Treasury's Brexit analysis: how George got his magic number

4,300 lost to each household and 36bn black hole in tax receipts - but how did the Treasury work out its claims?

The headline figure that George Osborne will want voters to take away from the Treasury's Brexit analysis, published on Monday, is 4,300 - the long-term loss to the economy per household from a vote to leave the EU, it claims.

The chancellor will also want the public to remember the 36bn black hole in tax receipts the Treasury has forecast as the cost of going it alone. There will doubtless be many reminders between now and 23 June that those billions amount to 8p on the basic rate of tax.