George Osborne's budget surplus plan is based on too many leaps of faith

The IFS says the chancellor's plan to turn a deficit into a surplus is good politics but bad government, especially given the reliance on tax receipts and oil prices

The last time the government showed a determination to turn a budget deficit into a surplus it was the mid-1990s. Ken Clarke was the chancellor and it was, he said, the responsible thing to do in the wake of the debts racked up following the 1990 recession.

George Osborne also wants to achieve surplus, and one trend that could help him is the low oil price. If there was one overriding feature in the 1990s that kept the global economy growing and the tax receipts rolling in, apart from the giddy tech boom, it was oil at $12 a barrel.

Related: IFS says Osborne faces tough choices to hit deficit target