Is RBS right to forecast doom and gloom for the global economy?

Royal Bank of Scotland economists say the global economy is in for a very gloomy year indeed. Here's what five economists think

Royal Bank of Scotland has warned of a "cataclysmic year" for the global economy, triggered by a slowdown in China, as it urged investors to liquidate all assets apart from high-quality bonds. The Guardian asked several economists whether they agreed with the bank's gloomy outlook.

Related: Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economists

The message from RBS is one of panic, which I don't think is justified by current events. I'm worried about the outlook for the global economy, but not yet panicked.

Sure, the economic indicators point to things being not so good. For instance, a sharp slowdown in China is not good for the UK, the US or Europe, because it puts a drag on growth. In that sense the impact is significant. However, it is not a disaster.

We do not dispute that China will have a hard landing. It is something we have been warning about since 2009 and certain about since 2012. It is heading for 2% GDP growth and possibly lower, not the published 7%.

But most people, including RBS, are overestimating the impact of China on the rest of the world. It will have a negligible effect in terms of growth in the developed world. In terms of inflation, it will have profound consequences through lower commodity and oil prices. It will also harm UK and western manufactured exports as China's goods become cheaper and ultimately force workers in industries that compete with China to accept lower wages.

The start of the year has been characterised by growing fears about the global economy and an associated rise in risk aversion, despite very little in fact changing in terms of the hard economic data.

All of the current concerns, from worries about China's debt to higher US interest rates, the winding down of central bank largesse and collapsing commodity prices, have been nagging away over much of the past year. However, it seems that optimism that the global economy can weather these headwinds is finally giving way.

If you look hard enough you can always find somebody telling you markets are about to crash, but they are normally wrong. Historically equities have been the best asset class over the long term - listening to the doom-mongers has been a mistake.

Today's disappointing industrial production figures suggest the [UK] economy slowed toward the end of 2015, and is still heavily reliant on consumer spending. However, growth is steady (if unspectacular), the labour market continues to show encouraging signs and interest rates look unlikely to rise any time soon.

This is a scary warning from RBS but it doesn't seem sensible to spook investors. As Keynes made clear consumer and business confidence matters - he called them animal spirits. Volatility is high but a great collapse doesn't seem to be in the air. It doesn't make sense to talk down markets as that can become self- fulfilling.

The year started badly in stock markets around the world as China looked to be in free fall. Things look a little better now. The worry for the UK is that the government failed to fix the roof when the sun was shining over the last five years or so. Even the chancellor has pointed to a cocktail of risks in direct contrast to his position at the autumn statement in November. The concern is that the economy is at a turning point. We shall see. There are tough days ahead but there is no reason to panic. Not yet anyway.