Pound and shares soar as Brexit fears ease – as it happened
Biggest one-day jump for the pound since 2008, as the FTSE 100 surges by more than 3%
- More than 47bn wiped on to leading UK index
- The pound is on track for best day since 2009
- Polls show Remain coming back
- EU referendum live: Farage accuses Cameron of trying to exploit Jo Cox's death to help Remain
5.54pm BST
But here's the key question:
Big rally in Europe today. Equity markets shrugging off #Brexit fears. But will it last? pic.twitter.com/XjnmIhk2cL
5.27pm BST
Volatility surrounding this week's vote on whether the UK leaves the European Union has continued, with shares and the pound surging on signs that the Remain camp was regaining lost ground, recovering from their recent slump.
The FTSE 100 saw 47.5bn added to the value of the UK's top companies, with the index up more than 3% - its biggest daily rise since February.
4.53pm BST
Jasper Lawler, market analyst at CMC Markets, said:
Global markets have had a Bremain bounce. A new optimistic tone has taken hold at the beginning of the final week before the Brexit referendum. A phone poll from Survation and an internet poll from YouGov showing a lead for the Remain side has prompted a perception that the Brexit tide has turned.
A change in bookmaker's odds in favour of the UK remaining in the EU has been another contributor to fading fears of a Brexit in financial markets.
4.39pm BST
The FTSE 100 has closed 3% higher at 6204.00 after the latest polls suggested that the chances of the UK voting to leave the European Union had receded somewhat.
This is the biggest one day rise since 12 February this year, although the index has come off its best levels of the day, when it saw the largest daily increase since last August.
4.12pm BST
Sterling is now 2.3% higher against the dollar, trading around $1.47, its highest level since January this year.
3.25pm BST
Buy oil if the UK votes for Brexit, according to Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Nordic Bank SEB:
Last week we saw a taste of what might happen to markets if the UK votes to exit the EU. Along a broad based sell-off across markets, Brent crude sold 11% off from the recent peak of $52.86 a barrel to a low last week of $46.94. There was a clear exit from long speculative positions and an increase in short positions in WTI crude [the US benchmark].
In the event of a Brexit, we expect Brent to sell down to between $40 a barrel and $45, which would be a great buying opportunity. The sharp rebound in the oil price during the last two days is a good indication of the solid appetite for buying oil whenever it drops below $50 a barrel. While a Brexit would be damaging for the Brent crude price in the short term, we think that its impact on oil demand would only be marginally negative. While overall sentiment in financial markets could be depressed for quite some time, the supply/demand balance for oil would not be impacted very much.
3.15pm BST
On Wall Street, the market has now indeed settled down, and the optimism continues.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now up 252 points or 1.4%, while European markets are holding on to the bulk of their gains.
3.10pm BST
Carmaker Nissan has said it will take legal action against the official Leave campaign for using its logo in a leaflet calling on voters to back Brexit. Reuters reports:
On one "Vote Leave" flyer, the firm's logo appeared next to those of four other major companies including Unilever and fellow carmaker Vauxhall with the message: "Major employers ... have all said they'll stay in the UK whatever the result of the referendum."
Nissan, which says it would prefer Britain to remain in the EU, said it would be issuing legal proceedings on Monday in Britain's High Court to stop 'Vote Leave' from using its name and logo and to "prevent them making any further false statements and misrepresentations concerning Nissan.
3.03pm BST
Polls show #Remain back in the lead, #Sterling surges as #Brexit looks less likely. #euref #GBP #GBPUSD (1/2) pic.twitter.com/9VHZ4b090w
2.32pm BST
America's stock market is joining the global rally, as nerves over Thursday's EU referendum recede.
1.56pm BST
More analysts are predicting today that 'don't-know' voters will decide to back the status quo in Thursday's referendum.
The British public is risk-averse and, absent a well-articulated plan for EU exit, is still more likely to opt for the status quo than a leap into the unknown. Historical analysis of six previous referenda in the UK (most prominently on the Alternative Voting system, devolution and Scottish independence) since 1975 show a tendency for a hefty swing towards the status quo in the run-up to polling day - a trend we are beginning to see from this weekend's polling.
The momentum has changed, and perhaps this is the first sign of what a lot of the polling experts had been suggesting,which is that the 'don't know' portion was going to be crucial and historically there tends to be a shift towards the status quo in the final days before a referendum.
I think that's what the market is reacting to."
1.35pm BST
The stock market rally is hitting new heights, driving the FTSE 100 index up by 200 points today to 6223.
Unless the mood changes, we could be looking at the biggest one-day leap in 10 months.
1.26pm BST
City expert Louise Cooper has cautioned against assuming that the EU referendum is now "in the bag" for the Remain campaign.
She says:
Firstly, it should be no surprise to read that markets get things wrong.
Secondly this move is driven by computer trading, with computer algorhythms driving the move higher. As various technical levels are breached, more buy orders come in and momentum gathers. The "real players" in the market - corporates and pension funds - are mostly on the side lines....
The pound has moved from buying one dollar forty cents on the lows of Thursday to buying $1.46 now...
As one FX strategist said to me this morning: "I'd normally expect to see that size of move in a month".
1.19pm BST
Ladbrokes and William Hill have also cut their odds on Remain winning Thursday's vote (meaning they see it as more likely)
William Hill extending latest EU referendum odds: 1/4 remain, 3/1 leave
1.07pm BST
The Brexit referendum is already the biggest political betting event in Betfair's history (it was founded in 1999).
Betfair spokesperson Naomi Totten reports that more than 40m has now been staked on the result, including one 315,000 wager on Remain.
"With just three days left until the vote the Betfair market momentum is now all behind Remain, which was backed as low as 1/5 this morning, with one customer backing it to the tune of 100k.
This market continues to mimic the pattern of the Scottish Referendum, where historical confidence in the eventual 'No' vote slipped slightly ten days before referendum day only to resettle in the week of the vote."
Less than 41m has been matched on Betfair Brexit. but people who manage billions are taking it as gospel.
1.04pm BST
City investment management company Charles Stanley has warned customers that they could find it harder to trade on Friday morning.
They believe there will be massive demand to buy and sell shares and currencies, as the referendum result becomes clear.
This Thursday - June 23rd2016 - the country goes to the polls to decide on Britain's future in Europe. It is a simple 'yes' or 'no' vote but we are expecting considerable volumes being traded through the Charles Stanley Direct platform as investors react to the news.
Whatever the results, we anticipate that we may experience higher volumes and more market volatility than usual on the 23rd June and in the days following the vote. The immediate impact is likely to be felt most directly by those of you wishing to trade shares during such market conditions.
12.32pm BST
Here's the best-performing major shares in London this lunchtime:
12.18pm BST
Time for a catch-up.
"Today's markets opened with a strong risk-on sentiment as news over the weekend suggests that the Remain camp is gaining momentum in the UK ahead of this week's EU referendum".
Wow. 4.4 now. Brexit now a 23% chance. pic.twitter.com/dHnvpaCqEm
'Waves from the Brexit vote are buffeting the UK stock market, tossing it up and down as the opinion polls shift this way and that. Until the vote is over we can expect more price swings, as markets struggle to price in a unique event that carries with it such a high degree of uncertainty.
If you want to get an idea of what stocks will do well in the event of a vote to stay in the UK, it's worth taking a look at today's FTSE leader board. The market has clearly identified financials and house builders as beneficiaries of a vote to remain in the UK, with a Sterling rally also indicating how the currency might move if we vote to remain in Europe.
11.55am BST
Here's a handy chart, showing how the share prices of Europe's largest 600 companies (dark blue) have tracked the twists and turns in the EU referendum race.
Europe's stock markets rise and fall with the odds on a #UKreferendum #Remain vote - @Reuters #Brexit #EUref #oil pic.twitter.com/5gLUIsUiGx
11.29am BST
The latest opinion polls are prompting some international investors to readjust their views on the EU referendum - for the second time this month.
Initially, the City had broadly expected the Remain campaign to win the vote, before polls in early June showed Leave taking the lead.
"We were steering into a clear Brexit scenario and now we've seen a counter move which makes it more balanced, more in line with what investors thought in the first place. "
The bias in the city has generally been that a Remain vote is more likely, but polls pointing otherwise meant that assertion needed to be hedged. The unusually large jump in Sterling on Monday is in part, those hedges being unwound.
European equity markets are rallying this morning. Not impressed by #Brexit risk. pic.twitter.com/tCItjrIC7J
10.21am BST
The US stock market is also expected to open strongly, in around four hours time:
DJIA points to 200-point gain as polls show Brexit support weakening https://t.co/yJ2n03TYcx
10.14am BST
The rally is gathering pace, as investors worldwide shake off their recent fears.
After two hours of trading, the FTSE 100 is up a mighty 160 points, or 2.5%, at 6181.
It is clear that the 'remain' campaign has suffered from a distinct lack of a positive message, with critics accusing the campaign leaders of fearmongering.
However, in some ways, it took the tragic death of Jo Cox for people to wake up to the positive message that she purveyed on the benefits of integration and tolerance. Perhaps it is a coincidence, but that incident has seemingly formed a turning point for the 'remain' campaign, with the improved fortunes of both polls and the pound ever since.
Related: EU referendum morning briefing: parliament recalled to pay tribute to Jo Cox
9.41am BST
The head of Germany's BGA trade federation has declared that Brexit would be a 'catastrophe' for Europe's economy.
"A Brexit would lead to uncertainty and a loss of trust over several years. This is poison for the economy in Britain, but also for Europe as a whole.
Nobody will benefit from an exit. On the contrary, it would be a catastrophe for everybody and especially for us in Germany. There will be no winners, but only losers."
Unprecedented 10 Nobel Prize winning economists warn of long term harm of EU exit. Time to listen to the experts ...https://t.co/i7c8BGfcXY
9.27am BST
GBPUSD up 2.15% today, up about 4.5% since its Thursday lows
9.20am BST
Last night, prime minister David Cameron tried to persuade voters to back his campaign to remain in a reformed European Union.
"At my office, I sit two yards away from the cabinet room where Winston Churchill decided in May 1940 to fight on against Hitler, the greatest decision that anyone has ever made in our country.
Sterling has pared any losses we saw last week. PM Cameron appeared on Question Time yesterday, answering questions from the public regarding the impending referendum and support for 'Remain' has seen the currency strengthen.
9.12am BST
Despite today's rally, the markets are still in a relatively precarious position, says Connor Campbell of City firm SpreadEx:
The slightest sign that the public are shifting in favour of Vote Leave will likely see today's gains rapidly dissipate, while an intensification of pre-referendum nerves as the week goes on could see markets chop and change even without any new polling news.
9.00am BST
Sterling is on course to post its strongest day since the aftermath of the financial crisis.
The pound is holding onto its early gains, and is up 1.6% against the US dollar at $1.458 right now.
Sterling +1.7% vs dollar in early trading today, on track for its biggest one-day rise since 15 October, 2009. pic.twitter.com/64ZZssCjo9
8.53am BST
There are still two referendum debates to look forward to...
What to look out for this week #BREXIT pic.twitter.com/g2f9F39sVH
8.46am BST
Today's stock market rally looks decisive, but we'll probably see more market turmoil in the next few days
Kit Juckes, the experienced foreign exchange expert at French bank Socii(C)ti(C) Gi(C)ni(C)rale, explains:
Polls remain very even, with the FT's poll tracker showing both camps at 44%.
The market will surely gyrate some more in the next few days as any shift in that position triggers an exaggerated reaction, not just for sterling but for wider risk sentiment.
tighter than a tight thing on national tights day. https://t.co/2l8JfNx9NA pic.twitter.com/UnYgu75o8D
8.41am BST
Ilya Spivak, currency strategist at DailyFX, says there is a global rush into 'risky' assets today.
"The British Pound soared at the start of the week and the Euro followed upward after new polling data released over the weekend showed ebbing support for "Brexit" at this week's UK EU membership referendum. Survation reported a 45 to 42 preference for a "Remain" vote while an analogous poll from YouGov gave the status quo a 44 to 43 percent lead.
"The outcomes likewise bolstered risk appetite. The sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars tracked stocks upward while the anti-risk Japanese Yen plunged. The likewise haven-linked US Dollar is also under pressure. Gold prices and US 10-year Treasury futures likewise swooned as capital flowed away from safety-seeking assets.
8.34am BST
Here's the best-performing shares in the City this morning:
8.33am BST
The London stock market has hit its highest level since 10 June, as this morning's rally wipes out recent losses.
8.10am BST
Britain's FTSE 100 index has surged by 136 points at the start of trading, as City investors react to the polls showing the Remain campaign gaining ground.
Almost every share is gaining ground, as money pours back into shares, pushing the benchmark index up by over 2%.
A positive European open comes as weekend Brexit polls (and bookies' odds) suggest the Remain campaign regaining some lost ground and in some cases re-taken the lead ahead of Thursday's UK referendum vote on EU membership.
A higher chance of the UK voting to stay is a relief for markets (equities and the pound sterling) that had been preparing themselves for a Leave vote and the uncertainty it could inflict from both a financial, economic and political standpoint.
8.01am BST
And we're off! European stock markets are opening sharply higher, with financial stocks leading the way......
8.00am BST
Today's newspaper front pages show how the EU referendum campaign picked up last night:
Monday's Guardian:
I need to make better EU case, says Cameron#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/n39YvAhO92
Revised Times front page:
Brexit camp divided as senior Tory walks out#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/LyoYwZpMO2
Monday's Telegraph front page -
Boris: Vote Leave, change history#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #EUref pic.twitter.com/oMyQHOkQEg
7.55am BST
Sterling is rallying hard this morning - another sign that Brexit worries are easing.
The pound has jumped more than two cents, or 1.5%, to $1.4572, after weekend opinion polls showed the Remain campaign picking up more support.
In the UK, there were three surveys released over the weekend that all showed some swing back towards 'Remain'. The Survation poll showed a 45/42 lead for 'Remain' (up from 42/45 previously), a YouGov Poll showed a 44/42 lead (42/44 previously) while Opinium stood at 44/44 equal split.
Those polls were all conducted around the tragic events of last week - with some responses coming in before and some after the murder of Jo Cox.
GBP outperforms in FX markets after the latest batch of polls show a lead for the 'remain' camp ahead of Thursday's referendum
7.43am BST
Here's a round-up of the latest referendum opinion polls (from our EU referendum liveblog):
7.41am BST
Stock markets across Asia have soared today, as investors grew more confident that the British public will vote to remain in the EU.
Japan's Nikkei 225 index led the way, gaining almost 2.3% today.
Risk-on start to a high-risk week: #Japan's Nikkei ends up 2.3% at 15965.30 while safe haven Yen weakens vs Dollar. pic.twitter.com/35c3LaCXa0
The entire market is now focused on the UK's EU referendum result....
It is expected that a vote to remain would lead to a quick unwinding of risk premium and a substantial risk-on rally, whereas a Brexit vote would have the opposite effect."
7.28am BST
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
It's a crucial week for investors around the globe, as the long-running UK referendum campaign enters its final days.
Our European opening calls:$FTSE 6182 up 161
$DAX 9855 up 224
$CAC 4297 up 103$IBEX 8574 up 212$MIB 17190 up 267
Related: EU referendum live: Warsi swaps sides over 'nudge-nudge xenophobia'
Weekend Brexit polls suggesting we're back to neck-n-neck and #FTSE100 is back to middle of May 6050-6300 range pic.twitter.com/2Tu7iIE4rY
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