed by the climate crisis, the International Monetary Fund has said.Companies should be forced to disclose their exposure to climate risk because a voluntary approach does not go far enough, the IMF said in a chapter from its latest global financial stability report (GFSR). Continue reading...

Chancellor says businesses will be meeting 20% of wage bill for 8.4m workers by October

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, amid heightened tensions between the US and China

Lockdown is likely to go down in history as the UK’s most costly policy failure of modern times

Almost half of firms surveyed by lobby group are considering cutting jobs

The Covid-19 outbreak has left some struggling to pay bills, while others wallow in spare cashYears ago I wrote about Buy Nothing Day, an attempt by US campaigners to encourage us not to indulge in pointless consumerism, just for one day a year. It was widely mocked at the time. Now, for many people, it feels like Buy Nothing Day every day.When was the last time you filled up the car? Bought a train ticket? Paid an air fare? Ordered a new sofa? Or even just bought a latte or booked the cinema? Days now go by when I do not spend one pence. And I know I’m far from alone. Figures emerging across Europe reveal that forced saving is happening on an unprecedented scale. Continue reading...

Despite World Bank figures, the US remains far ahead of China in the metric that countsThe World Bank’s International Comparison Program has just released its latest measures of price levels and GDP across 176 countries – and the results are striking. For the first time, the ICP finds that China’s total real (inflation-adjusted) income is slightly larger than that of the US. In purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, China’s 2017 GDP was $19.617tn (£15.7tn), whereas the US’s stood at $19.519tnOf course, when China’s total income is divided by its massive population, the picture changes. Although China’s per capita income has pulled ahead of Egypt’s, it remains in the middle of the pack globally, behind Brazil, Iran, Thailand and Mexico.Related: Lack of international cooperation will hinder economic recovery | Howard Davies Continue reading...

Labour wants hard-hit industries protected as employers warn of major redundancies

Trump, Bolsonaro and Putin have taken a cynical political gamble with the lives of citizens

The bloc is showing the way in rebuilding coronavirus-ravaged economies to fight the climate emergency

It is better for Bank to risk too much stimulus rather than too little, says Michael Saunders

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, after US data showed another 2.1 million workers filed for unemployment benefits last week

More than 40m Americans have filed for unemployment in two months, and many are struggling to make ends meetSandra Rivera Del Valle, a cabin cleaner with airline contractor Eulen America at Orlando airport in Florida, started experiencing cold-like symptoms on 13 March. As a cancer survivor over the age of 60, she was advised by her doctor to quarantine for two weeks as a precaution, as she was unable to get tested for Covid-19.Related: Extra $600 in jobless pay offers many a lifeline – but will it be renewed?I don’t have income. I don’t know how to pay my mortgage next month. I don’t have money for food, bills, utilities Continue reading...

Covid generation of under-25s less likely to fulfil potential, regardless of background

Rishi Sunak must avoid free-market ideology. The government reducing support to workers too early would be disastrous

There has been no consistency to the regulatory changes during the coronavirus crisisThe years after the 2007-09 global financial crisis were characterised by an orgy of rule-making by financial regulators around the world to address the weaknesses exposed by the upheavals. Importantly, a renamed and reinforced Financial Stability Board (FSB), reporting to a series of G20 summits, oversaw the process of reregulation.Despite the economic impact of the measures and the complexity of making rules to suit the needs of different financial systems, a remarkable degree of consistency was achieved. While the US had never fully implemented the Basel II framework, Basel III – featuring, for example, higher reserve requirements – found its way, in more or less recognisable form, into the rulebooks of all the different US banking regulators.Related: How to avoid a W-shaped global coronavirus recession Continue reading...

Shops shutting, jobs lost, landlords wiped out. The future of our community hubs looks bleakRarely does a cabinet minister salivate in public over fast food but on hearing yesterday that chicken chain Nando’s is reopening dozens of branches, Rishi Sunak could not stop himself. “The good news we’ve all been waiting for,” the chancellor tweeted, his jauntiness somewhat out of place with a thoroughly bleak situation. He may hanker after a peri-peri hit, but the government hungers for something else besides: for normal life to resume, complete with its high-street staples. One way Boris Johnson sought to leaven his terrible week was to announce the reopening next month of all “non-essential” shops. Leave aside the dangers of doing so without anything like a mass test-and-trace regime in place, and the prime minister is still likely to be sorely disappointed.Some shops will never pull up their shutters again. By the time the retail lockdown ends, most will have been closed for 12 weeks, costing the industry over £21bn in lost sales, even before adding in overheads such as rent and staff costs. Longstanding retailers Oasis, Cath Kidston and Warehouse are all shutting down, while others, including John Lewis, have warned they may close branches. Those that do open their doors will find trading tricky. Clothes boutiques may not offer fitting rooms, bookshops may discourage browsing and all will have to maintain a decent distance between customers. For a very long time to come, shopping will not be normal. Continue reading...

Our analysis looks at growth and jobs, and the effect of the pandemic on businessesUK economy faces longer and slower recovery from Covid

Data shows we have passed the worst of the crisis in terms of damage to jobs and growth

As the UK enters the second phase of the pandemic, we stand ready to do more to support households and businessesCovid-19 recovery will be tough, warns Bank of England governor

Andrew Bailey, writing in the Guardian, hints a new round of money creation will be neededSpeedy action by the Bank of England during Covid-19 is working