Exclusive: 100bn-a-year cost of obesity to UK makes clear economic case for use of drugs such as Ozempic, says reportSpiralling healthcare costs and productivity losses from the global obesity crisis far outstrip the cost of new weight-loss drugs, according to a report, which also calls on governments to prioritise prevention by promoting a healthy diet and exercise.In the UK, Germany and the Netherlands, there is a clear economic case for these medications, the report says, as the annual cost of the diabetes drug Ozempic is lower than the cost of additional healthcare needed by people with obesity. The cost of the weight-loss injection Wegovy is higher, but still dwarfed by the overall economic cost to society of obesity, according to the research by ING Bank, shared with the Guardian. Continue reading...

Before first conference speech by a Labour chancellor for 15 years, downbeat tune may have been overcookedAs the last Labour chancellor to address the party's annual conference, Alistair Darling had plenty to be downbeat about. This time 15 years ago, the global financial system was in meltdown, Britain was heading for its deepest recession since the second world war, and Labour was bracing for electoral defeat.This year, after ending more than a decade in the political wilderness in July's election landslide, Rachel Reeves ought to be taking the conference stage in Liverpool on Monday with a spring in her step as Darling's first Labour successor. Continue reading...

The former top civil servant at the Department for International Development has warned a lack of oversight in spending echoes corrupt contracts awarded during CovidThe billions of pounds spent on housing asylum seekers is ripe for the kind of scam and scandal" that emerged in the contracts awarded during the Covid pandemic, the Observer has been told.A crippling collapse of the systems and expertise monitoring the use of Britain's aid budget over several years means that there has been a dangerous lack of oversight of the 4.3bn spent annually on asylum seekers in the UK, according to a damning assessment of Whitehall's control over the spending. Continue reading...

Amid rising costs and a lack of productivity in the construction sector, some say relaxing building standards could help. But others aren't convinced

Labour's talk is all of tax rises and spending cuts. When will we see growth? You can order your own copy of this cartoon Continue reading...

With petrol prices and inflation both low, motorists can absorb a reversing of Sunak's 5p cut - and it could even boost electric car salesA chancellor desperate for ready cash, as Rachel Reeves finds herself, has one immediate source of new funds: increasing the tax on petrol again.More than 14 years have passed since fuel duty was last increased, in 2010. That's a legacy of concessions by the Conservatives to the car lobby. Now it's time to tell drivers that the days of annual freezes are over, and that the UK's car mileage tax needs to be higher to reduce emissions and limit climate change. Continue reading...

Bank of England may have kept rates steady this week but TSB, NS&I and others have all announced cutsInterest rates may have been kept on hold this week, but the direction of travel is clearly downwards, with savers being urged to check the returns they are getting and switch to a better deal now if their rate isn't competitive.On Thursday, the Bank of England kept its base rate at 5% after cutting it in August, though many economists think there will be another cut, to 4.75%, at the next meeting on 7 November, plus maybe a few more next year. However, the painful" budget taking place on 30 October adds a fair bit of uncertainty to the mix. Continue reading...

Ruling out of rises to four main taxes could lead chancellor to make economically damaging' decisions, says thinktankRachel Reeves has one hand tied behind her back" as she considers how to balance the books next month in her first budget, a leading economic thinktank has said, after she ruled out increases to the four main taxes that account for 75% of all revenues.The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said Labour had promised not to raise income tax, national insurance, VAT or corporation tax before the budget, heightening speculation that Reeves will seek to increase revenues from rises in capital gains tax, inheritance tax and stamp duty on property sales. Continue reading...

Consumers are nervously awaiting the budget, reports data provider GfK, while national debt hits highest level since 1960s

Debt pile increases by 4.3 percentage points in year to August, adding to challenge for chancellor Rachel Reeves

Concerns over government plans wipe out progress made this year to rebuild household morale

A radical rebrand will get people off benefits and into training and work. The system must be robust, but also humaneJobcentres are the least well-used" and least well-loved" of all public services, a failure at the heart of the economy that helps account for the biggest contraction in the workforce since the 1980s. So said the employment minister, Alison McGovern, as she launched a report from the Institute for Employment Studies, a commission she worked with closely. It makes a fierce critique of the system as it stands. She packs a punch, rejecting a system in which all the blame falls on the individual and that ignores social obstacles: the millions of people waiting for NHS treatment, the absence of childcare, the lack of buses to work, age discrimination, and punitive jobcentre work coaches instructed to push people into any old job", however dead-end and insecure.Promising a radical culture change", which will re-badge the government's approach as a jobs and careers service, McGovern will throw the doors open for all. By only taking benefit claimants, jobcentres have had a stigma that deters employers as well as jobseekers. Work coaches will become advisers, trained to offer universal careers guidance. There may even be hot drinks, making this a service based more on tea and sympathy than fear and sanctions (stopping benefits). Yes, there will always be conditionality", but watch the balance shift rapidly towards help. Here's how bad it is: half a million people who are in employment currently have to attend a jobcentre every week to prove they spent 35 hours either working or seeking more hours or better-paid jobs; their partners are called in to attest to their own job-seeking. Abandon that compulsion on the already employed and 2,500 advisers will be freed up to offer deeper, better consultations - finding options, easing obstacles, offering training - with less time spent policing benefits.Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...

S&P 500 climbs 1.7% for highest close since July, while Dow Jones and Nasdaq also welcome risesWall Street scaled all-time highs on Thursday as global markets welcomed the US Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in four years.The benchmark S&P 500 climbed 1.7% to close at its first record high since July. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.3% and also hit a record. The technology-focused Nasdaq Composite rallied by 2.5%. Continue reading...

Bank voted on Thursday not to change borrowing costs - but Andrew Bailey says cuts likely to resumeThe governor of the Bank of England has signalled readiness to resume interest rate cuts despite keeping borrowing costs unchanged on Thursday at 5%, amid concerns over lingering high inflation.Andrew Bailey said the central bank was now gradually on the path down" from borrowing costs that were among the highest since before the 2008 financial crisis. I think interest rates are going to come down, I'm optimistic on that front," he said. Continue reading...

Cautious Bank of England governor says we need to be careful not to cut too fast or by too much", after leaving borrowing costs unchanged in 8-1 vote

Opposition disputes costings in study and accuses authors of cherrypicking worst-case scenario projects' from around the world

CPI rise is below expectations for second month running, but Bank knows headline figure is far from the whole story

Annual rate in August unchanged, and hovering above Bank of England's 2% target

Increase of 11% in a year far outstrips grocery inflation in UK, according to the consumer group Which?Shoppers may face a choccy horror show this Halloween after the price of chocolate shot up 11% in the past year - far outstripping increases for other foods across UK supermarkets.Britons opening their doors to trick-or-treaters could decide to cut back on spending for 31 October, as the cost of chocolate rose sharply in the year to the end of August, way above wider grocery inflation of 2.7% over the same period, according to research by the consumer group Which? Continue reading...

Institute for Employment Studies says UK has 800,000 fewer people in work or looking for work since before CovidThe UK has suffered the biggest contraction in its workforce since the 1980s, costing the public finances at least 16bn a year in lost tax receipts, according to a study.Hundreds of thousands of people have quit the labour market since the pandemic and never returned, undermining the strength of the economy and leaving the government out of pocket, according to the Institute for Employment Studies.The UK is one of the only countries in the developed world to have seen employment fall post-pandemic: slipping from having the eighth-highest employment rate in the world to 15th.The reduction can be blamed on fewer people entering work in recent years rather than more people leaving it, with 90% of the growth in economic inactivity" due to more people off work for at least four years or who have never worked at all.The solution to the crisis could include reforming employment support to guarantee help for those who need it; ending the compliance culture' in jobcentres; and creating new Labour Market Partnerships to meet local priorities and join up delivery. Continue reading...

EU-UK trade deal continues to hurt trade with 27% drop in exports since 2021 reports Aston University

ITV's political editor has helped explain our national crises, from the 2008 financial crash onwards. Could he also help solve them?

Alan Ereira suggests using the increase in value of Britain's gold reserves to boost welfare payments to its poorest peopleWe are told that the country is so poor that we have to keep the two-child benefit cap and take the winter fuel allowance away from pensioners who are not on certain benefits (Winter fuel: 780,000 UK pensioners entitled to payment will lose it, 14September).Those just over the cutoff point will lose out although they are desperately hard up. This imposes the burden of our debt on the frailest, keeps child and pensioner poverty high, and has a knock-on effect in reducing our capacity to grow the economy. Continue reading...

Steps are now being taken to reduce headcount at Harland & Wolff, as board concludes the company is insolvent

Experts say baffling' lack of equivalent to fuel duty means motorists are more strongly taxed than private jet ownersCampaigners have urged the chancellor to start taxing jet fuel - with a report showing that charging duty at the same rate paid by motorists would raise up to 6bn a year for the public finances.An analysis by the thinktank Transport & Environment (T&E) UK said introducing a fair" equivalent to the fuel duty paid in other sectors could raise between 400m and 5.9bn a year, based on the 11m tonnes of kerosene consumed by planes taking off from the UK in 2023. Continue reading...

Thinktank says with up to 40% of staff on track for inadequate funds even 16-year-olds should be signed upEmployees as young as 16 should be automatically enroled into workplace pensions and there is a strong case for making their employers pay in even when they do not contribute themselves, according to a leading thinktank.The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has warned that many current workers are on track for inadequate retirement incomes", with between 30% and 40% of private sector workers, 5 to 7 million people, likely to fall short of what is needed for a minimum standard of living. Continue reading...

Keir Starmer made exacting promises on borrowing. Now he either breaks them - or makes more cuts and bleeds popularityMost Labour MPs would not have wanted 1.6m pensioners with disabilities to lose their winter fuel payments because of government cuts. But they didn'tknow, because a partial assessment of the measure's impact was only released on Friday evening, three days after they voted on it in the House of Commons. Last month the chancellor claimed spending cuts were not the choices I wanted to make or expected to make". The result has been to suck buoyancy out of a government still less than 100 days old, and to boost the morale of its critics, including theReform party.As winter sets in and fuel bills go up, many people will go cold or hungry or both. Opponents of this government, in parliament and the press, will maintain a laser-like focus on pensioners suffering because they've lost their fuel allowance. Ministers can expect their expense claims to be scrutinised to see how much they've received for heating their homes. It's a good thing SirKeir Starmer is reconciled to being unpopular, because his approval ratings are unlikely to pick up much this side of Christmas.Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here. Continue reading...

Action is needed to restore the damage done by the Tories to Britain's international reputationDomestic issues have dominated in the two months or so since the general election. Much of the talk has been of holes in the public finances, the dire state of the NHS, and the early release of prisoners to prevent jails overflowing.That's not to say there has been no attention paid to foreign affairs. Labour has pledged continuing support for Ukraine and suspended 30 arms export licences to Israel. Keir Starmer has sought to burnish links with the US and to reset relations between Britain and the EU. Continue reading...

The move is widely expected - but will still be studied closely as dark clouds loom on the US horizonEconomic moments are often forecast with great certainty, but few will have been as widely expected as an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve this week.Analysts have included a reduction in the cost of borrowing by the US central bank in their forecasts for more than a month and investors have placed their bets accordingly. Continue reading...

The anniversary of Norman Lamont's failure is a timely reminder to Labour not to have its fiscal agenda set by the oppositionMonday will be the 32nd anniversary of Black Wednesday. For younger readers, and older ones with ailing memories, Black Wednesday, on 16 September 1992, was the day the Tories lost their reputation for economic competence.True, they had lost it once before, when the Heath government of 1970-74 fell victim to the inflationary impact of the 1973-74 oil crisis, their economic boom that got out of control, and what became known as the disaster of the three-day week. Continue reading...

PM told his downbeat tone risks putting off investors and that his conference speech must temper realism with hopeThe government's gloomy diagnosis of the state of Britain is imperilling the private investment needed to secure economic growth, City figures are warning, amid widespread calls for Keir Starmer to inject more optimism in his Labour conference speech later this month.The prime minister has spent his first months in power setting out the dire inheritance his party has been left by the outgoing Conservative government, most notably a 22bn black hole left in the public finances this year. The forthcoming spending review is set to uncover an even bigger shortfall over the next two years. Continue reading...

We are ready to get back to the table to reach a new agreement," Boeing pledges, as walkout over pay deal beginsBeijing's finance ministry has imposed a six-month business suspension on PwC's auditing unit in mainland China over the auditing of Evergrande.PwC has also been hit with financial penalties totalling around 47m.The ministry also imposed a fine of 116 million yuan (12m) on PwC Zhong Tian LLP, the registered accounting entity and the main onshore arm of PwC in China, according to a statement on the MOF website.China's securities regulator said in a separate statement that it confiscated the unit's revenue involved in the Evergrande case totalling 27.7 million yuan (3m) and fined the unit 297 million yuan (32m). Continue reading...

Pimlico Plumbers founder Charlie Mullins has had it up to here with the UK's taxes, and he is determined to make sure every one of us knows itAlways intriguing to watch the emergence of a new publicity circuit, so the warmest of welcomes to the loose collective of multimillionaires currently using their well-earned platforms to announce their imminent departure from the UK. If their number has an indisputable star at the moment, it is the Pimlico Plumbers founder Charlie Mullins, who resembles the world's oldest boyband member, and sports so much dermal filler that I can only assume that even he lacks the drain rods to address it. Goes without saying I have always had a HUGE amount of time for him. Charlie claims to often" be mistaken for Rod Stewart, presumably by moles or pavement satirists.But you may recognise him from various legal challenges to Brexit, and - last year - the suggestion that someone should kill" London's Muslim mayor", Sadiq Khan. Back during the Brexit years, Mullins declared: Nobody can tell me to shut the window on 500 million customers in the EU, and 225bn worth of trade." Then, this year, he opted to throw his lot in with Nigel Farage's Reform party. Please, please don't try to rationalise it! Just let it flood your home like an uninsured act of God.Marina Hyde is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...

Protest letter sent to fund's head over move to send staff to Moscow for first review since invasion of UkraineThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) will send staff to Moscow next week to review the Russian economy for the first time since the invasion of Ukraine, in a move that has prompted anger and dismay across European capitals.Officials of the Washington-based organisation will travel to the Russian capital and meet stakeholders" before publishing an assessment of the economy and providing recommendations about how the Kremlin might improve its economic handling and tackle issues such as the climate crisis. Continue reading...

European Central Bank makes 0.25-point cut as expected after eurozone inflation fell to 2.2% in AugustThe European Central Bank has lowered interest rates for the second time this year, as it warned that economic growth in the eurozone will be weaker than it had hoped.The ECB's governing council decided to lower its deposit rate - paid to banks that make overnight deposits with the Eurosystem - by a quarter of a percentage point, from 3.75% to 3.5%, on Thursday. Continue reading...

A 17-year-old male was detained last week on suspicion of Computer Misuse Act offences in relation to the attack launched on TfL on 1 September.

OBR report is not all doom and gloom, but preventing debt rising to 274% of GDP would require tough action

Public finances under pressure from ageing population, climate crisis and security risks, OBR report says

Chancellor says revision of how much lenders must set aside to cope with future crises will bolster growth

Using inflation as cover, companies have raised prices of everyday household items to rake in record profits at the expense of American familiesOver the past few years, Erin Wiggle has approached every trip to the grocery store with a sense of dread. During each visit, the retired army veteran, small business owner and mother from Worcester Township, Pennsylvania, has seen her budget stretched thinner and thinner as prices keep ratcheting up for the goods her family relies on. Erin's burden has grown heavier despite pandemic-related supply chain issues subsiding, and she has a growing sense that the companies making the products she needs are padding their profits at the expense of her family.Erin is right. Under the cover of inflation, companies have raised the prices of everyday household items to rake in record profits at the expense of American families. As my investigation into what I've called greedflation" shows, from mid-2020 to mid-2022, corporate profits rose by 75% - five times as fast as inflation. In fact, corporate profits jumped so much that they played a major role in causing inflation - according to the Federal Reserve, corporate profits accounted for all the inflation from July 2020 through July 2021 and 41% of all inflation from July 2020 through July 2022. Continue reading...

UK government's 500m taxpayer-backed deal for steelworks secures long-term future of Port Talbot but unable to secure guarantees to save 2,500 jobs

Pre-election slowdown continues in July despite economists predicting growth of 0.2%

The notorious syndrome causes chancellors to demand savings that look ingenious but really aren't. No 10 must be vigilantAn unwritten law of Westminster mechanics states that power, in the absence of a countervailing force, gravitates to the Treasury.The governing agenda can be set in No 10, but a prime minister has few instruments of control as immediate and far-reaching as the purse strings in a chancellor's hand.Rafael Behr is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...

Statistics show 16- to 24-year-olds out of work at highest level since pandemic, a rise of almost 50% in two yearsYouth unemployment has risen to a post-pandemic high as unions warned that young people's futures are on the line" amid a widespread struggle to find a job.Official figures showed youth employment has reached its highest level in more than three years. There were 597,000 young people aged 16 to 24 who were unemployed in May to July 2024, an increase of 51,000 from the previous year, according to figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Continue reading...

Brent crude has hit its lowest level since December 2021

Level looks poised to rise to 230 a week from April 2025 as a result of government formula

Likely 4% pension rise next year could help defuse row facing chancellor over winter fuel payment

Average earnings including bonuses in three months to July - used to calculate the triple lock - grew by 4%

Peers said they were raising a big red flag' and tough choices will be neededThe pressing risk of the national debt becoming unsustainable will force Britain into the unenviable choice of paying higher taxes or the state doing less, a House of Lords committee has warned.A report by peers said tough decisions and a new set of rules for the public finances were needed in order to put debt - currently just under 100% of annual national income - on a decisive downward path. Continue reading...

As the TUC annual conference begins, new figures from the UN show why productivity growth doesn't naturally benefit everyoneWithin a hundred years," wrote John Maynard Keynes in 1930, humanity's economic problem" - the requirement to work to produce the goods and services that sustain us - would be resolved. In his essay Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren he said the standard of life in progressive countries ... will be between four and eight times as high as it is today". The productivity gains, Keynes thought, would mean people's material needs would be satisfied. Their dilemma would be how to spend their free time. Some people were stubborn, he accepted, and would still work three hours a day", but both the poor and the rich would enjoy such wealth that this would become unnecessary.History suggests Keynes got it wrong. While workers in the industrialised nations have seen the length of their average working week drop by more than a fifth in the past century, they are still working about 40hours. Globally, says the UN's International Labour Organization (ILO), men are working 46 hours a week. This hardly fulfils Keynes's vision of a future global economy distinguished by leisure and abundance. Perhaps he underestimated the human preference to consume rather than relax and unwind. Continue reading...